PLANNING FOR DROUGHT Not if, but When

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PLANNING FOR DROUGHTNot if, but When

• Presented by
• Alison Teetor
• Natural Resource Planner
• Clarke County, Virginia

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Introduction/Overview

• Objective
• Discuss Shenandoah Valley approach to Regional
  Coordinated Drought Management
• Why do we care?
• How did we get started?
• Whats currently happening?
• Future goals

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Why do we Care

• Virginia historically has been water rich
• Take resource for granted
• BUT more more people more demand on
  resource
• Recent droughts a warning to PREPARE!

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Shenandoah River Basin
North Fork 20 flow but 63 of the
population South Fork 80 flow 37 of the
population
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How region got started thinking about preparing
for drought 1991 - 2004

• Surface Water Management Area designation
• permit withdrawal levels based on low flows
• 3 criteria
•  A stream has substantial instream values
•  Low flow condition could threaten values
• Current or potential offstream uses likely to
  
• exacerbate natural low flow conditions

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MINIMUM INSTREAM FLOW (MIF) STUDIES

• Began MIF study because couldnt meet criteria 2
• Goal was to establish min instream levels
  mainly aquatic thresholds where would fish
  populations be impacted
• Contracted w/ USGS/ VA Tech North Fork

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1999-2002

• Severe drought
• The regions water supply planning shows growth
  outstripping supply by 2025 for the North
  Fork.
• Regional Water Relationships Forum in 1999
• Formation of Regional Water Resource Policy
  Committee
• Goal Develop a long term water supply plan for
  region
• Recognize value of coordinated drought
  management (Frederick Co. /City of Winchester)

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2003 presentLow flow/Drought Response Plan

• NF Study Completed/Start SF Study
• USGS suggests development of a low flow/drought
  response plan that would incorporate data
  developed by USGS/VA Tech MIF study
• Established subcommittee

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Subcommittee work

• Looked at Interstate Commission on the Potomac
  River Basin (ICPRB) drought management for DC
  metro area
• Modified VA Drought Assessment Plan unique to
  Shenandoah Valley
• -   incorporate data science to back up policy

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DRAFT PLAN

• Primary Goals Local cooperation, coordinated
  drought response, and public education within the
  basin.
• Drought Indicators
• Drought Stages
• What happens when stages are
• declared

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Drought Indicators

• 3 Main Indicators
• precipitation
• stream flow
• ground water levels
• Other
• Standardized Precipitation Index
• Palmer Drought Severity Index
• Crop Moisture Index
• NOAA monthly and seasonal precipitation
  outlook

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Drought Stage Levels Ground Water (2 wells)

• Above the 25th percentile NORMAL
• Between the 10th and 25th percentiles WATCH
• Between the 5th and 10th percentile WARNING
• Below the 5th percentile EMERGENCY

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Drought Stage LevelsSurface Water (14 gages)
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Drought Stage LevelsPrecipitation
Precipitation deficits will be monitored by
comparing current precipitation amounts with
historical precipitation values as a percent of
normal long-term average values.
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Flow Levels 6/22/06
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Drought Stage Declaration2 indicators exceed
stage level

• Watch
• - Encourage voluntary water conservation
• Warning
• - goal of reducing total water usage by 5-10
• - water use restrictions consistent with local
  water supply conditions
• Emergency
• - mandatory water conservation requirements

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Web Site DevelopmentDrought Awareness

• http//va.water.usgs.gov/drought/index.htm

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Pennsylvania Composite Indicator
Map (Precipitation Based on 90-Day Departure)
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Pennsylvania Drought Condition Monitoring
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Future Steps

• Get local government and utility approval for
  draft plan
• Incorporate data from other ongoing studies
  USGS groundwater (SF Shenandoah MIF
• Develop web site

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QUESTIONS?

• Contact information
• Alison Teetor
• Natural Resource Planner
• 102 N. Church St.
• Berryville, VA 22611
• [phone]
• ateetor_at_clarkecounty.gov