Policy Case Studies

1
NERAM V Strategic Policy Directions for Air
Quality Risk Management October 16-18, 2006

• Policy Case Studies
• for North America

Bart Croes Chief, Research Division California
Air Resources Board
2
Case Studies
3
Ambient Air Quality Standards

• Lead, SO2, NO2 and CO standards generally met
• PM, ozone and air toxics (in that order) are
  currently the main health drivers for control
  programs
• Incorporating exposure and toxicity
  considerations into PM and air toxic control
  programs

4
Example of Exposure Weighting
Selected Fraction Estimated Rank
Order PM2.5 of PM2.5 Intake
Fraction of Sources Sources Total
Multipliers by Exposure Road dust
21 2 4 Waste burning 15
5 6 Home wood burning 13 500
1 Wildfires 11 12 5 Windblown
dust 8 1 7 Diesel vehicles
1.2 300 2 Passenger cars 1.2
300 3 Intake Fraction total mass
inhaled / total mass emitted x 106
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Scientific Input to Policy

• U.S. National Academy of Sciences reports
• NARSTO assessments
• Major air quality field and modeling studies in
  many airsheds
• Over 50 M per year in research funding
• Scientific advisors

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Significant PM2.5 Variation
Source NARSTO PM Assessment
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Air Quality Management Instruments

• Performance-based standards with demonstrated
  feasibility
• Aftertreatment effective but source turnover can
  be slow
• Retrofits and repowering also beneficial
• Fuel improvements provide immediate benefits
• Market-based programs
• SO2 and NOX emission trading for large sources
• Congestion pricing, feebates and others have not
  been tried
• Limited use of land use and transport management
• Other principles
• Target multiple pollutants from the same sources
• Public workshops and stakeholder meetings
• Verify the emission inventory
• Enforce the controls

8
Technology-based Regulations

• Mobile Sources (99 reduction)
• Aftertreatment (3-way catalysts, diesel traps)
• Technology (closed loop systems, OBD)
• Cleaner fuels (sulfur, aromatic and olefin
  removal)
• Stationary Sources (90 reduction)
• Low-NOX burners
• Selective catalytic reduction
• Cleaner fuels (CNG)
• Area Sources (gt75 reduction)
• Vapor recovery
• Low-VOC coatings and solvents

9
Success Heavy-duty Diesel Vehicle PM Reduction

• On-road evidence
• 2007 trap technology, 90 reduction

Source Harley, Caldecott Tunnel results
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Challenge Heavy-duty Diesel Vehicle NOX reduction

• On-road emissions greater than emission standards
• NOX versus fuel economy trade-off
• 2010 standards require 90 reduction
• Urea-based selective catalytic reduction

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Inspection/Maintenance Programs

• California (Singer and Wenzel, EST, 2003)
• CO -34
• HC -26
• NOX -14
• Mexico City (Schifter et al., EST, 2003)
• CO -4
• HC 9
• NOX 8

12
Los Angeles and Mexico City (MCMA) Ozone and PM10
Trends
Source Molina et al., JAWMA, 2004
13
Environmental Justice

• Local hot spots exist, especially near roadways
• Microscale CO levels have declined at about the
  same rate as regional levels (Eisenger et al.,
  JAWMA, 2002)
• California has recommended buffer zones for land
  use guidance www.arb.ca.gov/ch/landuse.htm
• Targeted diesel enforcement, retrofit and
  replacement programs in California
• Need screening tools for air quality monitoring

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Costs of California Control Measures
Cost of regulations, 1986-2004 (dollars per pound
of ozone precursor emissions)
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Total Costs

• United States
• 88 B annual control costs
• 4 health benefits for every 1 spent on control
• Air pollution control industry generates 27 B
  each year and employs 178,000
• California
• 10 B annual control costs
• 3 health benefits for every 1 spent on control
• Air pollution control industry generates 6.2 B
  each year and employs 32,000

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Unintended Consequences

• Mexico City
• Lead reduction (and increase in gasoline
  aromatics) may have increased ozone
• No Driving Day program may have increased
  pollution
• United States
• MTBE groundwater contamination
• Ethanol permeation and commingling increased VOC
• Los Angeles
• SOX reductions led to nitrate increases
• Unanticipated PAN reductions (60 ppb to 3-5 ppb)
• Weekend ozone effect less improvement on
  weekends
• Diesel Retrofits
• More NO2 and nitro-PAH? What about ash disposal?

