Keeping up with the neighbours

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Keeping up with the neighbours Submarine fleets
in the Asia-Pacific and Australias
response Andrew Davies, Director Operations
Capability Program, Australian Strategic Policy
Institute
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OVERVIEW

• Asia-Pacific submarine plans platforms and
  weapons
• Reasons for the proliferation of submarines
• Responses to the submarine population explosion
• Australias submarine fleet now and the future

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Asia-Pac submarines

• There are several reasons for the proliferation
  of submarines in
• the Asia-Pacific region
• General military development resulting from
  economic strength
• Strategic competition between established and
  rising powers
• Local arms competitions
• Canny marketing

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Asia-Pac submarines

• Differing approaches to submarine acquisition
  reflects the industrial,economic and strategic
  weight of the owner countries.
• Would-be major powers India and China have
  nuclear submarine programs (and Russia is
  rebuilding) as well as buying OTS
• Middle powers Japan, ROK and Australia build
  large conventional boats
• Smaller powers buy European boats OTS

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Asia-Pac submarines

• Depending on the strategic alignment of
  countries, their submarine weaponstend to follow
  either US or Russian philosophies.
• Countries aligned with the US deploy subsonic
  ASMs in the Harpoon/Exocet class
• India, China and Russia are acquiring supersonic
  sea skimming cruise missiles

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PLA(N)

• Partly an asymmetric response to USN power and
  partly accompanying amajor buildup of military
  power. Several active programs
• SSBNs to provide a nuclear second strike option
• SSNs for long range blue water operations and
  hunter/killer ops
• A revamped diesel-electric fleet that could
  operate in littoral environments and could
  create real problems in the Taiwan Strait
• An ASW capability

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Response to submarines

• ASW must become a higher priority for western
  navies, especially against diesel-electric
  submarines
• Intelligence on indigenous capabilities
  required
• Discussions between USN and PLA(N) regarding
  protocols post USS Kittyhawk (and EP-3)
  incidents
• Smaller navies would be well advised to develop
  protocols to avoid incidents/collisions in
  narrow waterways.

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Australias submarine fleet now and the future

Collins class 6 SSGs _at_ 3,300 tonnes
submerged Size driven by ranges
required ability to maintain 2 boats on station
at 2,500 nm was key driver Built by Australian
Submarine Corporation based on Kockums design
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Australias submarine fleet now and the future

Many well publicised project issues -
noise - combat system - leaks - diesels -
propellers
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Australias submarine fleet now and the future

The COLLINS has now matured into a reliable
platform - Same combat system as the USN
Virginia class (Raytheon AN/BYG-1 Combat
Control System) - Mk 48 ADCAP torpedo and
Harpoon ASM - Some hulls fitted for SF
operations Issues with manning levels and some
questions about availability.
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Australias submarine fleet now and the future

Planning for the submarine beyond Collins has
just begun (formally) Big picture
considerations Geography has not changed
distances are large Numbers matter is six
boats enough for defensive and offensive
ops? Two new LHDs to join RAN in 2013-2015 Cost
of Australian-built solution vs MOTS (ASC to
build almost given)
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Australias submarine fleet now and the future

• Design considerations
• Range and endurance calls for 2 boats on
  station at 3,500nm
• gt 4,000 tonne boat (!)
• A nuclear boat is most unlikely
• Weapons payload
• AIP
• UUVs
• ASC will require assistance to develop these
  boats

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Questions?