Problems and Prospects

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Problems and Prospects
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Overview

• To frame our discussion, consider

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Outline

• Basic Questions
• Real-World View
• Research Paradigms
• Definition
• Why Empiricism?
• Human Reasoning
• Problems Faced

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Basic Questions

• How does the chosen programming paradigm
  influence the development time on a project?
• How many defects are present in a software
  product?
• How much time should we devote to testing prior
  to shipping a product?
• How can we reduce the time-to-market for our
  products?
• How does developer expertise influence the
  development time of a product?

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In the Real-World!

• Characterize the current project and its
  environment.
• Set the quantifiable goals for successful project
  performance and improvement.
• Choose the appropriate process model and
  supporting methods and tools for this project.
• Execute the processes, construct the products,
  collect and validate the data, and analyze it to
  provide real-time feedback for corrective action.
• Analyze the data to evaluate the current
  practices, determine problems, record findings,
  and make recommendations for future project
  improvements.

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Research Paradigms (1)

• 1. Scientific method.
• A theory to explain a phenomenon is developed. A
  given hypothesis is proposed and then alternative
  variations of the hypothesis are tested and data
  collected to verify or refute the claims of the
  hypothesis.

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Research Paradigms(2)

• 2. Engineering method.
• A solution to a hypothesis is developed and
  tested. Based upon the results of the test, the
  solution is improved, until no further
  improvement is required.

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Research Paradigms(3)

• 3. Empirical method.
• A statistical method is proposed as a means to
  validate a given hypothesis. Unlike the
  scientific method, there may not be a formal
  model or theory describing the hypothesis. Data
  is collected to verify the hypothesis.

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Research Paradigms(4)

• 4. Analytical method.
• A formal theory is developed, and results
  derived from that theory can be compared with
  empirical observations.

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Definition

• Empirical
• Relying upon or derived from observation or
  experiment.

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Why Empiricism?

• Humans are creative, perceptive, and naturally
  theoretical, but we are egocentric, biased and
  overconfident when we have to form opinions based
  on our impressions.

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Human Reasoning (1)

• Initial opinions are formed rapidly and are
  based on inadequate evidence.

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Human Reasoning (2)

• We generalize from knowledge of individual cases

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Human Reasoning (3)

• Our perspective on the world is through personal
  experiences.

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Human Reasoning (4)

• We are overly influenced by expert opinion.

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Human Reasoning (5)

• Decisions are driven by the availability
  (accessibility) of information.

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Human Reasoning (6)

• Once initial impressions are formed, we act to
  conserve them.

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Human Reasoning (7)

• We can not even rely on our sense of confidence.

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Human Reasoning (8)

• We make causal connections impressionistically.

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Human Reasoning (9)

• Statistical evidence is often ignored and
  misunderstood.

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Problems Faced

• What methods can we use to help us systematically
  explore issues?
• What ancillary topics are vital to the
  exploration?
• What are my responsibilities as a practitioner in
  reporting my exploration?
• What methods are available for communicating the
  results?