ViewPoint: A Next NextGeneration Decision System Mike Kalb

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ViewPointA Next Next-Generation Decision
System Mike Kalb

• Global Science Technology, Inc.
• 7855 Walker Drive, Suite 200Greenbelt, MD 20770
  [phone]
• kalb_at_gst.com

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GEOSS Decision Support - Steps

• Consolidation
• GOES, POES, DMSP ?GOES-R, NPOESS
• Technologies established, Candidate architectures
  in hand
• Last of the old generation observing systems
• A simplistic system observing modes largely
  set at factory
• A constraint on info available for decision
  support
• Integration / Interoperability
• International Coordination of Assets
• IEOS ? GEOSS
• Maximizing for decision support
• Ensure GEOSS design can accommodate evolution of
  technology and infrastructure over the next 30
  years

Satellite in situ observing locations,
schedules, strategies fixed without regard to
need. Current technologies do not allow
otherwise, but project 25 50 years ahead to
see what will be possible.
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Supporting Dynamic / Interactive Decision Making

• The most important decisions often require
  dialogue two-way interaction
• Hazard assessment
• Emergency management
• Severe weather forecasting
• Enable user access and interactivity with
  observing system

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Typical Decision Support System
Data
Decision Maker
Observing System
Tools
Assimilation
Context
Modeling Systems
Custom Workstation called the Decision Support
System
One-Way Interaction
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Dynamic Decision System
Data
Dynamic Sensor Web
Observing System
Decision Maker
Tools Services
Requests
Assimilation
Feedback
Scheduling
Context
Many parts of system are engaged in decision
process
Modeling Systems
Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems
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Example A Slice through IEOS / GEOSS Weather
Forecast System Framework

• Advanced
• Capabilities
• Dynamic feedback between model and observing
  systems
• Model Directed Observing
• Automated Adaptive Targeted Observing
• Sensor Web Concepts
• Integrated Global Observing System
• Global Real-time Communications
• Coordinated Space-Ground Observing
• Coordinated Space-Space Observing
• Intelligent Autonomous Systems
• Onboard Image Analysis and Processing
• Advanced Decision Support Tools

Two-way Interactive Sensor Web Forecast
Modeling System Framework
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Who / What is a decision maker ?

• Human as decision maker
• Model as decision maker
• Observing system as decision maker
• Where and how decisions are made has implications
  for Interfaces (standards, protocols)
• Human to observing system and assets
• Human to model
• Model to model
• Model to observing system asset
• Observing system asset to asset

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Conclusion

• GEOSS is a necessary, but small step in right
  direction toward next-generation functionality
  that will be essential to the type of decision
  making that justifies the investment
• Will GEOSS vision accommodate new definitions and
  expectations of decision support functionality
  as technology and infrastructure evolve over next
  20 50 years ?
• Cant decide now what data or information will be
  most important for every decision maker or every
  application domain (now or 50 years from now),
  but you can decide on desired functionalities of
  decision support system

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Technology Maturity Requirements

• Real-time global communications infrastructure
• Interoperable Space Ground communication
  standards,
• User Interactivity with Observing System
• Addressable commandable observing platforms and
  sensors (space and in situ)
• Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems (Model
  driven observing system feedbacks)
• Standards and protocols (Open, International
  standards)
• Command Control Systems
• Data and metadata
• Platform-level intelligence processing
• Sensor web Intelligent observing systems (self
  aware, self-directed mission driven
  reconfigurability)

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Decision Support Tools

• Example
• Ensemble Modeling and Analysis used for
• Targeted Observations (Model derived, automated)
• Atmospheric (or system) state analysis and
  assimilation
• Determination of best forecast uncertainty