Energy Efficiency in the EU15: Achievements and Prospects

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Energy Efficiency in the EU15 Achievements and
Prospects
Conference on the Future of Energy in Enlarged
Europe Perspectives for RD Co-operation A
contribution within the context of the Weimar
Triangle Warsaw, 7- 8th October 2004

• Wolfgang Eichhammer
• Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation
  Research
• www.isi.fraunhofer.de
• Karlsruhe, Germany

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Energy Efficiency - The sextuple dividend
The double dividend

• Reduction of environmental burden (CO2, local
  pollution)
• Effects on employment/competitiveness
• Supply security protection to oil/gas price
  shocks
• Economy protection to oil/pas price
  intoxication (Yoyo in energy prices high energy
  prices in slowly recovering economy)
• Savings on oil stocks (90 days provision)
• Energy Efficiency Trigger for Innovation

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Energy Efficiency

• Where we are and our policies

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Energy efficiency is improving until 1998
almost 10 since 1990 main improvement in
industry with 17 against, 6 in transport and 5
in households slow-down since 1998
ODEX Odyssee Bottom-up Index for Energy
Efficiency "Dow Jones for Energy Efficiency"
Source Odyssee Database www.odyssee-indicators.or
g
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Change in Efficiency Standards of New Dwellings
Specific Consumption Index
Some of our most performant national policies
Source Odyssee Database www.odyssee-indicators.or
g
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Consumption for heating in the EU per dwelling ,
stable on average , but decrease per m2 regular
reduction for new dwellings because of
re-enforcement in standards

• Recent revisions in 8 countries
• Italy (94), Germany (95 02), Denmark(95)
• Netherlands (95, 98 00), Ireland (97), Austria
  France (01), Greece (95 01)
• Planned reinforcement in 3 countries
• Finland (03), UK , France and Denmark (05)
• On average , 4 revisions since 1973 in most
  countries with an energy saving of 60
• for dwellings built now compared to 1973
• But limited impact on average unit
• consumption in 1999, dwellings built since
  1990 only represent 8 of total heating
  consumption

larger dwellings offset half of the reduction
in consumption per m2
Source Odyssee Database www.odyssee-indicators.or
g
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Limits to policy Impact of hypothetical building
regulation every 6 years on stock (lifestyle !)
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Policy Impact ! Not autonomous
Success of a consistent and comprehensive policy,
of an innovative and proactive industry, as well
as of receptive consumers
Source MURE database (www.mure2.com)
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Taking into account lifestyle changes (larger
refrigerators) this was still the equivalent of
half the EU wind industry and several large
nuclear plants. In the next 15 years this can be
doubled !
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Household electricity consumption by type of
appliances successful energy policies versus
social trends
The race between equipment levels and policy
Labelling Policies
In particular ICT
Source Odyssee Database 2002
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Message 1 Successful but.

• We were quite successful in improving energy
  efficiency in the fields where we had coherent
  policies.
• However, behaviour/rebound effects will destroy
  in many occasions our efforts
• Two strategies either be even more stronger in
  the technology field or tackle behaviour

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Message from a recent evaluation of energy
efficiency measures in the residential sector
(EU15)
What we will achieve in the present decade
500-700 PJ
What we have achieved in the past decade 500-600
PJ
What we can achieve in an economic manner 1500
PJ
What we have to achieve according to the proposed
EU Energy Service Directive 1400 PJ
We need to double our efforts in energy
efficiency in the present and in particular the
future decades not taking in account behaviour
and living standard !
Source MURE www.mure2.com
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Message 2 "Lead policy" measure needed

• We need a "lead policy" measure for the field of
  energy efficiency that can provide us with
  targets for the next decades similar to the RES-E
  Directive for renewables
• The proposed EU Directive for Energy Service (1
  improvement per year beyond autonomous
  improvement) has the potential for such a "Lead
  policy" measure and needs a strong political
  support in all EU member states.

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Armory Lovins Bathroom Plug (today)
How we use energy today
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Armory Lovins bathroom plug 2080
Product/Material Strategies Nanotechnologies Biot
echnologies .. 2080
Current efficiency level
No-regret potentials 2020
Energy Efficiency RD 2040
The Future
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Message 3 Coherent agenda needed

• We need a coherent RD agenda with long-term
  targets and intermediate milestones beyond FP6
  bundling more strongly advances in other fields
  such as nanotechnologies, biotechnologies,
  material sciences and efficiency into the
  improvement of energy efficiency.
• This agenda needs to be determined together with
  the private sector (transport sector, industrial
  sector, products for the residential sector,
  supply industries)
• We need more energy efficiency technology
  platforms beyond the steel technology platform
  proposed currently, based on our problems e.g
  "how to reduce consumption levels in existing
  buildings to the level of new buildings without
  50 cm of insulation", "how to reduce stand-by
  consumption to close to zero", "how to reduce the
  weight of our cars to the half" (benefit also to
  hydrogen, electric cars, biofuel cars,)
• We need to communicate the results of this agenda
  more regularly and more officially to the public
  renewables and hydrogen have by far a better
  PR-Strategy than energy efficiency !
• We need to consider behavioural aspects in
  addition to technology aspects