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Major Challenges
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Indoor air quality unregulated in North America

• A typical pollutant release indoors is 1000
  times as effective in causing human exposures as
  the same release to urban outdoor air - Kirk
  Smith, UC Berkeley
• Indoor sources of PM cooking, smoking,
  vacuuming, wood-burning, reactions of terpenes
  and ozone
• Indoor sources of VOC building materials,
  office equipment, consumer products
• Indoor source reduction or removal is the most
  effective strategy
• California 45 billion annual health impact
• No agencies have comprehensive regulatory
  authority

Based on indoor sources, does not include PM.
19
Particle number emissions increasing for in-use
gasoline and diesel vehicles
PM emission factors for 1997 and 2004 from
Caldecott Tunnel in San Francisco PM2.5 mass
emissions are decreasing, but Particle number
emission rates have increased by a factor of 5.4
for gasoline vehicles and by 1.3 for diesel
vehicles
Geller et al., EST (2005)
20
Background ozone levels increasing
Background ozone levels in the Northern
Hemisphere (Vingarzan et al., 2004)

• Observed trends in background ozone levels in
  California (Jaffe et al., 2003)

21
Climate change increases the difficulty of
meeting ozone targets
Base-case episode features September 9,
1993 Elevated temperature inversion Warm nights,
hot days Sensitivity study 1. Increase
temperature by 2oC (3.6oF), constant RH 2. Does
not account for future controls, background air
quality, or the effect of temperature on
emissions. Results 30 ppb (10) increase in
peak ozone Source Kleeman et al., 2005
30 ppb
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And PM2.5 targets
Base-case episode features September 25,
1996 Elevated temperature inversion Cool nights,
warm days Sensitivity study 1. Increase
background ozone to 60 ppb 2. Increase
temperature by 2oC (3.6oF), constant RH 3. Does
not account for future controls or the effect of
temperature on emissions. Results 34 µg/m3
(20) increase in daily peak PM2.5 Source
Kleeman et al., 2005
34 µg/m3
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North America is a major emitter of greenhouse
gases
2000 Emissions Per Capita (Mt CO2)
Emissions

• USA..5,661...19
• China2,795.... 2
• Russia..1,437...10
• Japan1,186.9
• India..1,073.1
• Germany..787..10
• UK.569.9
• Canada....437..13
• California....430......12
• Italy...429.....7
• South Korea....428.....9
• Mexico....425........4

Sources Oak Ridge National Lab The Tellus
Institute
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Governors Executive Order

• Greenhouse gas reduction targets
• By 2010, reduce to 2000 levels
• By 2020, reduce to 1990 levels
• By 2050, reduce to 80 below 1990 levels

Equals about 60 million tons emission
reduction, 11 below business as usual Equals
about 174 million tons emission reduction, 30
below BAU
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ARB GHG Program Timeline

• 1/1/07 ARB maintains statewide inventory
• 6/30/07 List of discrete early actions
• 1/1/08 Mandatory reporting of emissions
  Adopt 1990 baseline/2020 target
• 1/1/09 Scoping plan of reduction strategies
• 1/1/10 Regulations to implement early
  action items
• 1/1/11 Regulations to implement scoping
  plan

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(No Transcript)
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California Air Pollution History

• 1943 First recognized episodes of smog.
  Visibility is three blocks reports of burning
  eyes, respiratory discomfort, nausea, and
  vomiting.
• 1945 The City of Los Angeles establishes Bureau
  of Smoke Control in Health Department.
• 1947 Governor Earl Warren signs Air Pollution
  Control Act, authorizing Air Pollution Control
  Districts in every county.
• 1959 Legislation requires Department of Public
  Health to establish air quality standards and
  necessary controls for motor vehicles.
• 1966 State adopts auto emission standards for
  hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. Highway Patrol
  begins random roadside inspections of vehicle
  smog control devices.
• 1969 Air Resources Board created with authority
  to set air quality standards, control motor
  vehicles, and conduct health and air quality
  research. First state Ambient Air Quality
  Standards (AAQS) for TSP, O3, SO2, NO2 and CO.
• 1976 Catalytic converters and unleaded
  gasoline.
• 1983 Inhalable Particle AAQS - PM10.
• 1986 3-way catalyst and closed loop controls.
• 1990 Cleaner Burning Fuels Low- Zero
  Emission Vehicles.
• 1999 Consumer products rules cut VOCs from
  2,500 common household products.
• 2002 AAQS for PM2.5 revised AAQS for PM10
• 2004 Adopt greenhouse gas regulation for cars
  and light trucks beginning in 2009 MY.

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U.S. Clean Air Acts

• 1963 air quality criteria
• 1965 emission standards for motor vehicles
• 1967 air quality standards
• 1967 federal preemption of motor vehicles
  standards, except California
• 1970 Clean Air Act (Muskie)
• Enforceable air quality standards
• State implementation plans (SIPs)
• Motor vehicle emission standards
• Air toxics program
• Citizen right to sue

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Regulatory Structure

• U.S. EPA
• Sets National Ambient Air Quality Standards
• Reviews, approves, enforces State Implementation
  Plans (SIPs)
• California Air Resources Board
• Regulates mobile sources (except ships, aircraft,
  trains)
• Sets consumer products emission limits
• Establishes air toxics risk reduction
• Bureau of Automotive Repair
• Runs smog check
• Air quality management districts
• Control stationary point sources
• Control stationary area sources