Title: Competitiveness,%20FDI,%20trade%20and%20innovation:%20A%20global%20perspective
1Competitiveness, FDI, trade and innovation A
global perspective
- Sanjaya Lall
- Professor of Development Economics
- University of Oxford
- sanjaya.lall_at_economics.ox.ac.uk
2International competitiveness has become an
essential precondition for growth. The context
for competitiveness is changing significantly,
rapidly and irrevocably.The change is driven
by technical progress, but its impact is very
uneven. It is uneven across activities,
regions, countries and particular groups within
countries. This is driving a wedge between the
technological haves and have-nots in the
developing world and it needs to be countered.
3- I illustrate this for manufacturing industry with
data for production, exports and technological
performance for 1980-2000 - Technological performance is shown by dividing
production and exports into categories according
to the sophistication of technology a simple
but useful method - I also consider some structural drivers of
competitive performance skills, FDI, domestic
technological effort, licensing and ICT
infrastructure. - This is for benchmarking reasons it is NOT
meant to reduce the importance of other factors
like macro or trade policy, governance, business
costs and so on.
4Let me start with some basic scene setting
5Globalization is driven by rapid and pervasive
technical change
The death of distance opens opportunities new
markets and narrower forms of specialization in
fragmented production global value chains
Innovation changes structure of industrial and
export activity, shifting the dynamics of
different activities the key to success is good
positioning to exploit these changes
The pace and spread of innovation make it
imperative to constantly access new technologies,
but raises minimum entry levels in capabilities,
institutions and infrastructure
6Recent growth of hi-tech other manufacturing
production in 1980-98 (US National Science Board)
7Technical change alters the organisation of
production and trade
Harnessing innovation and globalization needs
more than opening up to trade or FDI it needs
building capabilities to use new technologies
efficiently and moving up the technology scale
Thus globalization offers new markets and mobile
resources but competing for these calls for more
than primary resources or cheap labour it
requires the ability to harness innovation
- Globalization raises the role of MNCs in
innovation, technology transfer, production and
particularly exports. Around 2/3 of world trade
is handled by MNCs, about 1/3 is within companies
8Capability building in developing countries is
not innovating at the frontier
- It is building the specialized skills, technical
knowledge, organizational structures and
inter-firm linkages to seek, absorb, adapt and
improve technologies. - This requires strengthening the institutional
base the national innovation system - The interacting complex of technology (MSTQ, RD,
technical services, extension), education,
training and other institutions that help
enterprises to become technologically capable - The NIS is as important (or even more so) for
less industrialized as it is for more advanced
economies they find it harder to cope with new
technologies and to tap dynamic global value
chains
9Now consider global patterns of export
competitiveness and dynamism
10Evolution of MVA shares by development
11Technological structures a simple categorisation
- Primary products
- Manufactured products
- RB (Resource based) e.g. food, wood forestry
products, processed minerals, petroleum products - LT (Low technology) e.g. textiles, clothing,
footwear, toys, sports goods, simple metal
products - MT (Medium technology) e.g. automotive products,
TVs, machinery, chemicals, steel - HT (High technology) Advanced ICT and
electricals, pharmaceuticals, aerospace,
precision instruments
12Growth rates of MVA by technology in
industrialized and developing countries
13Developing countries industrial structure still
lags ICs but is catching up rapidly
14Technology structure of MVA in developing regions
(1980-2000)
15Performance in developing world is skewed
regional shares of global MVA, 1980-2000 ()
16LAC was largest regional loser of MVA shares,
followed by SSA
17Now consider export competitiveness
18Manufactures drive trade values of world
exports, 1985-2000 (current billion)
19Shares of world manufactured exports by
technology note when RB, MT and LT shares peak
(1976 to 2000, )
Resource based
High Technology
Medium Technology
Low Technology
20Growth rates of manufactured exports by
technology
21Role of HT is more evident in the 50 fastest
growing world exports over 1990-2000 ( shares)
22How are developing countries doing in this
dynamic scene?Surprisingly well
23Growth rates of industrialized and developing
countries over the past two decades ( p.a.)
24Developing worlds market shares by technology
25And the values of its exports HT now far exceeds
LT and RB (current billion)
26But developing world export performance is also
highly concentrated (world market shares)
27Shares of developing world exports by technology
2000
1985
2810 countries (of which, 8 from E Asia) account
for over 75 of developing world manufactured
exports ( m.)
29Industrial performance is clearly diverging, but
why?
- Insufficient liberalization, macro instability
and poor governance account for part - But they dont account for it completely the
data dont suggest that liberalization by itself
leads to competitive success - Export growth and upgrading require other
factors careful strategy to build domestic
capabilities by creating appropriate skills,
raising technological effort, and tapping into
global production systems via FDI
30Some simple indicators of these structural
drivers of industrial competitiveness
31RD financed by productive enterprises ( per
capita)
32RD financed by productive enterprises at the
national level ( of GDP, 1997-2000)
33Skills tertiary technical enrolments (per 1000
people)
34National tertiary technical enrolments (1985-98,
population)
35Annual inward FDI (US per capita)
36Developing world FDI distribution
10 COUNTRIES GET 80 OF FDI IN THE DEVELOPING
WORLD AND THEIR SHARE IS RISING OVER TIME LARGE
PART OF RECENT FDI, PARTICULARLY IN LAC, IS NOT
IN MANUFACTURING OR EXPORT-ORIENTED ACTIVITIES
THE MAJOR EXCEPTION IS MEXICO
37Reliance on FDI varies greatly in EA (FDI of
gross domestic investment)
38Technology licence payments abroad (US per
capita)
39Conclusions East Asian lessons
- There are many ways to build export
competitiveness - MNCs play a critical role in all strategies but
countries access their technologies, skills and
marketing prowess in different ways - Korea and Taiwan used arms length strategies to
tap FDI, building domestic skills, innovation and
institutions by coherent industrial and
technology strategies. Singapore used FDI
targeting with skill infrastructure
development to plug into global production and
upgrade rapidly. These have the best technology
systems - New Asian Tigers had weak capabilities, shallow
technology base, inadequate skill creation
systems. They are upgrading rapidly but many gaps
remain - All strategies have worked well so far, but their
sustainability remains to be seen
40- Autonomous strategies are less feasible, more
risky - Acceleration of technical change
- Spread of global production networks
- Problems in managing selective industrial
strategies - New international rules of the game
- FDI dependent countries are becoming less passive
as policies grow more standardized and
governments realize need to target - Importance of building strong technology systems
is increasingly accepted as need to move up
technology ladder and stay ahead of competition
mounts (threat of China galvanizing EA and other
regions) - Least developed countries unduly neglect
technology policy and institutions even low
technology and resource based industrialization
needs higher capabilities and stronger technology
bases