IMAQS

1
WELCOME
IMAQS Institute for Multidimensional Air
Quality Studies The University of
Houston Director Daewon Byun TFORS Coordinator
Alex Cuclis
2
TFORS AGENDA

• TCEQ Update Jim Smith
• Summary of last meetings results -AC
• 3. The Future 2007 Control Case - AC
• 4. Emissions Processing - SK
• 5. Reductions in Mobile/Point Emissions - AC
• 6. Discussion about results and future Scenarios

3
Summary of last meetings results
UH IMAQS ran CAMx on TCEQs base4a.pt_o2n2_070pbl
, also known as the adjusted base case for 2000
data. The case was adjusted by increasing the
HRVOCs for point sources to match the NOx
emissions and by making some adjustments to the
planetary boundary layer in order to better match
with observations. UH IMAQS ran several
cases 1. base4a.pt_o2n2_070pbl matched
TCEQs results 2. 20 Reduction in Mobile VOCs
although some variations in ozone were
observed, they were small. 3. Doubling of the
number of SUVs variations in ozone were less
than 1 ppb.
4
The Future 2007 Control Case
The TCEQ has developed a Future 2007 Control
Case, which includes an emissions inventory that
reflects the expected emissions in 2007.
5
The Future 2007 Control Case

• Includes most items in listed the SIP, such as
• 80 reduction of NOx from point sources.
• 63 reduction of HRVOCs from Harris county, and
  45 reduction of HRVOCs from other counties.
• Voluntary Mobile Emissions Reduction Program
  (VMEP) - includes alternative fuel program,
  employee trip reduction, public education/ozone
  season fare reduction, sustainable development,
  non-road ozone season reductions, tier II
  locomotive engines, off-road heavy duty diesel
  engine retrofits, and vehicle retirement
  program/vehicle maintenance.
• The NOx reductions associated with TERP
• 8-county 55 mph speed limit.

6
The Future 2007 Control Case

• Items not modeled include
• Energy efficiency gap measures at electric
  generation units very complicated to determine
  specific impacts.
• Rules adopted requiring permits on all
  grandfathered facilities, because impacts wont
  be known until permits are received and accepted.

