Western Water Supply

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Western Water Supply

• Kevin Werner, Andrew Murray, WR/SSD
• Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise
• Cass Goodman, Steve Shumate, CBRFC
• Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC
• Don Laurine, NWRFC
• Chad Kahler, WFO Tuscon

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Outline

• Western Water Supply
• History
• Project overview
• Westwide map
• Forecast evolution
• Verification
• Ensemble services
• Future enhancements
• Climate variability and change
• Short range ensembles services

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Western Water Supply Forecasts

• Forecasts for spring runoff amounts from snow
  melt dominated basins in western US
• Routinely produced at 6 RFCs and coordinated with
  other agencies (NRCS and California DWR)
• NWS forecast program began in 1940s
• Primary forecast tools
• Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
• Multivariate Linear Regression

Legacy Water Supply Forecast Product (Credit
NRCS / NOAA)
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Project in a Nutshellwww.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwa
ter
Map Single map for all western WS forecasts
from 6 RFCs Forecast evolution Plotting
capability to show evolution of current year
forecast and observed river flow Verification
Forecast evaluation from past forecasts and
forecast tools Ensemble services Interaction
capability with ensemble streamflow
predication Data Access Access data from
database
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Milestones

• Milestones (past)
• April 2005 Working group formed, planning
  meeting held
• January 2006 Initial website launched
• September 2006 Included AB, WG, and MB RFCs in
  development
• January 2007 Common database developed
• March 2007 Launched outreach effort and included
  SHs
• September 2007 Move software to NWRFC web farm
• Milestones (future)
• December 2007
• Launch verification 1.0 capabilities
• Launch forecast evolution 2.0
• Launch ensemble services 1.0
• January 2008 Integrate WGRFC data
• 2008? Integrate climate change capabilities

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Map

• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater
• One Stop Shop for NWS water supply forecasts
• Flexible and consistent map presence across
  western USA
• Zoomable to basin scale
• Mouse over capability for forecast values

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Forecast Evolution

• Time evolution of forecast and observed
  streamflow
• Plot options include
• Observed monthly or seasonal streamflow
• Historical monthly or seasonal streamflow
• Forecast seasonal streamflow
• Accumulation options

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Forecast Evolution
Version 2.0 coming December 2007 Additions
include -ESP seasonal forecasts for easy
comparison to official forecasts -Multi-year plots
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Ensemble ServicesDecember 2007
RFC Ensemble Forecasts -Initially offered at NWS
water supply points -Display probability function
for monthly volumes -Tools included to query
historical data and forecast ensemble
members -User customizable plots
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Ensemble ServicesDecember 2007
Median Historical Runoff 1983 ensemble member
November May Seasonal Runoff
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Forecast VerificationDecember 2007

• Easy to understand
• Meaningful
• Accessible from forecasts
• Dynamically generated plots from database

Plot credit Chad Kahler
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Data AccessDecember 2007

• Access to forecast and observed data from
  database

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Future Directions
Climate Change Hydrologic Scenarios
Climate Variability and Hydrologic Response
Relationships
Short Range Hydrologic Scenarios
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Climate ChangeFresh Water Projections
Figure TS.5 (IPCC AR4, WG2). Illustrative map of
future climate change impacts on freshwater which
are a threat to the sustainable development of
the affected regions.
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Extend NWS Product Suite?
Years
Climate Change run off scenarios?

• Current product suite covers hours to seasons
• Should we consider climate change scenarios and
  build multi-year products for run-off,
  temperature, precipitation?
• User requirements from power companies, BoR, etc
  for climate change scenarios

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Climate Change Scenarios

• Example Lake Granby inflows on the Colorado
  River
• Two temperature scenarios
• Historical Temperatures
• 0.2 deg F increase per year based on historical
  temperatures

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Climate Change Scenarios (Cont)

• Corresponding simulations of Lake Granby inflows
• Warmed simulation has earlier runoffs late in the
  simulation

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Climate Change Scenarios (cont)
Hungry Horse Dam inflows on Flathead
River Simulations with 1 less precipitation per
year
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Climate Change Scenarios (cont)

• Ultimately include climate change scenarios in
  the ensemble services application for easy
  comparison with other datasets.

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Summary

• www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater
• New stuff coming in December
• We like feedback kevin.werner_at_noaa.gov