Preparing Scientists and Engineers for the 21st Century

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www.csee.wvu.edu/jalali
October 23, 2002
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Overview

• Introduction
• Where we are?
• Where we go?
• What is the fourth wave?
• What is education for the fourth wave?
• Conclusions

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PART 1 Introduction?

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SCIENCE FICTION
Imagination and fantasy often point the way to
real-world developments. Many inventions, such
as airplanes, radio, robots, the laser, and
television, were first described in science
fiction.
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1st Wave Agricultural Age (29,500 Years) Goal
Produce Food
2nd wave Industrial Age (500 Years) Goal
Produce Material
3rd wave Information Age ( 25 Years) Goal
Produce Information
4th wave ? Age ( 20 Years ahead!)
What is the 4th wave of change?
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Alvin Toffler and the Third Wave

• He has written about society, culture, the media,
  organizations, science, computers, politics, and
  economics.
• Third wave, based not on muscle but on mind. It
  is what we variously call the information or the
  knowledge age.

ARE THESE CATEGORIES STILL RELEVANT?
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Why Subject is Important

• During periods of great change (like now), we
  must know about the future.
• We must be able to prepare for whats ahead.
• We should know the function of each age.
• We should know the role of breakthrough
  technologies in that process.

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Simple workers will be reduced to 2 in the USA
by year 2030
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17
2
1960
1995
2030
Today, only 17 of the workfource is directly
involved in the material production of physical
goods
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What is the Fourth Wave?
Space Age

• Education for the Fourth Wave

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What is the Fourth Wave?
Genetic Engineering Age

• Education for the Fourth Wave

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• Education for the Fourth Wave

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What is the Fourth Wave?
Nanotechnology Age

• Education for the Fourth Wave

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PART 2 Where we are?

Home Management
Internet Refrigerator
Internet Smell Detector
Internet Car
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EDUCATION
WORKING FOR PEACE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
SCIENCES
CULTURE
COMMUNICATION
UNESCOS unique contribution mobilizing the
major intellectual sectors to prevent and solve
problems, through coordinated action.
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World Population from -1600 to 2000

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World Population 1000-2000
6.1
1.5
1
0.72
Reduction of natural resources
0.5
0.42
0.33
Population (in billion)
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World Population 1900-2000
50 of the W. P. are under 25 years old.
6.1
The W. P. will be increased one billion each 12
years till the year 2050.
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3
2
The land used for farming has been reduced by
50 from 50 years ago.
1.6
Population (in billion)
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Inventions from 1900-1980
lamp radio 1906 laser 1960 plastic 1909 ind
ustrial robot 1961 refrigerator 1913 microscope
1970 lamp television 1923 video
recorder 1971 radar 1940 scanner 1972 atomi
c bomb 1945 GPS 1973 transistor 1947 geneti
c engineering 1974 computer 1948 high speed
train 1978 optic fiber 1955 walk-man 1979
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COMPUTERS WILL BE MORE HUMAN
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SOFTWARE WILL GET SMARTER
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WORLD WIDE WEB
THE WEB WILL BE SMART
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Life Sciences - Re-Engineering of Life Itself

• Tele-diagnostics Technologies
• Implantable Integrated Biodevices
• Recombinant DNA Genopharmacology
• Bio-engineered Organisms, Tissue Systems, Organs

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PART 2 Where we go?

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Primary Elements of The Emergent Operational
Ecology

• Infotech
• Biotech
• Nanotech

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THE THREE MOST IMPORTANT TECHNOLOGICAL ELEMENTS
IN CHANGING THE WORLD
High Speed CPUs
Large Capacity Memories
High Speed Media
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Transistor Count Versus Year for Microprocessors
1000
1000
200
200
Production of Transistors are 5000 billion for
a day!
Million
High Speed CPUs
9.5
7.5
5.5
3.1
1.2
0.029
Year
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THE FOUR CRUCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL COMPONENTS IN
CHANGING THE WORLD
High Speed CPUs
Large Capacity Memories
High Speed Media
High Speed Media
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Transistor Count Versus Year for Microprocessors
1000
1000
200
200
Production of Transistors are 5000 billion for
a day!
Million
High Speed CPUs
9.5
7.5
5.5
3.1
1.2
0.029
Year
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Transistor Count Versus Year for Microprocessors
Year Introduced
Approximate Number of Transistors
Version
29,000 1.2 Million 3.1 Million 5.5 Million 7.5
Million 9.5 Million 200 Million 1 Billion
1980 1990 1993 1995 1997 1999 2005 2011
8086 80486 Pentium Pentium Pro Pentium II Pentium
III ULSI ?
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The ULSI chip in the year 2005
Minimum feature size of process technology 0.1
micro m Total number of transistors 200
million Chip size 550 mm2 Clock frequency
2-3.5 GHz Number of I/O connections 4000
Number of wiring levels 7-8 Supply
voltage 0.9-1.2 V
By the year 2011 there will be one billion
transistor on a single chip.