Estimation of Genetic Multipliers for Douglas-Fir Height- and Diameter-Growth Models Peter J. Gould, David D. Marshall, Randy Johnson and Greg Johnson

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Estimation of Genetic Multipliers for Douglas-Fir
Height- and Diameter-Growth Models Peter J.
Gould, David D. Marshall, Randy Johnson and Greg
Johnson
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1. Estimate growth differences between average
(woods-run) tree and individual families in
terms of genetic-gain multipliers. 2. Relate
multipliers to breeding value (BV percent gain
at age 10).3. Evaluate multipliers effects in
model.
Study Objectives
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Effect of Multipliers

Initial Size Advantage
Gain Multiplier 0.05
Typical Tree
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Coop breeding zone. Completely independent
families. Sites Geographical locations within
coops.
NWTIC 1st-Generation Progeny Tests
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DBH Data Variation between Coops
10-YR GROWTH PERIOD
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DBH Data Variation between Sites
10-YR GROWTH PERIOD
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DBH Data Variation between Sets
10-YR GROWTH PERIOD
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DBH Data Breeding Values
BV Age 10 Gain 1 (percent)
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1. Average growth woods run.2. Multipliers
work with any unbiased growth model.3. Removing
sources of variation other than genetics is very
important.
Modeling Strategy Assumptions
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Strategy1. Fit models with random effects at
site-set level.2. Calculate genetic multiplier
(m) for each family at coop level. Obs m
Pred3. Estimate m from BV. m A0 A1
BV
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gt16 coopsgt 109 sitesgt 513 site-setsgt 2485
familiesgt 222 818 observations
10-YR Modeling Dataset HT Model
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?HT b1HTb2b3HTrandom effects on
b1,b2,b3Fixed Effects ?HT
231.7HT0.940.86HT
HT Model 1
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HT Model 1
Model R2
Base 37.6
Base random effect 69.0
Residual Variation () 31.0
Between Families () 2.4
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HT Model Results Family M
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gt7 coopsgt 45 sitesgt 193 site-setsgt 1160
familiesgt 76 012 observations
Modeling Datasets DBH Model
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?DBH b1DBHb2b3DBHb4BA REPrandom effects on
b1,b2,b3Fixed Effects ?DBH
3.7DBH0.31.01DBH0.97BA REP
DBH Model 1
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DBH Model 1
Model R2
Base 25.5
Base random effect 61.6
Residual Variation () 38.4
Between Families () 3.3
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DBH Model Results Family M
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10-yr A1 estimates
Study Ht Diameter
Gould 0.001434 0.001577
Marshall 0.001498 0.001657 --
R. Johnson (BV 13) 0.001145 --
G. Johnson (assume BV13) 0.001824 0?
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Other Periods

• Ht data for 5-yr (167,000 obs) and 15-yr (7600
  obs) growth.
• DBH data for 5-yr (7,700 obs) and 15-yr growth
  (20,000).
• Estimates of m are higher for 5-yr, but about
  the same for 15-yr growth.

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Whats Next?

• Manuscript on multipliers.
• ORGANON interface.
• Test multipliers.