How Humber can flourish in an ever more global economy Hamish McRae

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How Humber can flourish in an ever more global
economy Hamish McRae

• Five great medium-term global shifts and
• their implications for the world of finance
• Three big questions about the future

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If you want a clear answer
George Bernard Shaw
If all the economists in the world were laid
end to end, they still wouldn't reach a
conclusion.
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don't ask an economist!

• But there are some sensible things to be said
• Be clear about what we do know, but
• be honest about what we cannot know
• Identify long-term global trends, but ...
• be sensitive to local need and objectives

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Some structure

• Humber as an important economic region
• What is happening in the world economy
• Britain's role as a hub of globalization
• How Humber might think about its special position

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If Humber were a country

• About the 69th largest economy in the world
• a bit bigger than Bulgaria
• It would be about number 20 in GDP per head
• There would be six smaller economies in the EU!

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it would be very well-placed

• Obvious strength in communications
• intriguing options in education
• A favourable cost and environmental base
• A huge market (called the UK) on its doorstep

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The changing world economy

• An ageing developed world
• Rising concern about the environment
• A shift of economic power to Asia
• Technology flattens the playing field
• Governments seek to regulate better

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What does this mean for business?

• The UK will "age" but will remain competitive
• though with regional variations
• Huge pressure to use all resources better
• including young people as well as old
• and to cope with regional stresses
• Older values will become more important

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Rising environmental concerns

• We can glimpse the end of the oil era
• Uncertain supplies, coupled with
• huge demand from the US, China and India
• Climate change concern will increase
• but basic trade and transport will continue

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Is world oil production about to peak?
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What does this mean for business?

• A gradual shift in energy and climate outcomes
• but a faster one in attitudes - and in power
• Being "green" protects against legal and PR
  attacks
• Business is central to achieving a greener
  society
• but must also be sensitive to people's desires

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Globalization is our friend

• The two new giants China and India
• Together - a huge shift in power in the world
• But Britain is a huge beneficiary
• provided it can justify is cost structure
• So we have to improve our education
• and - crucially - our infrastructure

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What does this mean for business?

• We have to recognize where our advantages lie
• and where we are failing
• Huge global competition for talent
• so we have to attract as well as develop it
• Our strengths education and entrepreneurship
• but the need to learn too

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The revolution in technology

• This is change the world time
• It is a global level playing field
• The new technologies are deeply democratic
• But we can innovate and apply
• if we can generate the new ideas

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What does this mean for business?

• The communications revolution has hardly begun
• already as many teleworkers as factory workers
• Daily commuting will decline as
• the home becomes a factory (and the office a
  club)
• Location within Britain matters somewhat less
• but Humber will be well-positioned anyway

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Government in the 21st century

• Huge financial pressures as demands rise
• and revenues are cut away
• So government becomes an enabler, nudging society
  
• It must strive for light but effective regulation
  
• and more effective innovation

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Britain and globalisation

• London has become the most "global" place on
  earth
• That has created huge wealth for the region
• but it has also increased costs and congestion
  
• and rendered it vulnerable to a global downturn
• Problems and opportunities for other regions

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What does this mean for Humber?

• A successful region in many ways
• with a special and privileged location
• Issue one how best to service the south-east
  boom
• Issue two how to boost local centres of
  excellence
• Issue three where are hidden competitive
  advantages
• Issue four how to cope with pockets of
  difficulty
• Issue five how to use heritage to advantage

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How Humber can flourish in an ever more global
economy Hamish McRae

• Five great medium-term global shifts and
• their implications for the world of finance
• Three big questions about the future