Accessibility and spatial development in Switzerland 19502000

1
Accessibility and spatial development
in Switzerland 1950-2000

• Martin Tschopp, Philipp Fröhlich and Kay W.
  Axhausen
• IVT
• ETH Zürich
• Paris
• June 2005

2
Introduction

• Project Development of the Transit Transport
  System and its Impact on Spatial Development in
  Switzerland
• within COST 340 Towards a European Intermodal
  Transport Network Lessons from History
• Project partners
• Via Storia , Universität Bern
• Institut d'histoire, Université de Neuchâtel

3
Goal

• General statements about spatial development and
  accessibility and
• its development during the last 50 years
• Following aspects are of interest
• - population and its distribution
• - accessibility and its development
• - influence of accessibility on spatial
  development

4
Development of population in municipalities
5
Population growth in different decades
decades
6
65 years old 1960
Deviation in to the national mean
7
65 years old 1980
Deviation in to the national mean
8
65 years old 2000
Deviation in to the national mean
9
Accessibility
Accessibility is defined as (Geurs and Ritsema
van Eck, 2001) the extent to which the
land-use transport system enables groups of
individuals or goods to reach activities or
destinations by means of a combination of
transport modes.
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Accessibility Potential approach

• AccPopi accessibility to people living in
  municipality, i
• Aj the number of residents of municipality, j
• cij travel time by private vehicle between the
  municipality i and municipality, j
• ß exponent

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Road based accessibility 1950
12
Road based accessibility 1970
13
Road based accessibility 2000
14
Railroad based accessibility 1950
15
Railroad based accessibility 1970
16
Railroad based accessibility 2000
17
Difference accessibility individiual transport
1950-2000
18
Difference accessibility public transport
1950-2000
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Hierarchic growth model theory (1)

where
and
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Hierarchic growth model theory (2)

• where
• y relative development of population
• ß1,2 parmeter
• x0 constant
• x1 absolute development of accessibility
• u residual
• e residual
• i level 1 (municipality)
• j level 2 (Kanton)

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Hierarchic growth model theory (3)
t5
t4
t3
Spatial structure
t2
t0
t1
accessibility
22
Hierarchic growth model Regression Cantons
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Conclusion

• Population development reacts in rural areas very
  elastic on accessibility change
• Accessibility (on a high level) has in urban
  areas no important influence on settlement
  patterns
• People react elastic on changes of working place
  accessibility
• consequence population loss in rural and alpine
  areas, continuous increase of population in rural
  areas between the major agglomerations

24
Future work

• A finer allocation of the regions into the
  hierarchical model
• Calibration of factor, ß, for the potential
  function over time
• Influence of other variables (e. g. Start
  conditions of a region, structural changes of the
  economy, amount of taxes, subsidies)

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Literatur

• De Vries, J. (1984) European Urbanization,
  Methuen and Co., London.
• Fotheringham, A. S., C. Brunsdon and M. Charlton
  (2000) Quantitative Geography, The Cromwell Press
  Ltd, Trowbridge.
• Froehlich, Ph., T. Frey, S. Reubi and H. U.
  Schiedt (2004) Entwicklung des Transitverkehrssyst
  ems und deren Auswirkung auf die Raumnutzung in
  der Schweiz (COST 340) Verkehrsnetz-Datenbank,
  Arbeitsbericht Verkehrs- und Raumplanung, 208,
  IVT, ETH Zürich, Zürich.
• Geurs, K. T. and J. R. Ritsema van Eck (2001)
  Accessibility measures review and applications,
  RIVM report, 408505006, National Institute of
  Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven.
• Schuler, M. and R. Nef (1983) Räumliche
  Typologien des schweizerischen Zentren-Peripheriem
  usters, NFP Bericht Regionalprobleme in der
  Schweiz, 35, Bern.
• Tschopp, M., P. Keller, H.U. Schiedt, T. Frey,
  S. Reubi und K. W. Axhausen (2003) Raumnutzung in
  der Schweiz Eine historische Raumstruktur-Datenba
  nk, Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und Raumplanung,
  165, IVT, ETH Zürich, Zürich.

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Annex Hierarchic growth model Residuals
28
Annex Extended growth model (1)
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Annex Accessibility and Population over 65 years
old
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Annex Accessibility and Total population