TFORS

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TFORS TASK FORCE FOR OZONE REDUCTION
STRATEGIES Institute for Multidimensional Air
Quality Studies (IMAQS) http//www.aqm.uh.edu/ Di
rector Daewon Byun TFORS Coordinator Alex
Cuclis Emissions Specialist Soontae Kim
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TFORS TOPICS

• Sensitivity Analysis Summary,
• 1-hour and 8-hour
• 2. 1-hour vs. 8-hour plots
• 3. Combined Reductions
• 4. Comments from TCEQ modelers
• 5. HGA area and non-road emissions
• 6. Area and Non-road emissions plots
• 7. Summary
• 8. Discussion Items

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Sensitivity Analysis Summary, 1-hour and 8-hour
Please note that these are sensitivity studies
done to identify responses of the model, and are
not the same as specific control strategies used
that might be used in the state implementation
plan. Sensitivity analyses can generally show
where the problem areas are, but cannot, by
themselves, be used to create policy.
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2007 Emission Rates
Units tons/day
4 km domain
5035
5000
HGA 8 counties
4000
3000
2263
2000
1013
1000
449
0
NOX
VOC
NOX
VOC
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2007 Emission Rates
Units tons/day
4 km domain
5000
VOC
4308
4000
NOx
3000
2000
Texas domain
867
709
1000
249
269
261
0
Bio
Point
Mobile
Area
Non-road
AREA
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2007 Emission Rates
8 counties
Units tons/day
2000
VOC
1733
NOx
1500
1000
418
500
215
190
181
0
Bio
Point
Mobile
Area
Non-road
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Sensitivity Analysis Summary, 1-hour and 8-hour

• The following tables show the impact of reducing
  emissions from each of the five major categories
• Mobile
• Point
• Area
• Non-road
• Biogenics
• on the maximum 1-hour and 8-hour ozone values,
  using the TCEQs projected 2007 emissions
  inventories for Aug. 25, 29, 30 and 31, 2000.

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Impact of 100 Reductions on 1-Hour Ozone
- below 125 ppb limit
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Impact of 100 Reductions on 8-Hour Ozone
- below 85 ppb limit
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CAMx Drop in Ozone 1-Hour Ozone
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CAMx Drop in Ozone 8-Hour Ozone
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1-Hour vs. 8-Hour Ozone
Note Going from a 1 hour average to an 8 hour
average substantially lowers the maximum ozone
value.
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1-hour vs. 8-hour plots
The following plots compare 1-hour maximum ozone
(top) to 8-hour maximum ozone (bottom) at
specific times during the day, for four days in
August 2000, using the TCEQs 2007 projected
inventory. In some cases the peak ozone area
shifts in location. Typically the 8 hour peak
ozone occurs about 2 hours after the one hour
peak ozone. Note that the scales on the plots
shown on the following slides are not the same.
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Aug. 25 1-hr ozone 174 ppb
Aug. 29 1-hr ozone 134 ppb
Aug. 25 8-hr ozone 98 ppb
Aug. 29 8-hr ozone 91 ppb
Note Each plot has a different scale.
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Aug. 30 1-hr ozone 144 ppb
Aug. 31 1-hr ozone 136 ppb
Aug. 30 8-hr ozone 111 ppb
Aug. 31 8-hr ozone 111 ppb
Note Each plot has a different scale.
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Maximum1-hour vs. 8-hour plots
The following plots compare 1-hour maximum ozone
(top) to 8-hour maximum ozone (bottom) occuring
at any time during the day, for four days in
August 2000, using the TCEQs 2007 projected
inventory.
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Aug. 25 1-hr ozone 174 ppb
Aug. 29 1-hr ozone 134 ppb
Aug. 25 8-hr ozone 98 ppb
Aug. 29 8-hr ozone 91 ppb
Note Each plot has a different scale. Red
areas indicates exceedence.
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Aug. 30 1-hr ozone 144 ppb
Aug. 31 1-hr ozone 136 ppb
Aug. 30 8-hr ozone 111 ppb
Aug. 31 8-hr ozone 111 ppb
Note Each plot has a different scale. Red
areas indicates exceedence.
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Combined Reductions
In many cases removing 100 of the emissions
from one of the five major emissions categories
still does not bring the ozone level into
compliance. However there are several cases
where removing emissions from two or three of the
categories will achieve compliance. The next
two slides provide some examples for the 1-hour
and 8-hour standard.
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Impact of 100 Combined Reductions on 1-Hour Ozone
- below 125 ppb limit
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Impact of 100 Combined Reductions on 8-Hour Ozone
- below 85 ppb limit
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Comments from TCEQ Modelers

• These runs were made for the express purpose of
  assessing the sensitivity of the model to changes
  in the input (in this case, components of the
  inventory). They can help guide you towards
  finding areas where controls will be the most
  effective, but are not in themselves evaluations
  of control strategies.
• 2. Make more realistic scenarios (eg. reduce
  xylene in gasoline by 50, etc.)

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Comments from TCEQ Modelers

• 3. Use a wider suite of metrics (Domain wide
  maximum
• ozone is problematic. Look at ppb-hr, or ppb-hr
  km2.)
• Determine the uncertainty in emissions (test
  results if the inventory is adjusted according to
  uncertainty).
• 5. Look at background emissions (especially for 8
  hour ozone numbers).

