Donald JR MacRae

1
Scotlands Business GrowthEnterprise and
Culture CommitteeThe Scottish Parliament

• Donald JR MacRae
• Lloyds TSB Scotland
• 12th April 2005

2
Scotland - The Gap?
No. of Comparators 30 18 11 21 26 9 29 30 30
29 28 15
Scotlands Quartile Position in OECD Countries
2002
4 3 2 1
Not in education, employment or training.
Source Measuring Scotlands Progress Towards
Smart, Successful Scotland 2004.
3
GDP per Capita - 2002 PPPs
high income high middle income group
low middle income group group 101-120
51-100 over 120
Note Scotland estimated at 94.6 of UK.
Source OECD (2004), DTI Regional
Competitiveness State of the Regions (May 2004).
4
International Comparisons of GDP Growth 1973 -
2001
Source Goudie (2003).
5
Key Drivers of Productivity Improvement

• Human capital
• Physical capital
• Innovation
• Enterprise
• Competitiveness

6
Population Trends Scotland and UK, 1951-2011
Index1995 100
UK Scotland
Source Scottish Executive (2000).
7
Scotlands Birthrate in a European Context
Total Fertility Rate 2001
Children per woman
Source Turner, A., Reflections on the Allander
Series. (2004).
8
Assumed Annual Long Term Migration by
AgeScotland 2006-2007 onwards
Persons
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000
0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39
40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65 over
Years of Age
Source Experian Business Strategies, March 2005.
9
GDP per Hour Worked 2001
Source Scottish Economic Report November 2004.
10
Scotland - Skills and Learning
Indicator
Quartile Position
Comparators 4 3
2 1
working age population in employment
OECD 16-19 year olds NEET
OECD 20-24 year olds with at least NVQ
3 UK young people with adequate skills
(PISA) OECD working age
population in education, training UK or
employment
Not in education, employment or training.
Source Measuring Smart Successful Scotland
(2004). Training and Employment Unit, University
of Glasgow.
11
Business R D Expenditure
1995 - 99
Source Crafts and OMahony (2001) and DTI (2001).
12
New Business Activity
Ireland
United Kingdom
Scotland
Source Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, Scotland
2003.
13
Aggregate Government Expenditure
share in GDP, 1978-79 to 2002-03
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86
-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-9
5 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03
Scotland
UK
Source Goudie (2002). Scottish Executive, GERS
2002-2003.
14
Aggregate Government Expenditure Share GDP 2003
Source Verhulst et al. (2005). GERS 2002-2003
Authors calculation
15
Scotland - The Gap?
No. of Comparators 30 18 11 21 26 9 29 30 30
29 28 15
Scotlands Quartile Position in OECD Countries
2002
4 3 2 1
Not in education, employment or training.
Source Measuring Scotlands Progress Towards
Smart, Successful Scotland 2004.