Fabian Wagner IIASA

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Fabian WagnerIIASA

• Methodology of the GAINS model
• Concawe GAINS seminar
• December 1, 2006
• Brussels

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Agenda

• Rationale and scope of GAINS
• Differences between GAINS and RAINS
• Conclusions

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Rationale

• Air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) often
  stem from the same sources
• Energy consumption contributes a large proportion
  to total emissions
• Changes in energy consumption patterns can
  influence emissions of both air pollutants and
  GHGs
• There are physical and economic interactions
  between control measures

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GAINS GHG-Air pollution INteractions and
Synergies A new tool to analyze synergies
between air pollution and GHGs

• Extension of the RAINS integrated assessment
  model for air pollution to GHGs
• SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM and CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC,
  CFC, SF6
• First implementation for Europe completed, work
  on China and India underway, feasibility study
  for Latin America completed.
• GHG emissions consistent with UNFCCC, GHG cost
  data from reviewed literature,air pollution and
  cost data reviewed by European stakeholders

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Common issues for emission control strategiesfor
air pollution and greenhouse gases

• Measures with simultaneous impacts on GHG and
  air pollutant emissions
• Synergies from efficiency improvements, increased
  use of natural gas, agricultural measures, etc.
• Renewables
• Trade-offs for desulfurization, technology
  lock-in, etc.
• Bio-fuels
• Combustion in small sources increases PM and
  thus causes negative health impacts
• Radiative forcing of incomplete combustion
  products (VOC and PM) could compensate effects
  of C reduction
• Diesel
• Health impacts of PM, radiative impacts of black
  carbon
• Methane reductions
• Yield multiple benefits on radiative forcing and
  ozone

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The GAINS model The RAINS multi-pollutant/
multi-effect framework extended to GHGs
Economic synergies between emission control
measures
PM SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2O CFCsHFCsSF6
Health impacts PM ? ? ? ? ?
O3 ? ? ?
Vegetation damage O3 ? ? ?
Acidification ? ? ?
Eutrophication ? ?
Radiative forcing - direct ? ? ? ?
- via aerosols ? ? ? ? ?
- via OH ? ? ?
PM SO2 NOx VOC NH3
Health impacts PM ? ? ? ? ?
O3 ? ?
Vegetation damage O3 ? ?
Acidification ? ? ?
Eutrophication ? ?



Physical interactions
Multiple benefits
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Measures affecting more than 1 pollutant
potential for synergies and trade-offs

• Examples
• 3-way catalyst NOx (?) , PM (?), but N2O (?),
  NH3 (?)
• Switch to gas CO2 (?), but CH4 (?) (ceteris
  paribus) from transport and distribution
• Gas flaring CH4 (?), but CO2 (?), NOx (?)
• Carbon Capture and storage CO2 (?), but fuel use
  (?)
• Pellet stove NOx (?) , PM (?)
• Waste incineration CH4 (?), demand for other
  fuels (?), but CO2 (?)
• Reduced fertilizer application N2O (?), energy
  (?)

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Agenda

• Rationale and scope of GAINS
• Differences between GAINS and RAINS
• Conclusions

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Differences between GAINS and RAINS in the
optimization (overview)
RAINS GAINS
Greenhouse Gases -
Optimization of multi-pollutant technologies -
Single pollutant cost curves ()
Energy efficiency improvements -
Fuel substitutions -
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Emission control options considered in GAINSwith
country/region-specific application potentials
and costs

• CO2
• 162 options for power plants, transport,
  industry, domestic
• CH4
• 28 options for the gas sector, waste management,
  enteric fermentation, manure management, coal
  mines, rice paddies
• N2O
• 18 options for arable land and grassland,
  industry, combustion, health care, waste
  treatment
• F-gases
• 22 options for refrigeration, mobile and
  stationary air conditioning, HCFC22 production,
  primary aluminum production, semiconductor
  industry and other sectors
• Air pollutants
• 1500 options for SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM

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Differences between GAINS and RAINS in the
optimization (overview)
RAINS GAINS
Greenhouse Gases -
Optimization of multi-pollutant technologies -
Single pollutant cost curves ()
Energy efficiency improvements -
Fuel substitutions -
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Optimization a primer

• Linear optimization of air pollution control
  strategies in RAINS/GAINS
• Objective minimize (Costs)
• s.t. EnvEffectk lt Limitk
• Minimize costs, such that environmental effects
  do not exceed pre-defined limits
• (there are additional technology constraints,
  e.g.
• maximum application rates
• vintage structure
• etc)

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RAINS optimization The use of single-pollutant
national cost curves
BUT underestimation of potential
synergies and trade-offs for multi-pollutant
objectives!
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Multi-pollutant technologies and single
pollutant cost curves

• Recall how cost curves are constructed
• Marginal cost and potential reduction
• 3-way catalyst NOx (?) , PM (?), but N2O (?),
  NH3 (?)
• gt Do we pay for NOx reduction or PM reduction?
• Both!
• Allocation of cost to a pollutant is arbitrary
  and confusing!

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Differences between GAINS and RAINS in the
optimization (technology representation)

• RAINS optimization
• Decide how far to move up the cost curve (keep
  underlying activity fix!)
• Exclude multipollutant technologies
• GAINS optimization
• Decide which technology to use (incl.
  multi-pollutant)
• If cost-effective and possible, change the
  underlying activity (through e.g. efficiency
  improvement)

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GAINS cost curves vs RAINS cost curves
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Differences between GAINS and RAINS in the
optimization (overview)
RAINS GAINS
Greenhouse Gases -
Optimization of multi-pollutant technologies -
Single pollutant cost curves ()
Energy efficiency improvements -
Fuel substitutions -
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RAINS/GAINS single pollutant optimization With
and without Efficiency improvements fuel
substitutions
More stringent emission ceiling
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Cost Projections of Single Pollutant Cost Curves
and Maximum Feasible Reductions in GAINS
DE, 2020, PRIMES00
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Technology approach vs cost curve approach

• Advantages
• Adequate representation of multi-pollutant
  technologies
• Dynamic interaction between activity data (e.g.
  energy system) and emission control
• Simultaneous treatment of AP control and GHG
  abatement increases economic efficiency
• No artificial cost-pollutant allocation necessary
• Disadvantage
• Simple single pollutant cost curves can be
  constructed but may be misleading

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Conclusions

• There are multiple interactions between air
  pollutants and greenhouse gases/climate change
• Economic synergies
• Multiple benefits in joint approaches
• Physical interactions in the atmosphere
• Differences in approach GAINS-RAINS
• Benefits of GAINS approach
• Adequate representation of multi-pollutant
  technologies
• Representation of efficiency improvement measures
  and fuel substitutions
• Extension of the range of possible emission
  reductions
• MFR concept embedded in GHG mitigation context

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GAINS model documentation