Fuzzy Cognitive Mapbased Scenario Planning

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Fuzzy Cognitive Map-based Scenario Planning

• Supervisor M. Shamim Khan
• Co-supervisor Shri Rai .
• Sebastian Khor

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Outline

• Introduction to scenario planning
• Proposed system
• Fuzzy Cognitive Map modelling
• Example result
• Conclusion

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What is Scenario Planning

• Method of studying the most important driving
  forces affecting our futures.
• A team process that encourages exchange of
  knowledge and issues important to the future
• Purpose To devise strategies to counter
  adversities and anticipate potential
  opportunities
• Deliverables A set of scenarios and a set of
  strategies for each scenario
• Examples Military, business, environmental
  study, politics

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Proposed scenario planning system
Determine time frame
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Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM)

• FCMs are fuzzy signed digraphs
• Nodes represent concepts, variables, or events
• Edges or arcs represent causal influence of a
  node to another
• Arrowheads represent direction of causal
  influence
• Constructed using expert knowledge or
  Differential Hebbian Learning

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FCM - contd

• Nodes may have different states, represented by
• discrete intervals 0,1 or -1,0,1
• real values 0,1 or -1,1

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FCM - contd

• Strengths of edges are represented by
• discrete intervals -1,0,1
• real values -1,1

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FCM Learning
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FCM simulations

• FCM allows feedback

A simple FCM
Results of FCM simulation
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FCM combination

• Can combine FCMs additively

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FCM 1
FCM 2
Combined FCM
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Example simulation result on Violence and social
unrest
Van der Heijden (1996), Scenarios, The Art of
Strategic conversation, in Gill Ringland
(2002), Scenarios in Business, John Willey Sons.
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Conclusion

• Proposed system saves time and hastens planning
  process
• Continuous monitoring of events unfolding is
  simpler via FCM simulation
• Essential visualization aids
• Combination of individual planners views is a
  simple additive combination of FCMs
• Limitation in learning capacity

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Questions? Feedback?

• Thank you