Andy Walker PhD PE

1
"Zero Energy (100 Renewables) Multi-parametric
Cost Optimization" NREL Strategic Energy
Analysis and Applications Center SeminarAugust
9, 2007

• Andy Walker PhD PE
• National Renewable Energy Laboratory

2
Energy Solutions Are Enormously Challenging
Energy Security
Economic Productivity

• Secure supply
• Reliability

• Growth in demand
• Price volatility

Vulnerability or Opportunity
Environmental Impact

• Land and water use
• Carbon emissions

Must address all three imperatives
3
Mounting Evidence
4
Economic development is tightly correlated with
energy consumption
GJ/capita
Effect of Geography
GDP(K)/capita
5
The Future of Energy
1500
Surprise
Geothermal
Solar
1000
Biomass
World Energy Use, (Exajoules )
Wind
Nuclear
500
Hydro
Gas
Oil NGL
Coal
Trad. Bio.
0
1880
1860
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Source Shell, The Evolution of the Worlds
Energy Systems, 1995
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Best Mix of Renewable Energy Technologies Depends
on

• Renewable Energy Resources
• Technology Characterization
• Cost (/kW installed, OM Cost)
• Performance (efficiency)
• State, Utility and Federal Incentives
• Economic Parameters

7
Renewable Energy Technologies Considered

• Photovoltaics (solar electricity)
• Wind Power
• Solar Ventilation Air Preheating
• Solar Thermal
• Biomass
• Boiler for heat
• Cogeneration for electricity
• Daylighting

8
Optimization Problem

• Identify the least cost combination of renewable
  energy technologies to achieve net zero utility
  energy consumption for a facility
• Objective Minimize Life Cycle Cost ()
• Constraint Net Zero Utility Energy Use (0.0 M
  btu/year)
• Microsoft Office Excel Spreadsheet function
  SOLVER
• Precision value of energy use 0.0 /- 0.0001
• Convergence change in life cycle cost less than
  0.0001 for five iterations
• Quadratic Extrapolation to obtain initial
  estimates of the variables in one-dimensional
  search
• Central Derivatives used to estimate partial
  derivatives of the objective and constraint
  functions
• Newtonian Search Algorithm used at each iteration
  to determine the direction to search.

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Geographical Information System (GIS) Datasets

• NREL Datasets
• solar radiation 40x40 km grid
• Horizontal, South-facing vertical, tiltlatitude
• Wind Energy 200mx1000m grid
• Biomass Resources
• Illuminance for Daylighting
• Temperature and Heating Degree Days
• Purchased Datasets
• utility rates for each service territory (Platts)
• State and utility incentives and utility policy
  (from DSIRE)
• Temperature and Heating Degree Day (NREL)
• City Cost Adjustments (RS Means Co)
• Location Independent
• Installed Hardware Costs from NREL technology
  databook
• Economic Parameters (discount rate, inflation
  rate)

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Technology Characterizations

• Power Technologies Energy Data Book
  http//www.nrel.gov/analysis/power_databook
• Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations
  EPRI Topical Report No. TR-109496
  http//www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pba/tech_characteri
  zations.html
• Project experience

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Photovoltaics
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Global PV Shipments

• U.S. National goals
• Solar Be market competitive by 2015 for PV and
  2020 for CSP
• Improved performance through, new materials,
  lower cost manufacturing processes, concentration
• Nanostructures

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Photovoltaics RD
Source NREL 2007
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Photovoltaics
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Wind Power
19
Global Growth of Wind Energy Capacity

• U.S. National goals
• 20 of total provided energy by Wind by 2030
• Improve energy capture by 30
• Decrease costs by 25

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Wind and Marine Energy RD
Source NREL 2007
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New Detailed Maps Being Created
2000
1987
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Wind Power
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Solar Ventilation Air Preheat
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kWh/m2/year
25
Solar Ventilation Air Preheat
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Solar Industrial Process Heat
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Concentrating Solar Power RD
Source NREL 2007
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Solar Industrial Process Heat
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Biomass Energy
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Biofuels RD
Source NREL 2007
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GIS Biomass Resource Information

• Crop residues (dry tonnes/year) corn, wheat,
  soybeans, cotton, sorghum, barley, oats, rice,
  rye, canola, dry edible beans, dry edible peas,
  peanuts, potatoes, safflower, sunflower,
  sugarcane, and flaxseed..
• Orchard and Grape (dry tonnes/year)
• Forest residues (dry tonnes/year)
• Primary mill residues (dry tonnes/year)
• Secondary mill residues (dry tonnes/year)
• Urban wood waste
• Methane emissions from landfills
• Methane emissions from manure management and
• Methane emissions from wastewater treatment.

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Biomass Technologies

• National goals
• Reduce gasoline usage by 20 in ten years
• New feedstocks
• Integrated biorefineries

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Biomass Heat and Electricity
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Daylighting
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Daylighting
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State Policy Framework Renewable Electricity
Standards
Source DSIRE database, March 2007
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Example Net Zero Optimization for Seven
Manufacturing Plants
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Annual Energy from Each Technology at Each Plant
(with Basecase)
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Initial Costs for Each Technology at Each Plant
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Life Cycle Cost of Each Net Zero Plant versus
BaseCase
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Photovoltaics
42
Wind Power
43
Solar Ventilation Air Preheat
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Solar Industrial Process Heat
45
Biomass Energy
46

Daylighting
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Achieving the Right BalanceTechnology
Investment Pathways
Source NREL 2007
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Promise of renewable energy is profound and can
be realized if we

• Aggressively seek a global sustainable energy
  economy
• Accelerate investment in technology innovation
• Commit to consistent and predictable incentives
  for deployment
• Acknowledge and mitigate the carbon challenge
  with the necessary policies

It is a matter of national will and leadership
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Thank You!