How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?

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How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?

• Brian Enke
• SwRI
• Boulder, CO
• benke_at_boulder.swri.edu
• AUTHOR
• Shadows of Medusa

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Brainstorming....

• Follow any thread of thought.
• Never ridicule or dismiss any idea.
• Write everything down!!

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How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost?

• Paul Recer (AP), Gregg Easterbrook (New
  Republic), et al
• ONE TRILLION DOLLARS
• Huh???

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How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost?

• Bob Zubrin, et al
• ABOUT TWO BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR
• INVESTMENT per YEAR!

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How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost?

• President Bush, Sean O'Keefe, et al
• PAY AS YOU GO
• 6 billion per year?

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How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?

2b / year? 6b / year? More? Less? Somewhere
inbetween?
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• All of these estimates are possible.
• US deficit spending
• (PAYG PWCWA)
• CHEAPER MISSIONS ARE EASIER TO SELL
• What IS a Mars Mission, anyway?

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How Low Can We Go?

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Well, What Do You Want To Do?

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We Need....

• A Baseline Mission!!
• Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)

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We Need....

• A Baseline Mission!!
• Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on
  Investment)
• Risk assessment

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We Need....

• A Baseline Mission!!
• Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on
  Investment)
• Risk assessment
• Timeframe

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We Need....

• A Baseline Mission!!
• Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on
  Investment)
• Risk assessment
• Timeframe
• Investment per year

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Baseline Mission Mars Direct(NASA estimates
from 2003)

• ROI Good science
• Crew of 4 for 2 years
• 500 km surface range
• Payload 54 tonnes
• Risk Medium
• 7 years to develop
• 3.5 billion / year

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Mars Direct Assumptions(from NASA/ESA study,
Hunt van Pelt, 2003)
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Mars Direct Assumptions(from NASA/ESA study,
Hunt van Pelt, 2003)
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Baseline Mission Assumptions

• Ongoing investment vs. development investment
• Divide mission investment by 2 for ongoing (per
  year)
• 25m/tonne-to-Mars per launch (or 1b/Ares)
• 250m/lander, 1b/ERV

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How Low Can We Go?

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Zero Risk, Zero Investment Mission(Procrastinator
's Paradise)

• ROI No investment
• Crew of 0 for (Inf) years
• 0 km surface range
• Payload 0 tonnes
• Risk Zero
• 0 years to develop
• 0 billion / year

• Do Nothing
• Cancel the whole space program
• Donate space shuttles to museums
• Reduce the US federal deficit by 16 billion (to
  429 billion)

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Robotic Missions(Goodlife)

• Repeat the past 30 years
• Do Mars exploration solely with robotics
• Develop lots of human mission plans and theories
• Give talks at seminars
• Do some remote science to satisfy pesky scientists

• ROI Minimal Science
• Crew of 0 for (inf) years
• 1 km surface range (now)
• Payload lt 5 tonnes
• Risk Low
• 0 years to develop
• 1 billion / year

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Find The Robot
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Absolute Minimal Human Mission(Millionaire
Burial)

• ROI RIP
• Crew of 1 for 0 years
• 0 km surface range
• Payload lt1 tonne
• Risk Low to (Inf)
• 0 years to develop
• 0.1 billion / year

• Send 1 person, crash landing
• No equipment
• No life support
• No return Dead On Arrival

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Minimal Living-Human Mission(Lonely Planets)

• ROI Tech demonstration
• Crew of 1 for 2 years
• 0 km surface range
• Payload 12 tonnes
• Risk Low (volunteer)
• 5 years to develop
• 0.35 billion / year

• Send 1 person safely
• No equipment
• Minimal life support for 1 year (300m hab, no
  CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water)
• No return Die On Mars
• Per Mission 700m

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Long Term Minimal Mission(Settlement)

• ROI Mars settlement
• Crew of 3 for (Inf) years
• 500 km surface range
• Payload 50 tonnes
• Risk Medium (volunteer)
• 7 years to develop
• 2 billion / year

• Send 3 people safely
• Base building equipment
• CELSS life support for 6 years (1b hab, 2 Ares)
• No return Die On Mars
• Per Mission 4b

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Minimal Return Mission(Lonely Science)

• Send 1 scientist safely
• Science equipment, ATV
• Minimal life support for 2 years (300m hab, no
  CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water, 2 Ares)
• Return ERV
• Per Mission 4b

• ROI Minimal Science
• Crew of 1 for 2 years
• 10 km surface range
• Payload 40 tonnes
• Risk High
• 7 years to develop
• 2 billion / year

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Mars Direct

• ROI Good science
• Crew of 4 for 2 years
• 500 km surface range
• Payload 54 tonnes
• Risk Medium
• 7 years to develop
• 3.5 billion / year

• Send 4 people safely
• Science equipment, Rover
• CELSS life support for 2 years (700m hab, 2
  Ares)
• Return ERV
• Per Mission 7b

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NASA Mars Reference Mission(Nuclear Propulsion
is our Best Friend)

• ROI Good science, tech
• Crew of 6 for 2 years
• 500 km surface range
• Payload 100 tonnes
• Risk High
• 10 years to develop
• 6 billion / year

• Send 6 or more people safely
• Science equipment, Rover
• CELSS life support for 2 years (1.5b hab, 3
  Ares)
• Return ERV (orbitsurface)
• Per Mission 12b (assume 2b for propulsion)

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How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?

How Low Can We Go?
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Well, What Do You Want To Do?

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We Need....

• A Baseline Mission!!
• Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on
  Investment)
• Risk assessment
• Timeframe
• Investment per year

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http//www.boulder.swri.edu/benke/present/mars/mi
ssioninvest2004.html
This presentation may be freely distributed.
Please contact the author with any suggestions or
corrections.
Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute benke_at_bou
lder.swri.edu Author Shadows of
Medusa www.shadowsofmedusa.com