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2007 Non-Road and Area Emissions
The plots that are shown in this presentation
are based on removing emissions from the 4 km
domain (or close to it). However, the emissions
for Non-road and Area categories in the following
tables are shown for the 8 county area around
Houston-Galveston, just to provide a point of
reference for what the local non-road and area
emissions sources are.
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2007 Area Emissions for HGA 8 Counties
Data from TCEQ
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2007 Area Emissions for HGA 8 Counties
Data from TCEQ
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2007 Non-Road Mobile Emissions for HGA 8 Counties
Data from TCEQ
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Area and Non-road emissions plots
The following plots show the impact on the
one-hour maximum ozone values when area and
non-road emissions are reduced by 100, in
increments of 25. The emissions are from the
projected 2007 emissions for the 4 km domain
without contributions from Louisiana or off-shore.
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Area Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 25
0 Reduction 169 ppb
25 Reduction 168 ppb
50 Reduction 166 ppb
75 Reduction 164 ppb
100 Reduction 162 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 148 ppb
4 km
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Non-Road Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 25
0 Reduction 169 ppb
25 Reduction 166 ppb
50 Reduction 162 ppb
75 Reduction 156 ppb
100 Reduction 152 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 148 ppb
4 km
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Area Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 25
0 Reduction 174 ppb
25 Reduction 173 ppb
50 Reduction 172 ppb
75 Reduction 171 ppb
100 Reduction 170 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 160 ppb
1 km
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Non-Road Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 25
0 Reduction 174 ppb
25 Reduction 173 ppb
50 Reduction 170 ppb
75 Reduction 167 ppb
100 Reduction 164 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 160 ppb
1 km
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Area Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 29
0 Reduction 130 ppb
25 Reduction 129 ppb
50 Reduction 128 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 116 ppb
75 Reduction 126 ppb
100 Reduction 125 ppb
4 km
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Non-Road Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 29
0 Reduction 130 ppb
25 Reduction 128 ppb
50 Reduction 127 ppb
75 Reduction 124 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 116 ppb
100 Reduction 121 ppb
4 km
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Area Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 29
0 Reduction 134 ppb
25 Reduction 133 ppb
50 Reduction 132 ppb
75 Reduction 131 ppb
100 Reduction 130 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 123 ppb
1 km
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Non-road Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 29
0 Reduction 134 ppb
25 Reduction 133 ppb
50 Reduction 132 ppb
75 Reduction 130 ppb
100 Reduction 128 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 123 ppb
1 km
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Area Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 30
0 Reduction 144 ppb
25 Reduction 143 ppb
50 Reduction 143 ppb
75 Reduction 143 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 140 ppb
100 Reduction 143 ppb
4 km
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Non-Road Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 30
0 Reduction 144 ppb
25 Reduction 143 ppb
50 Reduction 142 ppb
75 Reduction 141 ppb
100 Reduction 141 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 140 ppb
4 km
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Area Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 30
0 Reduction 144 ppb
25 Reduction 143 ppb
50 Reduction 142 ppb
75 Reduction 140 ppb
100 Reduction 139 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 125 ppb
1 km
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Non-road Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 30
0 Reduction 144 ppb
25 Reduction 141 ppb
50 Reduction 137 ppb
75 Reduction 134 ppb
100 Reduction 130 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 125 ppb
1 km
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Area Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 31
0 Reduction 129 ppb
25 Reduction 130 ppb
50 Reduction 129 ppb
75 Reduction 129 ppb
100 Reduction 129 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 121 ppb
4 km
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Non-road Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 31
0 Reduction 129 ppb
25 Reduction 128 ppb
50 Reduction 126 ppb
75 Reduction 124 ppb
100 Reduction 121 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 121 ppb
4 km
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Area Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 31
0 Reduction 136 ppb
25 Reduction 135 ppb
50 Reduction 135 ppb
75 Reduction - 134
100 Reduction 133 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 123 ppb
1 km
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Non-road Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 31
0 Reduction 136 ppb
25 Reduction 133 ppb
50 Reduction 131 ppb
75 Reduction 128 ppb
100 Reduction 125 ppb
0 area, 0 nr 123 ppb
1 km
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Summary of Recent Modeling Results
Maximum ozone concentrations in ppb
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Summary

• Sensitivity runs on major inventory items are
  complete.
• The 8 hour standard at 80 ppb is more difficult
  to reach than the 1 hour standard at 120 ppb, and
  is much closer to background ozone levels.
• Consider recommending to the TCEQ control
  strategies, new metrics or general comments based
  on sensitivity runs.

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Discussion Areas

• The TCEQ has suggested that we look at emissions
  that may have been missed, or problems with the
  model.
• Comment period is December 2003. (Final approval
  will be in May 2004). What, if anything, can
  TFORS recommend to the TCEQ? Is a joint
  statement possible? (JW, others?)
• 3. Original charter for TFORS was to end at the
  end of the mid-course review. Do we want to
  continue and work with 8-hour issues?
• 4. Do we develop control strategies, metrics or
  something else?
• 5. What do we model next, with what objective?