Strategic Plan2001

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Strategic Plan2001
Strategic Plan2005Science-Society Interactions

• Challenges identified for NCAR
• Intellectual
• Human resource development and education
• Application of science to societal needs

Societal needs of the next half-century Global
population Technological development and effects
on environment Global climate change and other
environmental changes, including surprises
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Strategic Plan2005Science-Society Interactions
Strategic Plan2001

• Objectives
• Develop science for national/international
  assessments of climate variability and change,
  ozone depletion, etc.
• Improve understanding of the science-practice
  interface
• Develop collaborative ties to other societal
  impacts centers and relevant stakeholder groups

• Activities
• Annual meeting on climate change
  science/decision-making
• Policy-relevant research
• Create and distribute scientific information in
  response to societal needs
• Foster dialogues on atmospheric issues with
  interested publics
• Public outreach summary and explanation of
  research activities results, and their
  linkage-relevance to societal concerns national
  needs

• Activities
• Annual climate change science/decision-maker
  meeting
• Policy-relevant research
• Create and distribute scientific information in
  response to societal needs
• Foster dialogues on atmospheric issues with
  interested publics
• Public outreach summary and explanation of
  research activities results, and their
  linkage-relevance to societal concerns national
  needs

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Strategic Plan2001
Strategic Plan2005Science-Society Interactions
NCARs Mission

to support, enhance, and extend the capabilities
of the university community, nationally and
internationally
to understand the
behavior of
the atmospheric and related systems and the
global environment
and to foster
the transfer of
knowledge and technology for the betterment of
life on Earth.
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Challenges Related to the Atmosphere Climate
Change Imposes Increased Risks to Environment
(Biosphere) and Society
Biosphere what were really interested in
environmental changes by themselves are not the
problem, its what those environmental changes
mean for life
NCAR does a tremendous job in its intellectual
and technological contributions to understanding
climate and weather
There needs to be a stronger link to where the
science is needed most Society and Ecosystems
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Climate Change
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TWO Major Challenges

• Linking climate change and the biosphere
• Linking society and science

"I say the debate is over. We know the science,
we see the threat and we know the time for action
is now." -- A. Schwarzenegger, June 1,
2005 Environmental Action Plan for CA 2010, 2000
levels 2020, 1990 levels 2050, 80 of 1990 levels
"If we are saying that the loss of species in and
of itself is inherently bad I don't think we
know enough about how the world works to say
that." Craig Manson, Int. Dept., appointed by
Pres. Bush to oversee Endangered Species Act,
Nov. 12, 2003
Ive always said its a serious long-term issue
that needs to be dealt with, and my
administration isnt waiting around... we lead
the world when it comes to dollars spent -
millions of dollars spent - on research about
climate change. We want to know more about it.
Its easier to solve a problem when you know a
lot about it. G. W. Bush, June 7, 2005,
Meeting with Tony Blair
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE
1 Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems (both
managed and wild ecosystems)

• Why this challenge?

• Human activities affect virtually every ecosystem

• Interactions between climate, ecosystems, and
  resource use are critical to understanding
• climate change
• environmental impacts
• societal response options

• Societal welfare ultimately depends on ecosystem
  welfare

• The larger calling
• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment identified gaps
  that fit within NCARs mission.

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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE
1 Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems

• The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scientific
  gaps
• Nature of interactions among drivers in
  particular regions and across scales
• Responses of ecosystems to changes in nutrients
  and CO2
• Nonlinear changes in ecosystems thresholds
  dynamic characteristics of systems that lead to
  irreversible changes
• Relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem
  services
• Approaches to nest or link scenarios developed at
  different geographic scales
• Models of the relationship between ecosystems and
  human well-being
• Models to link ecological and social processes
• Communicating to non-specialists the complexity
  of holistic models and scenarios involving
  ecosystem services.

Assessment
Modeling
Comm.
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE
1 Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems
1996-2005 50 published studies using GCM climate
predictions in ecosystem studies 34 Hadley
(HadCM2, HadCM3) 16 CGCM 13 NCAR (CSM, CCSM,
LSM, PCM, RegCM) 7 ECHAM
4 CSIRO
Combine climate change predictions with ecosystem
response predictions
Simple - organism level Complex - ecosystem
response feedbacks (carbon cycle work)
Extremes rather than averages Variables useful to
ecosystem studies Include ecosystems in models
Develop model output useful to ecosystem studies
Data accessibility Dedicated visitor
program Colloquia
Encourage use of that output
University researchers, ecosystem managers,
etc Some work already being tackled
Fisheries, agriculture, water resources
Ensure that climate change is considered in
ecosystem management
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE
2 Improving Science-Society Interactions

• Why this challenge?

