Hydrologic Forecasting for Critical Water Resource Decisions

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Hydrologic Forecasting for Critical Water
Resource Decisions
Meeting Human Demands Supporting Ecosystem
Management Providing Opportunities for
Recreation Enhancing River Commerce Increasing
Agricultural Production
Gary Carter NOAAs Hydrology Program Manager
November 15, 2005
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Water Resources Forecasts
Flood warnings for local communities
Critical hydrologic information for
watersheds Water supply and soil condition
forecasts for drought risk management

• River flow
• Snowpack
• Precipitation
• Soil moisture
• Water Temperature
• Surface storage
• Ground water

Working Together Federal, Tribal, State, and
Local Agencies Private Sector and Academia
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Vision for Climate-WaterResearch-to-Operations
Climate Testbed
Climate Research Models
Service Delivery Systems Decision Support Tools
Water Customers Supply Irrigation Navigation Safe
ty
Surface and Ground Water Models
Ensemble Forecasts
Hydro-Testbed / Hydroclimatic Component
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Hydrologic Modeling

• Meteorological inputs
• Physical, Institutional,
• Legal Features
• Topography
• Vegetation, land use
• Lakes, glaciers
• Dams, locks, levees
• Reservoir operations
• Soil properties
• Irrigation, drains
• River channel shape
• River depth/flow
• Water rights
• Ground water

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From Climate Predictions to Water Management
Water Management
Hydrology and Water Resources Modeling, Data
Assimilation
Drought Mitigation Flood Management Flash Flood
Prediction Water Supply Transportation Emergency
Management Agriculture Ecosystem Stewardship
Climate Prediction Temperature Precipitation Snow
pack
Water Prediction
Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction
Decision Support Tools