International CLIVAR Report: CLIVAR SSG14 Development of a CLIVAR Road Map

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CLIVAR perspective to ETCCDINico
CaltabianoInternational CLIVAR Project
OfficeNational Oceanography Centre, Southampton,
UK
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CLIVAR MISSION

• To observe, simulate and predict Earths
  climate system, with a focus on ocean-atmosphere
  interactions, enabling better understanding of
  climate variability, predictability and change to
  the benefit of society and the environment in
  which we live.
• Science lt-gt Applications

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ICPO Who are we?
Howard Cattle, Director
Carlos Ereño VAMOS, AAMP
Valery Detemmerman Funding support
Mike Sparrow Southern Ocean region, VACS (Africa)
(plus WOCE Atlases, SCAR/SCOR, research)
Roberta Boscolo Pacific, Indian, Atlantic
?
Sandy Grapes Admin support, Exchanges
New member Modelling panels plus PAGES
Antonio Nico Caltabiano GSOP, ETCCDI, Data,
Carbon
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WCRP Strategic frameworkCoordinated Observation
and Prediction of the Earth System

• Reiterates WCRP objectives to determine the
  predictability of climate and the effect of human
  activities on climate
• Seeks to facilitate analysis and prediction of
  Earth System variability and change for practical
  applications of direct relevance, benefit and
  value to society

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CLIVAR SSG-14, Buenos Aires, April 2006

• SSG-14 agenda built on outcomes of the CLIVAR
  Conference and the CLIVAR Assessment/SSG-13
  (Baltimore June 2004).
• SSG-13 refocussed CLIVAR onto the cross-cutting
  topics of
• ENSO and other modes of tropical variability
• Monsoons
• Decadal variability and the thermohaline
  circulation
• Anthropogenic climate change (ACC)
• Re-emphasized CLIVARs responsibility for study
  of the role of the oceans in climate under WCRP
• and
• CLIVARs key role in climate modelling and
  prediction
• Sought ways to develop links to applications of
  CLIVAR science

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SSG-14

• Sought development of CLIVAR Roadmap against
  science themes
• ENSO/TV
• Monsoons, Decadal/THC
• ACC
• Role of Oceans in Climate
• Global Modeling Prediction
• Was organized around a series of mini-assessments
  of current status of each themes.
• Background of sponsor/context setting WCRP, IOC,
  WMO, IGBP

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SSG-14 - procedure for mini assessments

• For each theme area
• Theme Lead Overview State of science, current
  status, science directions, needs provided both
  as written papers presentations
• Roundtable contributions How is CLIVAR
  addressing this theme? Panel Working Group
  contributions to crosscut theme
• Theme Assessor Developing the road map, path
  ahead. Synthesis. Gap analysis, redundancies.
  What will we do by 2007, 2010, 2013? Where will
  we be at these milestones?

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CLIVAR Road Map - key timescales/issues

• IPCC AR5, (Assume Report by 2013 with inputs by
  2011)
• CLIVAR sunset date of 2013 - what will be the
  legacy of CLIVAR
• What will follow CLIVAR (and sunsets of other
  WCRP Projects)

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CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsAnthropogenic
climate change

• Develop Earth System Models through WGCM with
  IGBP for input to AR5 coordination of AR5 runs
• Understand feedbacks introduced by new components
  and reduce uncertainties in their representation
• Develop Climate Change Detection and Monitoring
  Studies
• Key effort on ocean indices inputs to AR5
• Synthesis of Climate Change Detection and
  Monitoring indices as part of CLIVAR legacy

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CLIVAR Road MapAnthropogenic Climate Change
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Ocean observations/CLIVAR legacy (1)

• Continue close cooperation with OOPC others
  through CLIVAR Basin Panels and CLIVAR Global
  Synthesis Observation Panel to develop
  sustained ocean observing system
• Complete validate multiple global reanalyses in
  time for IPCC AR5 assess ocean component of
  coupled reanalyses
• Stimulate international activity to evaluate the
  current state development vector of the global
  ocean observing system (revisit OceanObs99 in
  2008 timeframe?)
• Aim by the end of CLIVAR to have
• Developed a global description of subsurface
  ocean variability
• Have in place a truly global ocean observation
  system

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Ocean observations/CLIVAR legacy (2)

• Subgroup of SSG to work on 2013 vision/legacy
  develop data management requirements
• Choose a few foci crafted around the oceans role
  in climate e.g.
• Exchange (with atmosphere) including joint
  global flux project (with GEWEX) focused around
  water cycle
• Storage (heat/salt/CO2)
• Transports
• and utilise new observing capabilities to develop
  key datasets for CLIVAR legacy
• Develop common climate indices for
  models/observations as component
• Develop concept of post-CLIVAR activity (with
  GEWEX/IGBP). Possible theme of data synthesis
  decade post-CLIVAR

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CLIVAR Road MapOceans Climate/CLIVAR legacy
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Performance metrics for CLIVAR

• New resources enabled by leveraging off of CLIVAR
  efforts, (e.g. 15M GEF funding of LPB, ESF
  MedCLIVAR, Climate Process Teams, AR4 analyses)
• ? Improvements in
• 1. the spectral character (i.e. spectral power,
  frequency) and
• 2. predictability of ISO, seasonal, interannual,
  and decadal variability in coupled models
• Number of global ocean observation deployments
• and
• transition of process study and research
  observations to operational status (e.g.TAO)
• Reduction of uncertainty in climate models, bias
  reduction, and the number of new
  parameterizations incorporated into operational
  models (e.g. CPT on marine stratus, VOCALS)
• Metric tracking capacity building within and
  incorporation of developing nations into CLIVAR
  activities (e.g. efforts within ETCCDI, VAMOS,
  VACS and AAMP)
• ? Global and regional data products enabled by
  CLIVAR (e.g., global ocean data renalyses,
  African Climate Atlas)

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Few questions
Extremes and ACC are two of WCRPs cross-cutting
Topics. So, What/Where does the Expert Team want
to see WCRP involved? What does WCRP can do to
help?
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