Michele Salis

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Climate Change Impacts on Wildfires
Working Group Donatella Spano Pierpaolo Duce
Costantino Sirca Michele Salis Valentina
Bacciu Bachisio Arca Grazia Pellizzaro

• Michele Salis
• (miksalis_at_uniss.it)
• DESA - University of Sassari

3rd CMCC Workshop, Ugento, 10-12 June 2009
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Average Burned Areas (2000-2007) in Europe
On average (2000-2007), European Countries
experienced about 90,000 fires per year, with
about 600,000 hectares of burned areas
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Average Fire Number (2000-2007) in Europe
On average (2000-2007), European Countries
experienced about 90,000 fires per year, with
about 600,000 hectares of burned areas
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European Fire Frequency (per Month)
Camia, 2008
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Fires are considered to be governed by
climate and weather fuels (i.e.,
vegetation) topography socio-economics
In several areas of the world, weather was found
to be the most important factor influencing
forest fires
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In European Mediterranean areas, 20 of fires
account for about 80 of burned areas (European
Forestry Corps). In Southern California, 10 of
fires account for about 90 of burned areas
(Minnich, 1998)
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Extreme Fire Events
Heat Waves Droughts Winds Lightnings
There is a need to improve our knowledge of these
extreme weather conditions for past, actual and
future weather conditions linked with extreme
fires
June-September 2000-2007, Sardinia
Sirca et al., 2008
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Global warming is likely to increase fire
frequency and severity worldwide, and to increase
the burned areas Various overseas studies have
shown this (Goldammer and Price, 1998 Stocks et
al., 1998 Flannigan et al., 2000, 2005, 2008
Mouillot et al., 2002 Wotton et al., 2003 Brown
et al., 2004 Fried et al., 2004 Hennessy et
al., 2005 McCoy and Burn, 2005 Kasischke and
Turetsky, 2006 Pearce et al., 2006 Moriondo et
al. 2006 IPCC, 2007 Miller, 2007 Sirca et al.,
2007 Balshi et al., 2008 Camia et al., 2008
Good et al., 2008 Krawchuk et al. 2008 Arca et
al., 2009)
Several studies point clearly to the impact of
climate change on fires, but ignore the indirect
path by which climate affects vegetation and
socio-economics dynamics
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WILDLAND FIRES UNDER CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS
FUME Project Forest fires under climate, social
and economic changes in Europe, the Mediterranean
and other fire-affected areas of the world CMCC
Divisions IAFENT, ANS, CIP

• Analysis and Understanding of Past and Present
  Wildland Fires
• Future Fire Regime Assessment under changing
  climate, socio-economics and land use
• Approaches and procedures to manage risks and
  landscapes to reduce vulnerability to fire
• gtgtgt Fires at Wildland Urban Interface (WUI)

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Analysis and Understanding of Past and Present
Wildland Fires
Days with number of fires gt 40 1995-2005
REQUIRED DATA Observed/forecasted daily
meteorological data
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Analysis and Understanding of Past and Present
Wildland Fires
Synoptic pattern of days with burned areas higher
than the 90 percentile of the distribution of
all summer days (19802000)
REQUIRED DATA Synoptic Pattern Maps and
Associated Data (about 20 x 20 km)
(Pereira et al., 2005 Portugal)
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Past, Present and Future Wildland Fires
.
Development of an Integrated Fire Danger Index
(IFI)
REQUIRED DATA Observed Data (20 x 20 km) Future
Climate Data Land Use
23 July 2007 12.000 ha 53 fires
Sirca et al., 2008 Sardinia
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IFI Calibration Percentile Analysis,
Distribution Frequency, Logistic Regression
AD - All Days
FD - Fire Days
MFD Multiple Fire Days (gt 4)
LFD Large Fire Days (gt 10 ha)
LAFD Large Average Fire Days (gt 4 ha/fire)
Sirca et al., 2008 Sardinia
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Comparison between Regional Climate Model Data
and Observed Data (1961-1990, SINTA Project)
High Accuracy
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Comparison between Regional Climate Model Data
and Observed Data (1961-1990, SINTA Project)
High Accuracy
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Analysis of Past and Present Wildland Fires
.
Analysis and Modeling of Fires in Mediterranean
Areas
REQUIRED DATA Measured Data Observed Data (20 x
20 km) Seasonal Forecasted Data Land Use
Arca et al., 2007 Salis, 2007 Sardinia
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Future Change Projections
.
Effects of Drought and Heat Waves on Fire
Behaviour and Occurrence
Italian Regions WUI Areas
Differences in burned areas moving from moderate
to severe (15 and to extreme (26) conditions
A remarkable increase of ROS and FLI values for
both severe (66 and 93) and extreme (177
and 248) conditions
(Salis et al., 2009 Arca et al., 2009 Sardinia)

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Future Change Projections
.

• Other factors to be considered
• Technological improvements ?
• Fire prevention strategies ?
• Education and formation ?

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Future Change Projections
.
What might the role of forest fire emissions be
in influencing future climate?
In Canada, CO2 fire emissions vary widely among
years, ranging from 3 to 115 Mt C/year
Across Canada, an average of 1.3 kg of carbon is
lost per m2 of burned area, but this amount
varies from among different ecozones
(Amiro et al., 2002 Canada)
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Thank you for your attention!
Michele Salis (miksalis_at_uniss.it
miksalis_at_yahoo.it)