Ingen bildrubrik

1
(No Transcript)
2
HIRLAM-6 plan and work

• MoU, Motivations, Targets
• Data assimilation, 3D-VAR and 4D-VAR
• Observation usage
• Parameterisation
• Dynamics
• System and embedding
• Lead Centre for RCR
• Météo-France agreement

3
HIRLAM-6 Memorandum of Understanding

• Targets
• achieve highest possible accuracy for severe
  weather and of wind, precipitation and
  temperature
• develop 3D/4D-VAR further and its use of
  non-conventional data
• maintain the regular analysis/forecasting cycle
• continue development of synoptic model 10-20 km
• develop meso-scale non-hydrostatic operational
  model with suitable physical parameterisation
• Overhaul of complete System
• develop methods for probabilistic forecasting
• continue development of verification methods

4
HIRLAM-6 organisation
HIRLAM Council
Advisory Comittee
Project Leader
Management Group Project Leader Area
leaders System Manager
Data Assimilation algorithms
Model physics
System
Model dynamics
Data Assimilation observation usage
Heads of Research
Overhaul leader
Core group members (8)
Staff (14)
Module responsibles
5
HIRLAM strategy - synoptic

• Synoptic model, 10-20 km, every 6 hours -gt 2 (3)
  days, 4D-VAR and satellite data over a (fairly)
  large area
• provides comprehensive set of forecast parameters
  for applications and driving other models
• boundary conditions and tight coupling to
  meso-scale model
• covers window between ECMWF forecasts - more
  recent observations and boundaries (frames)

6
HIRLAM strategy - meso-scale

• Meso-scale data assimilation and model , 2-3 km
  non-hydrostatic model 3-12 (24 h)
• physics for 2km, explicit convection
• turbulence and radiation non-local (later, 1
  km )
• rapid update cycle, vast amount of regional data
  available, conv/non-conv, reflectivity,
  precipitation ..
• 4D-VAR /3D-VAR FGAT - if in short time - spinup?
• Boundary field impact, transparent boundary cond.
  
• Experiences and plans elsewhere
• 4D-VAR moisture and non-linear effects ECMWF
• UK Workshop Reading 2003, 4D-VAR or EnsKF at 1-3
  km - no known balances at this scale !
• JMA .

7

• Data Assimilation
• 3D-VAR improvements
• FGAT implemented
• improved quality contr background constraint
  (horizontal variation)
• flow dependency - Eady index - estimation (D.
  Dee)
• 4D-VAR developments
• semi-Lagrangian dynamics, SETTLS, gain x 3
• incremental (and multi-) code implemented
• MF regularised physics (Buizza used mainly so far)

8
(No Transcript)
9

• Data Assimilation (cont)
• Surface analysis
• tuning , new statistics)
• snow (OI)
• new data sources for physiography
• soil moisture and temperature (variational,
  ELDAS)
• Observation usage
• Conventional data
• Quality control and monitoring
• Tuning of observation errors
• Non-conventional data
• ATOVS
• AMSU-A bias correction, tuning
• EUMETSAT ATOVS Re-transmission Service
• land/ice, HIRS and AMSU-B
• Ts, emissitivity control variables

10
(No Transcript)
11

• Non-conventional data (cont)
• Quikscat ambiguous winds
• implementation
• Radar winds assimilated
• radial wind super-obs, de-aliasing, QC
• VAD winds, European exchange OPERA
• GPS ZTD prec. Water content
• Profilers -
• impact study done - monitoring, blacklist needed
• SSM/I , MODIS

12

• Forecast model physics
• Turbulence scheme
• revised stable formulation
• moist conservative scheme
• total water potential temperature for the Ri
• coupling with condensation
• statistical cloud scheme