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White Book for Energy Efficiency RD-The 2000
Watt SocietyIf you want to build a ship,don t
drum up the men to gather wood,divide the work
and give orders.Instead, teach them to yearn
for the vast and endless sea.Antoine de Saint
Exupéry
Source White Book for Energy Efficiency RD CEPE
(Switzerland) http//www.cepe.ethz.ch/publications
/list.htm4
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Long-term energy saving potentials industrial
sector Distance of current energy consumption
to minimum energy consumption
The task is difficult
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QSL-Process for the smelting of lead
Classical lead shaft furnace
QSL process
but not impossible
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Lead Smelting (QSL-Process in Germany)

• The essential energetical progress of the new
  process consisted in
• the unification of two previously separate
  process steps in one reaction vessel, of which
  one is exothermal (lead roasting), the other
  endothermal (lead reduction).
• in the reduction of recirculated raw materials
  in the sinter step
• In the demonstration phase 40 energy savings
  were achieved, in the industrial application over
  25 . Investment costs were lowered by about 20 .

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Applications of nanotechnology for the energy
sector
Source ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)
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Supercapacitors to avoid oversizing of car engines
Source White Book for Energy Efficiency RD CEPE
(Switzerland)
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Looking beyond present savings More economic
flat screensrethinking our products in the light
of energy efficiency right from the RD stage
Source Science et Vie 2004
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Application of biotechnological processes to
energy supply and demand

• Production of energy sources from various raw
  materials and sources Established processes use
  biomass in order to generate hydrogen, ethanol,
  methanol, and acetone with butanol and ethanol
  (ABE). Innovative process optimization focus on
  the use of cheaper carbon sources and aim on the
  improvement of strains and strain metabolism by
  genetic engineering. A third area for innovation
  is the improved efficiency of product recovery.
• Biogas and biomass for energy generation employ
  biotechnological techniques as well, however at
  present there are little efforts for high-tech
  improvement.
• Application of photosynthesis for energy
  generation. At present this process is pure basic
  research. According to experts industrial
  applications are expected to have a long term
  perspective for commercialization.
• Bioleaching extraction of specific metals from
  their ores through the use of bacteria (relevant
  for low-concentration ores, e.g. for copper.

Source ESTIR Project (Fraunhofer ISI)
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The long-term improvement of energy efficiency
has many legs...

• Direct efficiency improvement in the chain from
  energy supply to use
• Process substitution
• Lowering the demand for useful energy
• Recycling of energy-intensive materials
• Reduce the specific material consumption
  (Dematerialisation)
• Product recycling and lifetime extension/
  intensification of product use
• Use of biogenic raw materials

Energy
Material
See also Dematerialisation less clear than it
seems www.vhknet.com/download/dematerialisation.pd
f
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Informal Environment Council - Dutch EU
presidency (16-18 July 2004)

• Objective emphasise on strategic chances for
  European industry Eco-efficiency as main driver
  for creating a highly innovative European
  industry. In a Porter perspective, Europe has a
  unique possibility to create jobs and strong
  (new) industries for the future by emphasising
  eco-efficiency as a key drive.
• Scoping Use eco-efficiency as a key motor of
  European competitiveness
• Concrete goal
• Development of eco-efficient systems - with the
  aim of building global leadership in new
  industrial markets (including the service
  economy). Broader than just environmental
  technologies
• More focus on industry (putting eco-efficiency
  into action) and high level policy makers
  (supportive instruments)
• Chose investments in eco-efficient systems that
  are (or can become) highly competitive in the
  global market

How to make eco-efficiency innovations happen in
practice
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Message 4 Innovation supporting policy context

• Innovations for energy efficiency can only grow
  in a steady policy environment providing strong
  incentives and clear messages (unless the oil
  exporting countries and oil price speculation are
  doing the job for us). High energy prices (but
  lower energy cost for the consumer at the end!)
  are unfortunately part of such an innovation
  supporting context.

See also Clean, Clever and Competitive Presidenc
y conclusions Informal Environment Council 16-18
July 2004 www2.vrom.nl/docs/internationaal/IEC_Con
clusions.pdf
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Potential for energy efficiency improvement in
New EU Members (1)
Source www.ceec-indicators.org
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Potential for energy efficiency improvement in
New EU Members (2)
Source www.ceec-indicators.org
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Message 5 Seize opportunities

• The new EU Member States have through the renewal
  of their production tools as well as the car and
  building stocks the chance to take energy
  efficiency improvement very seriously into
  account. Once this moment is over, the chance
  will only come back 30-100 years later

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Energy Efficiency RD Fields for Co-operation in
the Weimar Triangle and beyond

• Setting a common and comprehensive European
  agenda for energy efficiency based on a White
  Book for Energy Efficiency RD aiming at a 1
  improvement for energy efficiency per year for at
  least half of this century. This strategy should
  include and bundle in particular advances for
  energy efficiency in the fields of
  nanotechnologies, biotechnologies and material
  sciences.
• Supporting "Lead Policies" such as the proposed
  Energy Service Directive that pave the way for
  short as well as long-term energy efficiency
  improvements.
• Creating, in co-operation with industrial
  actors, innovation clusters /centres for
  excellence / technology platforms in the field of
  energy efficiency
• Investigating behavioural aspects of efficient
  use of energy
• Extending monitoring and evaluation tools for
  energy efficiency such as ODYSSEE
  (www.odyssee-indicators.org) and MURE
  (www.mure2.com) to New Member States (partially
  ongoing)