The Trade Indicators Project (TIP)

1
The Trade Indicators Project (TIP)

• An OECD horizontal and international project for
  creating a web-based, interactive research tool

2
The basic philosophy

• Globalisation analysis requires
  cross-disciplinary thinking and approaches
• A wealth of information needs to be
• Sighted
• Sorted
• Analysed
• Validated
• Bring separate database together in one
  application without duplication

3
Progress made

• There was strong agreement that there is growing
  demand for trade indicators and that the OECD
  should and could play a very useful role in this
  context.
• A statistical project, such as the TIP, with a
  solid methodological underpinning, combining
  different data sources and which could help to
  further advance the research agenda was
  recognized as a major possible tool for the
  international research community.
• OECDs richness of available international
  databases, ready to be used, was recognised as
  well as its competence and expertise in
  methodological questions
• There was agreement that OECDs Roundtable
  approach should be continued and regularly
  reported to the Trade Experts meetings and other
  interested bodies.
• There was a clear understanding that TIP would
  have to be embedded in the OECD.STAT environment.
  This means 2005 at the earliest from a data
  storage point of view.
• The first Web-based pilot version has been
  realised and is in place at the time of writing
  (September 2005).

4
Progress made

• As reported to the 4ht and 5th ITS meeting
• An inventory of available databases at OECD which
  could be used for the purposes of the TIP was
  drawn up by STD
• A first tentative selection of possible
  indicators was drawn up by OECD
• 3 Sources an indicator Taxonomy (prepared by
  L. Iapadre, ICE) was integrated by OECD into the
  Roundtable conclusions and into the work done for
  the HEGI.

5
Achievements during the past 12 months

• A methodological standard framework (see next
  slide) was developed
• Work for the OECD HEGI (Aspects of trade
  globalisation Chapter) served also as input into
  TIP
• Thorough research was carried out compiling all
  eligible OECD data sources and data availability
• Validation of data, integration into a Report
  Builder
• Creation of an Interactive, Web-based query tool

6
How does this look like at present?
7
TIP Standard methodological framework
ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT
ÉCONOMIQUES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND
DEVELOPMENT
Dimensions Indicator ID Dimensions Indicator ID Concept Reference Input Output Quality
Data element Comment Concept Reference Input Output Quality
Name of Indicator - name of the indicator, - referenced as OECD indicator ? ?
Definition - short definition ?
Formula ?
Valuation - current / constant price (based year) - exchange rate or PPPs used ? ?
Complexity - technical complexity ?
Data sources - databases used - flow chart - referenced series ? ? ?
Data availability - periodicity - period brackets - area level country / zone ?
Visualisation - graphic trend - country benchmarking ?

• 12 - 14 (a.m.) September 2005
• Beginning at 10.00 a.m. on the first day

13 (p.m.) 15 September 2005 Beginning at 230
p.m. on the first day
STATISTICS DIRECTORATE INTERNATIONAL TRADE
STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS
1
8
Trade indicator groups

1. Trade balance and coverage ratio
2. Trade openness
3. Trade performance indicators
4. Geographic concentration indicators
5. Specialisation
6. Foreign direct investment indicators
7. Foreign controlled affiliates indicators
8. Technology based indicators
9. Trade policy indicators (WTO)
10. Price Indicators
11. Trade intensity and specialisation indicators

9
1. Trade balance and coverage ratio

• Trade balance value (X-M)
• Normalised trade balance ( X-M / XM )
• Coverage ratio (X/M)

2. Trade openness

• Trade-to-GDP-ratio ( XM / GDP )
• Export propensity ( X / GDP )
• Import penetration ration ( M / GDP-XM )
• Trade per capita (XM / POP )

10

• Trade balance and coverage ratio
• Normalised trade balance
• Definition exports minus imports divided by
  exports and imports
• Formula NTB (X-M) / (XM)
• Valuation ANA current and constant prices, BoP
  current prices, ITS current prices
• Conversion ANA / ITS exchange rates, BoP in
  national currency
• Data availability
• Database 1 ITS, Starting year 1961 (depending
  on countries), ending year 2003 (depending on
  countries)
• Database 2 ANA, Starting year 1960 (depending
  on countries), ending year 2003 (depending on
  countries)
• Database 3 BoP, Starting year 1955 (depending
  on countries), ending year 2004 (depending on
  countries)
• Quality assessment The normalised trade balance
  represents a record of countrys international
  transaction with the rest of the world normalised
  on its own total trade. A trade surplus or
  deficit in this analysis is related to total
  trade giving a more pertinent measure of trade
  performance. Its range is normalised between -1
  and 1, which allows unbiased comparisons across
  time, countries and sectors.
• Complexity very simple
• Visualisation bar or column charts

11
3. Trade performance indicators

• Market shares ( xc / Xtotal )
• Export performance (?xc Sa ?Mtotal )

4. Geographic concentration indicators

• Herfindahl index of geographical
  concentrationGeographical distribution of export
  market shares of goods
• Geographical distribution of import penetration
  of goods
• Services trading partners
• .

12
Development of a TIP web tool
Data extraction (SQL queries), data combination
and calculation of the indicators, using XL
Report Builder
Creation of dot.stat format using a macro
(Planned)
13
Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser
(planned)
14
Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser
(planned)
15
Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser
(planned)
16
Access to the TIP data viaOECD.Stat Browser
(planned)
Save in xls-Format
And/or save query
17
Interactive graphic presentation (planned)

• The trade indicators will be probably made
  available as macromedia flash objects (.swf)
  embedded in .html
• This will allow interactivity in the graphics
• The graphs will be produced using XCelsius
  graphic software
• examples

18
Examples of interactive graphs

• Trade balance vs. normalised TB
• Trade per capita, trade per capita to propensity
• Export performance
• Export/import propensity
• Trade balance to GDP
• Market shares
• Geographical origin of import penetration

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
19
Directions for further research

• Trade plus indicators, that is trade plus
  production (e.g. trade orientation measures),
  trade plus employment (e.g. correlation of trade
  and employment indicators, trade plus FDI/trade
  by foreign-affiliated firms (e.g. globalisation
  strategies).
• More Trade in Services data is needed containing
  cross tabulations by products and partner
  countries.
• Better integration of databases and Analytical
  Nomenclatures, e.g. by technology and factor
  intensity.
• Links of customs sources with enterprise
  structural statistics, as discussed at the 6th
  ITS meeting to allow building up micro data on
  enterprise-characteristics, performance and
  related trade.
• Trade intensity and specialisation indicators.