Paleoclimate Reconstructions

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Paleoclimate Reconstructions

• Fossils
• Shells in ocean sediments
• Oxygen isotopes in ice cores
• Tree rings (dendrochronology)
• Pollen trapped in ice, sediments
• Historical documents
• Borehole temperatures
• Ice cores

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A comparison of 1,000-year temperature
reconstructions. The red line is the temperature
history of the Northern Hemisphere as developed
by Mann and colleagues, a.k.a. the Hockey
Stick. The blue line represents the Northern
Hemispheric temperature history as constructed by
Espers research team (source Esper et al.,
2002).
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ELLIPTICITY
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PRECESSION OF THE EQUINOXES
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MILANKOVITCH CYCLE COMPONENTS
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MILANKOVITCH CYCLES
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POTENTIAL METHANE CHANGES
0.25
3600
IPCC Projected Methane Levels
0.20
3200
0.15
2800
Atmospheric Methane
Concentration (ppb)
Projected Temperature Rise
from Methane (C)
0.10
2400
Methane Levels
Suggested by
0.05
2000
Dlugokencky et al.
0.00
1600
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
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WARMING BY LATITUDE (1970-2002)
Predicted
Observed
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WARMING BY SEASON 19702002
Observed
Predicted
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TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BY HEMISPHERE 19002002
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GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION 1900-2002
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GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SOLAR RADIATION
19702002
19001969
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COMPARISON OF SURFACE AND SATELLITE TEMPERATURES
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.8
.6
.4
Temperature Anomaly (C)
.2
0
-.2
-.4
-.6
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
Year
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DJF Temperature Change from 1880-1889 mean by
2040-2049 predicted by the Max-Plank Institute
model
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Cold Season Temperature Trends (1946-1995)
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Warm Season Temperature Trends (1946-1995)