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How will Climate Change Affect Weather Patterns
in the Great Lakes Region? Peter J.
Sousounis Geography Department Michigan State
University, East Lansing, MI www.geo.msu.edu/glr
a
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Background Information

• Greenhouse gases make our planet habitable
• Too much of a good thing can be bad
• GCMs are our climatological crystal ball
• Recent motivation

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Climate Scenarios - Temperature

• Both GCMs (General Circulation Models) indicate
  a warmer future by the end of the century
• Canadian Model is considerably warmer than Hadley
  Model

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Climate Scenarios - Precipitation

• Both GCMs (General Circulation Models) indicate
  increased precipitation
• Canadian Model drier than Hadley in Eastern US
  regions wetter in Southwestern US and
  mountainous regions

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Monthly Thickness - Future Conditions
Thickness of the lower half of the atmosphere
reflects surface temperature in a large scale
way. A thicker atmosphere is a warmer atmosphere.
CANADIAN
HADLEY

• Canadian Model shows significant increases in
  thickness throughout the year by the end of the
  century
• Hadley Model shows overall smaller changes than
  Canadian Model
• Both Models show greater increases in fall
  winter, than spring summer

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Arctic Blasts - Current Scenario
0s-10s
20s-30s
Current arctic air outbreaks cause daytime temps
to be in the single digits and teens as far south
as Kentucky.
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Arctic Blasts - Future Scenario
0s-10s
20s-30s
Such air masses will likely be confined to Canada
by the end of this century.
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Monthly Precipitation - Future Conditions
CANADIAN
HADLEY

• Canadian shows an increase of 8 in annual
  precipitation by 2099. Most of the increase
  occurs during January-June

• Hadley shows an increase of 12. Most of the
  increase occurs during July-December

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Why Should Precipitation Increase?

• More frequent storms
• Slower storms
• Stronger storms
• Moister storms
• More efficient storms

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Heavy Precipitation DAYS for Detroit, Michigan

• Both models suggest an increase in interannual
  variability
• Canadian Model shows increases from 6 to 8 days
• Hadley Model increases from 3 to 6 days

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Heavy Precipitation AMOUNT for Detroit, Michigan

• Both models suggest an increase in interannual
  variability
• Canadian Model shows increases from 160 to 240 mm
  
• Hadley Model shows increases from 68 to 133 mm

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Precipitation - Hadley Extreme PCN Pattern
Both models show similar patterns for the current
and future climate scenarios but with lows
farther to the southwest. The Canadian Model
shows increases from 40 to 47 mm
CURRENT
FUTURE
The Hadley Model (above) shows a precipitation
increase from 23 to 29 mm. The heavier
precipitation in both models will likely result
from slightly more intense lows and sharper warm
fronts.
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Monthly Storms - Future Climate
CANADIAN
HADLEY
Both models show a decrease in cyclones and a
reduction in associated windspeed. The Canadian
Model shows a big decrease in cyclones from late
spring/ mid summer and from late fall/ mid
winter. The Hadley Model shows a big decrease in
cyclones in winter and a bigger decrease in
spring.
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Snow Depth - Historic, Hadley Canadian
80 inches
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Snow Depth - Historic, Hadley Canadian
80 inches
46 inches
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Snow Depth - Historic, Hadley Canadian
80 inches
46 inches
10 inches
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Snow Days - Historic, Hadley Canadian
Historic Record Hadley Model Canadian
Model
gt1 Snow Day
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Snow Days - Historic, Hadley Canadian
Historic Record Hadley Model Canadian
Model
gt1 Snow Day
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Snow Days - Historic, Hadley Canadian
Historic Record Hadley Model Canadian
Model
gt1 Snow Day
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A SAD Story
Unfortunately, while it may become too warm for
snow, it will still be too cold for people to
switch to other (typically summertime)
recreational activities such as camping, golfing,
and bicycling. More people may find themselves
stuck at home and there may be more incidences of
Seasonal Affective Disorder - a SAD state of
affairs indeed.
Peter Sousounis - The Future of Lake-Effect Snow
A SAD Story, Jan-Feb Acclimations
http//www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalasses
sment/newsletter/2000.02/Lakefx.html
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Future Winter Flow Patterns
Both models suggest more frequent and intense El
Ninos - especially the Hadley Model
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Summary

• Climate change in the Great Lakes region will be
  manifested by changes in winds and storm tracks
  as well as by changes in temperature and
  precipitation.
• Extreme hot days will occur at least twice as
  frequently, extreme precipitation events will
  increase in frequency and intensity. The number
  of cyclones will decrease by 15 and windspeeds
  will decrease by 10.
• Interannual variability will also likely
  increase.
• The magnitudes of the climate changes will likely
  have significant impacts on ecosystems in the
  region.