• Climate stresses on society will increase
• What makes societal systems vulnerable?
• What increases societys adaptive capacity?
• Where are thresholds to societal adaptability?

• The demand for relevant scientific information in
  support of decision-making will increase in all
  weather- and climate-sensitive sectors
• What, when, in what form do decision-makers
  need scientific information? How can mutual
  interactions, trust, and benefits be increased?

• The sustainability transition requires a
  significant role of (atmospheric) science and
  technology and understanding of human dynamics

The larger calling IPCC assessments TAR and
AR4 point to need for better decision-support,
understanding of human system dynamics CCSP
Strategic Plan growing interest in decision
support Nat. Acad. Sci. various efforts
linking physical and social sciences in context
of global environmental change GEO Global
Environment Outlook of UNEP
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE
2 Improving Science-Society Interactions
Enhanced research on science-decision making
interactions, VAR, societal interactions
Identification of critical thresholds in societal
and environmental systems
Facilitate use of science in critical
decisions Increase preparedness for weather
climate impacts and change Role in national
international assessments
Growing partnerships with decision-makers in
government and private sector
Modeling the human-system component of CCSM and
regional models
Develop regional-global models that capture
societal inputs in Earth System Modeling efforts
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecologica
l Impacts Science-Society Interactions
NCAR uniqueness, role as integrator and
facilitator
Credible information source with tremendous
modeling and expert capacity Organizational
structure that allows cross-disciplinary
collaboration NCAR can seize the opportunity to
apply its expertise (atmospheric science) in
biospheric and societal studies
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecologica
l Impacts Science-Society Interactions
Scientific activities to make progress in topic
area
Enhanced research on sciencedecision-making
interaction, vulnerability-adaptation-resilience,
and on societal interactions Growing partnerships
with decision-makers in government and private
sector Enhanced research on ecological impacts
stronger engagement of universities, etc Combine
climate change predictions with ecosystem
response predictions Develop model output useful
to ecosystem studies Encourage use of that output
through workshops, etc.
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecologica
l Impacts Science-Society Interactions
Leverage strengths/expertise of labs, divisions
and institutes
SERE-ISSE SERE-CCB SERE-Box4 ESSL-CGD-CCSM,
TIMES/BGS, ACD Climate Modeling Modeling human
system component of CCSM Air-pollution
modeling RAL - Decision-making tools ECSA Junior
Faculty Forum Downscaling Climate Change
Extreme Events, Regional Impacts, and Ecosystems
Opportunity Fund ecology-climate proposals

• Vulnerability/adaptation
• Use/value of information
• Decision-making under uncertainty
• Communication and social change
• Regional modeling

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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecologica
l Impacts Science-Society Interactions
Tools needed to develop, improve or extend goals
GIS, agent-based modeling, policy analysis and
other decision-support tools Achieving some
goals are not tool-dependent Modeling,
ecological forecasting, dataset development
(e.g., GIS) Statistical downscaling and
statistics of extreme events
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecologica
l Impacts Science-Society Interactions
Support NCAR community service mission Desira
ble/essential partnerships within/outside NCAR
(esp. universities)
The mission of NCAR Realize science in the
service of society by better understanding the
interaction between science and society Research
and information transfer for the betterment of
life on Earth Natural integration across many
NCAR groups University Community (beyond
atmospheric Sciences Environmental and Social
Sciences) Government agencies (national to
local) RISA and other research assessment
centers International research centers NGOs Priva
te sector (e.g., energy companies, water
resources, insurance)
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecologica
l Impacts Science-Society Interactions
Education, Outreach, Knowledge transfer
Natural avenue for connecting with public Make
better use of NCARs expertise Expand public
awareness of societal dependence on ecosystems,
and ecosystem dependence on climate
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MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecologica
l Impacts Science-Society Interactions
NCAR Capacity to Undertake Suggested Program
EXISTING SUPPORT1. Assessment Initiative 2.
Regional Modeling 3. ASP Postdoctoral
Program 4. CCB 5. RAL Technical support 6.
ESSL Climate change research

• NEEDS
• Human Resources
• Ecosystem Scientists
• Social Scientists
• Strong visitor program
• Strong Outreach
• Workshops
• Data development

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SUMMARY Ecological Impacts Science-Society
Interactions
Improving Interactions between Science and Society

• Requirements
• Understand societal needs (environment, health,
  well-being)
• Understand societal response to climate change
  and other environmental issues
• Advance research that leads to betterment of
  life on Earth
• This will help NCAR in its application of NCAR
  science to societal needs and will better
  illustrate the relevance of NCARs work
• Two main challenges are natural avenues for
  pursuing these goals
• Encouraging stronger research on Science-Society
  Interaction
• Stronger application of NCAR science to
  environmental studies