Liquid Biofuels for the Land Transport Sector in Asia: Implications for the Global Environment

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Liquid Biofuels for the Land Transport Sector in
Asia Implications for the Global Environment

• Jerome Weingart
• May 24, 2006

ADB consultant
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Very recent flood of major studies on renewable
energy and biofuels
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The future (?) 6-fold GHG emissions growth from
Asia road transport
Reference case (from IEA/SMP model)
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Objectives of the biofuels study

• Compare life-cycle GHG emissions from various
  biodiesel and bioethanol fuels
• Review bioethanol and biodiesel fuel production
  in Asia
• Assess potential of low-GHG biofuels to displace
  GHG emissions for road transport
• Identify policy, TA, and other measures to
  stimulate biofuels production and use

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Liquid biofuels for transport

• Ethanol, produced from sugar cane, corn, sugar
  beets, wheat, and potentially from cellulosic
  feedstocks (gasoline additive and replacement)
• Biodiesel, made from vegetable oils from soy,
  rape, palm, coconut, Jatropha, and other oil seed
  crops (petro-diesel additive and replacement)

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Some desirable characteristics of liquid biofuels
for transport

• Biodiesel compatible with petrodiesel in existing
  and new diesel light duty vehicles
• Bioethanol can be used in millions of existing
  flexible fuel vehicles (FFV) up to 85 ethanol /
  15 gasoline (E85), and in commercial autos
  designed for 100 ethanol use (Brazil)
• Both fuels fit the existing road transport,
  fuel, and vehicle infrastructures

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Why are we interested in biofuels for the Asian
road transport sector?

• Potentially competitive with petrofuels
• Indigenous, can offset imported petroleum
• Significant reduction in tailpipe emissions
• Potential for major reduction (80 95) in net
  unit life-cycle GHG emissions compared with
  petrofuels, and
• Potential for large-scale sustainable production

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What is Driving Growth in Biofuels Production?

• Air quality demands for cleaner fuels
• Oil supply uncertainties / fuel security
• Very high and volatile oil prices
• Biofuels increasingly competitive
• Policy incentives and mandates for biofuels
• Global warming (a minor driver)

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Crude oil, ethanol, and biodiesel global
production in 2002
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Benefits Biofuels Production and Use

• Environmental impacts
• GHG emission displacement
• Improved air quality
• Geographic diversity of supply
• Economic benefits
• Income generation
• Rural income expansion and diversification
• Displacement of imported fossil fuels
• Adds diversity and risk reduction to energy
  portfolio
• Security benefits

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Constraints Biofuels Production and Use

• Potential competition for food production
• Availability of suitable land

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Constraints Biofuels Production and Use

• Environmental impacts (land conversion)
• Tropical forest replacement by monocrops /
  deforestation
• Diminished ecological diversity and resilience
• Nutrient leaching
• Pollution from chemicals
• Loss of watersheds
• Soil erosion, mud slides, and forest fires
• Global environmental impacts nitrogen oxides
  from agriculture

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Ethanol Production in 2005(billion liters per
year)
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Biofuels from field to wheels life-cycle
analysis and GHG emissions
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What is life-cycle analysis?

• Comprehensive methodology to identify and
  quantify inputs, outputs, and impacts of a
  production process
• Outputs include total GHGs produced and net
  energy (energy per liter of biofuel minus
  petroleum energy input)
• LCAs needed for feedstock / biofuels options in
  Asia

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Life-cycle stages for fuels
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GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels
Field-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from
biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel
Source L. Fulton (2004), IEA (currently UNEP)
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Asia Vehicle
Transport Sector
Scenarios for market penetration of low-GHG
biofuels
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What is a scenario?

• A scenario is like a screen play for the future.
  
• A scenario is NOT a prediction it asks what
  if, using rules that reflect real world market
  dynamics and constraints

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What is a market penetration scenario?

• Model of a possible future
• Analytic logistic penetration model for
  increasing market share of an intruder into an
  incumbent market (S-shaped curve)
• Permits specification of key parameters to assess
  impacts of alternative penetration rates and
  ultimate market fraction for new options
• Has been widely validated

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Real-world market penetration dynamics

• Market penetration has distinct phases
• Pioneering Conceptual through research and
  development
• Preparing to go to market prototype production
• Market feedback Market testing and evaluation
• Major commercial launch Launching of commercial
  options, with wide-spread marketing and support
• Robust expansion of successful launches through
  larger facilities and decreased production costs
  (learning and experience curve effects)

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Real-world market penetration dynamics

• Market penetration has distinct phases
• Takeoff, with increasingly rapid penetration of
  the total market of the incumbent (e.g.
  petrodiesel fuels)
• Market dynamism, with substantial and rapidly
  growing market share
• Maturation Gradual slowdown in rate of
  penetration as market potential (e.g., 50 of
  total Asia LDV petrodiesel market) is reached.
• The rate of penetration from 1 to 99 of the
  potential market varies widely among technologies

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Stages of market penetration
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IEA ethanol share of gasoline
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International Energy Agency reviewof biofuels
prospects and issues

• Global technical potential for biofuels is large,
  perhaps 50 of transport fuels by 2050
• Ethanol from sugar cane in developing countries
  could provide 10 of global transport fuel needs
  by 2020, at relatively low cost

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GHG annual emissions from diesel and gasoline
transport fuels in Asia
Reference case (IEA/SMP)
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Asia road transport GHG emissions with and
without accelerated biofuels penetration S2
Business as usual GHG emissions
Biofuels and reduced GHG emissions
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Asia road transport GHG emissions with and
without extreme biofuels penetration S1
Business as usual GHG emissions
High biofuels penetration GHG emissions
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How to maximize biofuels impacts

• Reduce growth in transport fuel demand
• Increased end use efficiency is much less
  expensive than expanding supply
• This is the golden rule for renewables

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Some key questions large-scale biofuels
production

• Land availability for various feedstock / fuel
  production options production levels
• Associated requirements for water, nutrients,
  labor, capital, etc.
• Specific environmental impacts at various levels
  of biofuels production
• Requirements for biofuels enabling environment
  (policies, incentives, etc.)

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Potential next steps

• Life-cycle analysis / assessment for Asia for
  bio-ethanol and biodiesel options
• Collaboration among national biofuels working
  groups using compatible LCA methodologies
• Establishment of biofuels collaborative for
  collaboration, coordination, technical
  assistance, and knowledge management

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For more information

• Jerome Weingart
• jmweingart_at_aol.com
• Web site www.adb.org

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Thank you!
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Life-cycle stages for fuels
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IEA ethanol share of gasoline