13
In stable conditions
(Non-linear averaging effects)
14
January 1999
15
(No Transcript)
16

• Forecast model physics (cont)
• clouds and condensation
• cloud scheme - statistical - planned in
  turbulence
• micro physics will be worked on later
• RK or STRACO large scale condensation
• surface scheme ISBA
• esat over snow
• soil freezing implemented
• new snow model to be implemented very soon
• new databases - ECOCLIMAP

17
Snow scheme in ISBA main modifications to
original code

• Only new snow scheme on fractions 3 and 4
• Force-restore formulation replaced by heat
  conduction
• Heat capacity of uppermost layer replaced by 1
  cm
• moist soil.
• A second soil layer (7.2 cm)
• Forest area decreased so that at least 10 of
  area
• is low-vegetation
• At present (temporarilly!) no soil freezing
• Forest tile, no modifications

18
ISBA snow covering parts of fractions 3 and 4
snow in beginning of timestep
Snow change

• Features of the snow scheme
• move the snow from fractions 3 and 4 to
  fraction 6 every timestep
• one layer of the snow, with a thermally active
  layer lt 15 cm
• water in the snow, which can refreeze
• varying albedo and density
• mirroring of temperature profile in the ground
  to assure correct memory

Thermally active layer
Ts snow
T snow
Ts 3 and 4
Ts2 3 and 4
Td 3 and 4
Ts2 snow
Td snow
mixing of T in soil between timesteps
Tclim
19
(No Transcript)
20

• Forecast model physics (cont)
• Convection
• STRACO developments implemented
• Kain-Fritsch code as an option - then tested
• Radiation scheme / updates
• Sub grid scale orography
• implement later - after turbulence changes
• alternative, orographic turbulence

21

• Model Dynamics
• Time integration
• Semi-Lagrangian updates, Ritchie-Tanguay T
  equation
• Semi-Lagrangian and physics coupling, Wedi
• NH model
• semi-Lagrangian version (Tartu)
• physics for meso-scale will be provided
• testing and compare external model (under
  discussion)
• Boundary conditions
• Improve current boundary scheme
• Research and development of schemes for
  transparent boundary conditions

22
(No Transcript)
23

• Digital filter initialisation
• Launching (forward), reduced spin up
• Incremental version and spin-up studies
• Blending

24
(No Transcript)
25

• Forecast probabilities
• LAMEPS (ECMWF perturbations) - near real time
  trial
• (LAM singular vectors ?)
• System and Embedding
• implementing developments
• testing of the beta-releases -gt Reference
• Regular Cycle of Reference system - validation -
  FMI RCR
• Efficiency and Overhaul of System - limited work
• Verification methods - development - Workshop
  2004
• Communication and documentation - HeXNeT
• Scientific documentation, Paper planned

26
Lead Centre for Regular Cycle with the Reference

• FMI / HIRLAM agreement
• FMI runs the Reference System as operational
  model
• Is the RCR of HIRLAM-6
• Operational attention and support for RCR
• Reference system at 0.2/40, reference settings
  and obs
• RCR products in near real time on HeXNeT
• Not operational status but high level of support
• Full data set on HeXNeT available to all HIRLAM
• Very limited deviations (ice ,SST), available to
  all
• emergency changes

27
(No Transcript)
28

• Procedures for upgrades
• proposed beta release tested 4x4 weeks
• parallel run at FMI lt 2 months
• agreement between FMI and MG
• Core group support for solving problems
• travel funds within the Budget
• up to 2 Reference releases per year
• Monitoring
• Operational forecasters in real time on HeXNeT
• Automatic near real time displays of
  obseravations and fields
• Monthly monitoring reports , observations,
  fields, errors, diagnostics, profiles

29
Météo-France agreement

• 3D-VAR
• Observations, conventional, radar , TOVS
• Surface
• Turbulence
• Orographic drag
• Convection at intermediate scales (-)
• 4D-VAR simplified physics (-)
• Physics - dynamics interface
• Radiation scheme ?
• NH dynamics ??
• Near real time intercomparisons ?
• Diagnostics and verification

30
(No Transcript)
31
(No Transcript)