Tourism in the Face of the New Challenges

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Tourism in the Face of the New Challenges
UNWTO and Federal Agency for Tourism Seminar
on Domestic Tourism Modern Marketing
Technologies Moscow, 23 March 2009
Sandra Carvao Deputy Chief, Market Trends and
Competitivenessscarvao_at_unwto.org
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2008 turbulence and change of trend
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Significant slowdown
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Sharp reversal of trend
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Diverse regional picture
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Northern Europe hardest hit
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International tourism volume and receiptsin
normal times growth in receipts close to growth
in arrivals
Asian financial and economic crisis expenditure
grew slower
11S, SARS, economic downturn receipts more
affected
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Outbound International Tourism Expenditure 2008
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Outlook for 2009
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World, Growth of Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) First contraction since World War II

• Downward revisions
• 2.2 in Nov. 08
• 0.5 in January 09

Source International Monetary Fund (IMF), March
2009
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Advanced economies, GDP growth Already in
recession

• Downward revisions
• -0.3 in Nov. 08
• -2 in January 09

Source International Monetary Fund (IMF), WEO
Jan. 2009 Update
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Emerging market and developing economies, GDP
growth emerging economies not immune to global
downturn
Source International Monetary Fund (IMF), WEO
Jan. 2009 Update
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International Tourist Arrivals, World
Forecast 2009 between -2 and 0
Preliminary results
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International Tourism
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When and how will recovery come
length?
depth?
Source World Tourism Organization
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Tourisms resilience
7 a year between 2004 and 2007
Asian Financial Crisis
11S
Iraq, SARS
Gulf War / disintegration of Yugoslavia
Echo of second oil crisis / Falklands and
Israel-Lebanon conflicts
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As in previous crises
Repeat visitors, visiting friends and relatives
(VFR), special interest and independent
travellers Impact on business travel Late
booking, wait and see, shop around - Length of
stay and expenditure Value for money
destinations (exchange rates) Capacity cuts
Public and private sectors cooperation Travel
closer to home, including domestic travel
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The domestic hotel market in Russia
International guests 4 million in 2007 (18)
Domestic guests 18 million in 2007 (82)
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New Challenges
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Crisis paradox it underlies structural
weaknesses and changes

• sustainability
• aging stock and regeneration
• human resources and cost structure
• need for new product development
• insufficient market differentiation and
  segmentation
• need for more and more effective marketing and
  promotion
• cooperation and coordination

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New consumer

• from producers to consumers from a sellers to a
  buyers market
• mature, experienced and hiper-informed that
  know what they want and what they can get
• segmentation
• internet

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E-marketing
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in every step of the way
web 2.0
increased competition
local suppliers access the global market
flexibility
see and try
insights on the consumer (better than Focus
Groups)
interaction
niches
power to the consumer
transparency
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Long term Prospects
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Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision
forecast World
1.6 bn
1.0 bn
924 mn
536 mn
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Thank you very much for your attention!
email scarvao_at_unwto.org
www.unwto.org