Good Morning

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Good Morning
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Thoughts for the Breakout Session on Scenario
Development and Risk-Based Decision Support
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• Chapter 4 Decision Support Resources
• Identifies Four Issues..
• Evaluation and synthesis for policy analysis and
  operational resource management,
• Analytical techniques for serving decision needs,
• Applied climate modeling, and
• Resources for risk analysis and decisionmaking
  under uncertainty.

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• Chapter 4 Decision Support Resources
• Identifies Four Issues..
• Assessments

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• Chapter 4 Decision Support Resources
• Identifies Four Issues..
• Assessments,
• Methods, Models, and Tools

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• Chapter 4 Decision Support Resources
• Identifies Four Issues..
• Assessments,
• Methods, Models, and Tools,
• Scenarios

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• Chapter 4 Decision Support Resources
• Identifies Four Issues..
• Assessments,
• Methods, Models, and Tools,
• Scenarios, and
• Decision Support Systems for Decisionmaking under
  Uncertainty.

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• Chapter 4 Decision Support Resources
• Identifies Four Issues..
• Assessments,
• Methods, Models, and Tools,
• Scenarios, and
• Decision Support Systems for Decisionmaking under
  Uncertainty.

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Experience with Assessments Strongly Suggests
that for.......

• Assessments to be effective, they should be
  implemented so that they evidence
• CREDIBILITY They are demonstrably objective and
  science/knowledge-based,
• SALIENCY Relevant to decision-making needs and
  stakeholders interests,
• LEGITIMATCY Conducted within a framework that
  complies with recognized rules, standards,
  practices, and common interests acting within
  appropriate entities.
• These three attributes are tightly
  interdependent, they have proven to be the
  essential characteristics of effective and useful
  assessments.

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Recent Experience, further Suggests that
Assessments.......

• Should be implemented so that they involve
• Not only Scientists, Technical Specialists, and
  other Experts, but
• Users, Stakeholders, and others impacted by the
  issues being addressed in the assessment and
• Individuals, Institutions and other implementers
  of decisions, policy-making, and operational
  practices.
• The concept of co-producing the assessment has
  gained increased legitimacy and is proving to be
  an effective strategy for conducting assessments
  that can lead to decisionmaking and policy
  action.

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• Chapter 4 Decision Support Resources
• Identifies Four Issues..
• Assessments,
• Methods, Models, and Tools,
• Scenarios, and
• Decision Support Systems for Decisionmaking under
  Uncertainty.

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Methods, Models, and Tools of Analysis for
Decision-making

• Case Studies augmented with Semi-Quantitative or
  Statistical Methodologies,
• Risk Disaster Analysis and Assessment,
• Re-Analysis of Historical Records,
• Integrated Modeling Simulation (Emphasizing
  Multi-Agent Approaches and Decision Theatres),
• Statistical and Stochastic Approaches (e.g.
  Economic Valuation Schemes),
• Statistical and Dynamic Downscaling Approaches,
• Extreme-Value Statistics and Non-Linear Dynamics,
• Linear Algebraic and Operational Research
  Formulations,
• Integrated Assessment Models,
• Advanced Versions of Game Theory, Policy
  Exercises, and war games,
• Matrix and Inverse Transform Methods,
• Systems Analysis, Optimization, Advanced Control
  Theoretic Models, and Criticality Theory,
• Semi-Quantitative Typology (Degradation
  Syndromes, etc.),
• Complex Indicator Approaches,
• Neural Nets,
• Expert Systems, Rule-based Models, and other
  Boolean Approaches, and
• Fuzzy Logic Approaches.

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Methods, Models, and Tools of Analysis for
Decision-making

• Case Studies augmented with Semi-Quantitative or
  Statistical Methodologies,
• Risk Disaster Analysis and Assessment,
• Re-Analysis of Historical Records,
• Integrated Modeling Simulation (Emphasizing
  Multi-Agent Approaches and Decision Theatres),
• Statistical and Stochastic Approaches (e.g.
  Economic Valuation Schemes),
• Statistical and Dynamic Downscaling Approaches,
• Extreme-Value Statistics and Non-Linear Dynamics,
• Linear Algebraic and Operational Research
  Formulations,
• Integrated Assessment Models,
• Advanced Versions of Game Theory, Policy
  Exercises, and war games,
• Matrix and Inverse Transform Methods,
• Systems Analysis, Optimization, Advanced Control
  Theoretic Models, and Criticality Theory,
• Semi-Quantitative Typology (Degradation
  Syndromes, etc.),
• Complex Indicator Approaches,
• Neural Nets,
• Expert Systems, Rule-based Models, and other
  Boolean Approaches, and
• Fuzzy Logic Approaches.

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Statistical Downscaling to Enhance Understanding
at Local Scales
Source A Study at the Abisko Laboratory of Net
Primary Production under Changing Climate
Conditions
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• Chapter 4 Decision Support Resources
• Identifies Four Issues..
• Assessments,
• Methods, Models, and Tools,
• Scenarios, and
• Decision Support Systems for Decisionmaking under
  Uncertainty.

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Scenarios They Set the Frame for the Outcomes
and Products of Assessments.

• Scenarios that Drive Climate Models A2, B2,
  IS92A, etc. as developed by the IPCC,
• Scenarios Based on Ensemble and Averaging
  Schemes Ensemble and averaging schemes in order
  to generate robust probabilistic results
  independent of particular uncertainties will be
  essential aspects of the research.
• Multiple Perturbation Scenarios Introducing both
  regular (smooth) and singular (discontinuous or
  extreme) disturbances as scenarios, urbanization
  or industrial transformation.
• Historic Transitions -- Analogue Scenarios Using
  past (i.e., using actual climates documented from
  the paleo-record and sliding it forward and
  askingwhat if this happened now?
• If then Scenarios -- If this set of conditions
  were to exist in the future, then what would be
  the impacts, vulnerabilities, and/or
  consequences?
• Worldview Scenarios Scenarios derived from
  archetypal views of the world, then transformed
  into scenarios for the analysis of plausible
  futures, e.g.,
• Conventional World driven by market forces ( Adam
  Smith view)
• Conventional World driven by policy stewardship (
  Keynes and Brundtland view)
• A Breakdown World driven by gloom, population
  catastrophe ( Malthus view)
• A Fortress World driven by social chaos (Hobbes
  view)
• A Great Transitions World driven by
  eco-communualism (Utopians, Ghandhi view)
• A Great Transitions World driven by a
  sustainability paradigm (Mills view)
• A Muddling Through World driven by no grand
  philosophies (The Let George do it approach)

There is a wide range of strategies, we should
broaden our options to analyze and to estimate
plausible futures in response to climate
variability and change.
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A World Summit Implementation, Focuses the
Scenarios on the Impacts and Consequences in Five
Key Sectors, the WEHAB Approach by Assessment the
Impacts and Vulnerabilities for

• Water,
• Energy,
• Health,
• Agriculture, and
• Biodiversity.

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• Chapter 4 Decision Support Resources
• Identifies Four Issues..
• Assessments,
• Methods, Models, and Tools,
• Scenarios, and
• Decision Support Systems for Decisionmaking under
  Uncertainty.

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Lets Pause and Look at the Arctic
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