Phenology and Species Distributions

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Phenology and Species Distributions
A QUEST CLASSIC workshop, Exeter, 28.
29.11.2005

• Isabelle Chuine1, Xavier Morin1 and Nicolas
  Viovy2
• Centre dEcologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive,
  CNRS Montpellier France, www.cefe.cnrs.fr
• Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de
  lEnvironnement, CEA-CNRS, Saclay

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PHENOFITA process-based model

• Principle
• Based on the concept of fitness, probability of
  an individual to leave viable and fertile
  offspring
• Based on the fact that adaptation of plants to
  the abiotic environment require synchronization
  of the developmental cycle to the seasonal
  variations of climate
• Input
• daily climatic data over several decades (TC,
  precipitation, )
• Output
• probability of presence potential distribution
  (biotic interactions not taken into account)

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PHENOFIT
Chuine Beaubien 2001, Morin Chuine 2005)
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What you need to know to run Phenofit

• phenology budburst, flowering, fruit
  maturation, leaf coloring
• frost hardiness minimum temperature sustained
  during active growth and dormancy
• drought tolerance

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Process based models implemented in PHENOFIT

• Phenological models for budburst, flowering,
  fruit maturation (leaf coloration date is so far
  obtained by regression with latitude) (Chuine
  2000, Chuine Beaubien 2001)
• Frost damage model (Leinonen 1996)

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Model performance
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What does limit western white pine distribution?
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Pinus strobus
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Model performance
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Genetic differentiation
Pinus contorta
Pinus contorta
Not taken into account
Taken into account
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Model performance
Acer circinatum Acer grandidentatum Acer
macrophyllum Acer glabrum
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Models performance
Populus tremuloides
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Lodgepole pine Pinus contorta
B2 HadCM3 2100 2.2C
A2 HadCM3 2100 5.0C
PHENOFIT
colonisation
extinction
fitness
fitness
colonisable
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Sugar maple - Acer saccharum
B2 HadCM3 2100 2.2C
A2 HadCM3 2100 5.6C
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Comparison with other modelsQuaking aspen
Niche-based model Iverson Prasad 1998
Process-based model PHENOFIT
Present
GISS GCM x2 CO2
HadCM3 2.2C
-20 -15 -5 -1 1 5 20
ext. -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 col.
Change in P. V.