7
The Future 2007 Control Case
The Future 2007 Control Case does not meet the
ozone attainment standards of the 125 ppm maximum
hourly average. Here are the results from the
high ozone days during the study period
TCEQ acknowledges that additional measures must
be implemented to reach attainment.
8
CAMx modeling domain
TCEQs HGBPA_4km
9
Emissions ratesDomain total emissions
Species
Emissions
Units ton/day
NO
919
NO2
95
5035
5000
CO
3898
ISOP
2496
3898
4000
ETOH
41
MEOH
415
3000
ETH
101
ALD2
227
FORM
18
2000
XYL
91
1013
TOL
81
1000
PAR
1234
OLE
331
0
Units ton/day
NOX
VOC
CO
10
8 Counties ONLY NOx
143 tons/day (31.8)
POINT
MOBILE
129 tons/day (28.7)
BIOGENIC
21 tons/day (4.7)
AREA
156 tons/day (34.7)
Total emissions (TCEQ data) 449 ton/day
11
Emissions rates NOx
Point emissions include the elevated ship
emissions
448 ton/day (44.2)
Point
Mobile
172 ton/day (17.0)
Area Biogenic
393 ton/day (38.8)
Total emissions 1013 ton/day
12
Emissions rates CO
Mobile
1311 ton/day (33.6)
Area Biogenic
2298 ton/day (58.9)
Point
290 ton/day (7.4)
Total emissions 3898 ton/day
13
8 Counties ONLY VOC
215 tons/day (9.5)
AREA
86 tons/day (3.8)
MOBILE
BIOGENIC
POINT
1713 tons/day (75.7)
249 tons/day (11.0)
Total emissions (TCEQ data) 2263 ton/day
14
Emissions rates VOC
ISOP
Total emissions 5035 ton/day
ETOH
MEOH
97 ton/day (1.9)
ETH
ALD2
FORM
Mobile
XYL
TOL
Area Biogenic
PAR
Point
OLE
4620 ton/day (91.7)
319 ton/day (6.3)
15
100 on-road mobile emissions reduction case NOx
diurnal variations
17 NOx reduction
Base
After 100 mobile reduction
60
50
40
30
NOx emission rates (ton/hour)
20
10
0
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
Hour (CST)
16
100 on-road mobile emissions reduction case CO
diurnal variations
34 CO reduction
Base
After 100 mobile reduction
350
300
250
200
CO emission rates (ton/hour)
150
100
50
0
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
Hour (CST)
17
100 point emissions reduction case NOx diurnal
variations
44 NOx reduction
Base
After 100 reduction in point emissions
60
50
40
NOx emission rates (ton/hour)
30
20
10
0
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
Hour (CST)
18
100 point emissions reduction case VOC diurnal
variations
6 VOC reduction
Base
After 100 reduction in point emissions
700
600
500
400
VOC emission rates (ton/hour)
300
200
100
0
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
12
24
Hour (CST)
19
Overview of mobile point emissions reduction
Mobile and point sources can contribute to
emissions reductions in NOx by up to 17 and 44
(in mass) CO by up to 34 and 7 VOC by up to
2 and 6, respectively.
After 100 mobile emissions reduction, NOx/CO
ratio will be changed, but VOC/NOx ratio is
almost the same.
20
Model Runs
NOTE Point source emissions referred to in the
following plots include emissions from ships
(typically assigned to area emissions).
21
Mobile Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 25
0 Reduction 169 ppb
25 Reduction 167 ppb
50 Reduction 164 ppb
75 Reduction 159 ppb
100 Reduction 156 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 92 ppb
4 km
22
Point Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 25
0 Reduction 169 ppb
25 Reduction 156 ppb
50 Reduction 141 ppb
75 Reduction 125 ppb
100 Reduction 122 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 92 ppb
4 km
23
Mobile Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 25
0 Reduction 174 ppb
25 Reduction 173 ppb
50 Reduction 172 ppb
75 Reduction 170 ppb
100 Reduction 168 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 90 ppb
1 km
24
Point Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 25
0 Reduction 174 ppb
25 Reduction 159 ppb
50 Reduction 143 ppb
75 Reduction 127 ppb
100 Reduction 118 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 90 ppb
1 km
25
Mobile Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 29
0 Reduction 130 ppb
25 Reduction 129 ppb
50 Reduction 128 ppb
75 Reduction 127 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 72 ppb
100 Reduction 125 ppb
4 km
26
Point Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 29
0 Reduction 130 ppb
25 Reduction 121 ppb
50 Reduction 111 ppb
75 Reduction 98 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 72 ppb
100 Reduction 88 ppb
4 km
27
Mobile Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 29
0 Reduction 134 ppb
25 Reduction 134 ppb
50 Reduction 133 ppb
75 Reduction 132 ppb
100 Reduction 130 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 71 ppb
1 km
28
Point Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 29
0 Reduction 134 ppb
25 Reduction 126 ppb
50 Reduction 115 ppb
75 Reduction 101 ppb
100 Reduction 90 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 71 ppb
1 km
29
Mobile Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 30
0 Reduction 144 ppb
25 Reduction 143 ppb
50 Reduction 141 ppb
75 Reduction 140 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 99 ppb
100 Reduction 139 ppb
4 km
30
Point Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 30
0 Reduction 144 ppb
25 Reduction 140 ppb
50 Reduction 133 ppb
75 Reduction 125 ppb
100 Reduction 112 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 99 ppb
4 km
31
Mobile Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 30
0 Reduction 144 ppb
25 Reduction 141 ppb
50 Reduction 138 ppb
75 Reduction 134 ppb
100 Reduction 130 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 83 ppb
1 km
32
Point Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 30
0 Reduction 144 ppb
25 Reduction 134 ppb
50 Reduction 123 ppb
75 Reduction 112 ppb
100 Reduction 108 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 83 ppb
1 km
33
Mobile Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 31
0 Reduction 129 ppb
25 Reduction 129 ppb
50 Reduction 124 ppb
75 Reduction 126 ppb
100 Reduction 124 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 82 ppb
4 km
34
Point Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 31
0 Reduction 129 ppb
25 Reduction 123 ppb
50 Reduction 116 ppb
75 Reduction 109 ppb
100 Reduction 107 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 82 ppb
4 km
35
Mobile Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 31
0 Reduction 136 ppb
25 Reduction 133 ppb
50 Reduction 131 ppb
75 Reduction - 129
100 Reduction 127 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 88 ppb
1 km
36
Point Reductions 2007 Control Case Aug 31
0 Reduction 136 ppb
25 Reduction 126 ppb
50 Reduction 118 ppb
75 Reduction 111 ppb
100 Reduction 109 ppb
0 mob, 0 pt 88 ppb
1 km
37
Summary of Results
Maximum ozone concentrations in ppb
38
TCEQ Directional Guidance Modeling
Results show that Aug. 25/29 respond best to VOC
controls, but Aug. 30/31 respond best to NOx
controls. A combination of both will be needed
to achieve attainment.
39
Summary

• Even after the SIP controls are implemented,
  reductions of mobile sources had little impact on
  the peak ozone values. 100 reductions reduce
  ozone by only 4 14 ppb, and never got below 125
  ppb.
• Reductions of point sources had a greater impact
  on peak ozone values. 100 reductions gave 27
  56 ppb reductions in peak ozone. However these
  model runs indicate that an additional 75
  reduction in point source emissions would be
  required to come into compliance, if point
  sources were the only selection.
• The amount of reduction of ozone depends on how
  much other precursors are available to react.

40
Discussion Issues

• What is the next step?
• What other scenarios need to be run?
• How will we come up with recommendations to the
  TCEQ?
• What is the timeline?
• Do we need to consider comparing CAMx to CMAQ?