Monetary Policy

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• Monetary Policy

Kapittel 27
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Temaer i kapittel 27

• Hvorfor er sentralbanker uavhengige
• Gain then pain eller piss i buksa effekten
• Pengepolitikk
• Pengepolitikk or realøkonomi

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Pengepolitikk Lars Svenssons rapport til NZ
Reserve Bank

• People typically ask too much of monetary policy
  no less in New Zealand than elsewhere. In the
  long run, monetary policy can only control
  nominal variables such as inflation and the
  nominal exchange rate. An attempt to increase the
  average level of growth rate of GDP or employment
  would trigger ever rising inflation, at
  increasing costs to the economy in terms of less
  efficient resource allocation and arbitrary and
  unequitable redistributions of income and assets.
  For these reasons, an increasing number of
  countries have specified price stability as the
  primary goal of monetary policy.

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Politiske konjuntkursykluser

• Politikere må sørge for å bli gjenvalgt, og i
  denne sammenhengen er den økonomiske situasjonen
  viktig
• Vanlig med stimulering av økonomien like før
  valg, som skaper inflasjon på litt sikt (time
  inconsistency) og reduserer troverdighet
• Sentralbanken skal være uavhengig og ikke på
  valg fra en periode til neste

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Inflation New Zealand

• What is inflation?
• When prices on average go up, that's inflation.
  The fundamental cause of ongoing inflation is too
  much money chasing too few goods. Inflation
  usually happens when the economy is too buoyant,
  so that shortages of labour and materials become
  widespread, and prices in general rise. Then
  money starts losing its value. Typically an
  inflation-linked boom is followed by a bust.
• If prices rise faster than incomes, then people
  are worse off. As well, if interest paid on
  savings is less than inflation, then the interest
  is inadequate to compensate people for the fact
  that the value of their savings is being eaten
  away.
• Inflation also does long-term damage to the
  economy. When money doesn't hold its value,
  businesses and investors have more difficulty
  making contracts, especially where contracts have
  to last over time, eg employment contracts and
  borrowing. This discourages long-term, quality
  investment in the nation's productive capacity.

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Reserve bank of New Zealand
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PTA New Zealand

• The current PTA has four sections. The first says
  that monetary policy shall maintain "stability in
  the general level of prices, so that monetary
  policy can make its maximum contribution to
  sustainable economic growth, employment and
  development opportunities within the New Zealand
  economy."
• The second section says that the Bank's inflation
  target shall be 0 to 3 per cent, defined in terms
  of the All Groups Consumers Price Index (CPI), as
  published by Statistics New Zealand.
• Section 3 says that, from time to time,
  extraordinary events will occur which will push
  inflation above or below the 0 to 3 per cent
  inflation target. The section says that when this
  happens monetary policy shall aim to stop the
  one-off inflationary or deflationary effect of
  the extraordinary event triggering more general
  inflation or deflation.
• The final section describes how the Reserve Bank
  shall implement and be accountable for its
  decisions. This includes providing explanations
  for any inflation breaches, or projected
  breaches, in the Bank's quarterly Monetary Policy
  Statements. This section also says that, as it
  implements monetary policy to achieve price
  stability, the Bank "shall seek to avoid
  unnecessary instability in output, interest rates
  and the exchange rate."

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Økt rente ved overoppheting
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Gain then pain eller PIBE
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Phillips kurven er død!
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Uavhengighet og inflasjon
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Just right, too hot or too cold?
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Pengeetterspørsel

• Pengeetterspørsel viser hvor mye penger man vil
  holde ved en gitt rente
• Penger gir ikke rente, slik at tapt rente er en
  alternativkostnad ved å plassere deler av sin
  formue i penger
• Det er derfor negativ sammenheng mellom rente og
  pengeetterspørsel

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Pengeetterspørsel
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Rentenivå over tid
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Pengeetterspørsel
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Pengetilbud
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Andre instrumenter

• Discount rate renten bankene betaler på lån i
  the Fed
• I Norge bruker Norges Bank foliorenten for å
  styre rentenivået
• Reservekrav påvirker også rentenivå

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Norges Bank og renter
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Renter og valuta

• I et system med flytende valutakurser vil renten
  som vi har sett påvirke valutakursen
• Med faste valutakurser må renten være identisk
  slik det var i EU selv før innføringen av Euro
• Ustabile kurser kan redusere handel
• Faste valutakurser kan være et viktig element i
  prisstabilitet