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HISTORY OF GEOSTATISTICS - PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE

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Title: HISTORY OF GEOSTATISTICS - PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE


1
HISTORY OF GEOSTATISTICS - PAST, PRESENT AND
FUTURE
  • Donald E. Myers
  • University of Arizona
  • http//www.u.arizona.edu/donaldm

2
OUTLINE
  • IAMG
  • PROBLEMS/OBJECTIVES
  • WHAT WAS USED BEFORE
  • MATHERON, GANDIN and MATERN
  • COMPUTING
  • OTHER PEOPLE
  • WHERE IS IT GOING?
  • CONFERENCES
  • SOME BOOKS

3
IAMG
  • www.iamg.org
  • Formed in Prague in 1968
  • Earth science in broad sense
  • Celebrated 25th anniversary in Prague
  • Publishes three journals
  • Annual conferences
  • Five previous Distinguished Lecturers

4
PROBLEMS/OBJECTIVES -I
  • Given data for some characteristic at multiple
    locations in space, predict/estimate value at
    non-data location
  • Local or global?
  • Single value or probability distribution?
  • Predict/estimate average over an area or volume
  • Provide some measure of uncertainty or reliability

5
PROBLEMS/OBJECTIVES -II
  • Applications in
  • Mining
  • Hydrology
  • Petroleum
  • Yarus-Chambers Armchair overview.pdf
  • Petroleum geostatistics.pdf
  • Petroleum geostatistics Part 2.pdf
  • Soil Science
  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology

6
PROBLEMS/OBECTIVES -III
  • Environmental monitoring and assessment
  • Agronomy
  • Atmospheric Sciences
  • Any discipline with spatial data
  • Complications with spatial data
  • Often expensive to collect and/or difficult
  • Point data vs non-point data
  • Hard data vs soft data

7
GEOSTATISTICS -I
  • Data, non-random sample from one realization of a
    random function
  • Model based, not design based
  • Values at two close locations are more similar
    than for two locations far apart?
  • Spatial correlation
  • Variogram, covariance function
  • Must be estimated/fitted
  • Functions of distance direction
  • Variogram interpretation and modeling.pdf

8
GEODSTATISTICS -II
  • Incorporates information about proximity of each
    data location to every other data location
  • Incorporates information about proximity of each
    data location to estimation point
  • Estimator is a weighted linear combination of
    data values
  • Weights do not directly depend on the data values

9
WHAT WAS USED BEFORE -I?
  • Voronoi diagrams, Thiessen polygons, (used by
    Descartes in 1600s but not named until much
    later)
  • Nearest neighbor, Polygonal method
  • Strictly geometric
  • Inverse Distance Weighting
  • Weighted linear combination, weights inversely
    proportional to distance from data location to
    estimation point

10
WHAT WAS USED BEFORE-II?
  • Advantages/disadvantages Nearest Neighbor
  • Does not incorporate characteristics of data
  • Very dependent on the pattern of data locations
  • Advantages/disadvantages Inverse Distance
    Weighting
  • Does not incorporate characteristics of data
  • Does not incorporate pattern of data locations
  • Very dependent on pattern of data locations
  • Petroleum geostatistics vs deterministic
    methods.pdf

11
WHAT WAS USED BEFORE-III?
  • Spline (1-D drafting tool)
  • None of the above directly address
  • Estimating spatial averages
  • Provide measures of uncertainty
  • None of the above generate alternative scenarios,
    i.e., simulation
  • Useful in planning
  • Possible alternative to estimation/prediction

12
Bertil Matern
  • 1917-
  • Student of Harald Cramer
  • Professor of Mathematical Statistics in Forestry
  • Spatial Variation- 1960 (Swedish)
  • Applications to forestry
  • Importance of spatial dependence and variation
    noted as early as 1947
  • Published in English in 1986

13
Lev Gandin
  • 1921-1927
  • Born in Lenningrad
  • Musician, Chess player or Mathematician?
  • USSR Main Geophysical Lab and Lenningrad
    Hydrometeorological Institute 1943-1981
  • Objective Analysis of Meteorological Fields
    (1963)- (Russian)
  • Translated into English 1965
  • Lost position in 1981
  • Nat. Centers for Envir. Prediction1987
  • Lev Gandin, 1921-1997.pdf

14
Georges Matheron - I
  • 1930-2000
  • Matheron obituary.pdf
  • Traité de Géostatistique appliquée, tome 1
    (1962), tome 2 (1963). Paris Editions Technip.
  • Centre de Geostatistiques et Morphologie
    Mathematiques, Ecole des Mines de Paris
    (Fontainebleau)

15
Georges Matheron -II
  • The theory of regionalized variables and its
    applications. Paris School of Mines publication,
    (1971)
  • The intrinsic random functions and their
    applications. Adv Appl Prob 5 (1973)439-68.
  • Random Sets and Integral Geometry. J. Wiley.
    (1975)

16
Georges Matheron - III
  • Also did fundamental work on flows in porous
    media
  • Assembled group of students and researchers
  • Strong ties with mining industry, petroleum
    industry
  • Hydrology research group at Fontainebleau

17
Georges Matheron -IV
  • Was acquainted with Matern and Gandin and their
    work
  • Influenced by work of D. Krige (South Africa)
  • Mathematical Morphology group became separate

18
The Big Names
  • Gandin was and is very well known in climatology,
    perhaps less so outside of that field
  • Matern was and is well known in forestry and
    later perhaps in statistics
  • Matheron was not as well known in statistics
    originally but ideas were spread by his students
    and contacts in industry

19
COMPUTING -I
  • The works of Matheron, Gandin and Matern all had
    their origins in earlier work by Kolmogorov,
    Wiener, etc but!
  • To actually use the ideas and results required
    extensive computing, the timing was right
  • Mainframe computers- late 1940s, early 1950s
    (Illiac, prototype for computer at Aberdeen
    Proving Grounds, 1 K random access memory)
  • http//www.cs.uiuc.edu/about/history.php

20
COMPUTING -II
  • VAX 11/780 1978(CERN)
  • www.webmythology.com/VAXhistory.htm
  • IBM PC 1981
  • inventors.about.com/library/weekly/aa031599.htm
  • 4.77 mhz, 16 k memory, no hard disk
  • www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/exhibits/pc/pc_1.html
  • www.old-computers.com/museum/computer.asp?c274

21
COMPUTING -III
  • Geostatistics Software
  • 1970s BLUEPACK (Fontainebleau)
  • 1988 GEOEAS (EPA) for DOS on PC
  • Geostatistics tutorial using GeoEAS.pdf
  • 1992 GSLIB Fortran codes
  • 1996 VARIOWIN (Windows version of Vario and
    PreVar)
  • 1990s ISATIS (workstation software,
    Fontainebleau, GeoVariances)

22
COMPUTING -IV
  • geostatistics add-on for ArcGIS
  • Spatial Analyst in S-Plus
  • gstat, geoR packages in R
  • Overview gstat and geoR.pdf
  • gstat tutorial.pdf
  • Proc in SAS
  • SGems
  • www.ai-geostats.org/index.php?id107
  • More complete list including various commercial
    software packages

23
OTHER PEOPLE -I
  • Michel David
  • Obituary -Mathematical Geology 37 (2005) 449-450
  • Michel David obituary.pdf
  • Started program at the Ecole Polytechnique-Montrea
    l, brought over from France
  • Geostatistical Ore Reserve Estimation (1977)
  • Short courses and consulting

24
OTHER PEOPLE -II
  • Andre Journel
  • Brought over from Fontainebleau to start program
    at Stanford (supported by Fluor)
  • Mining Geostatistics (1978) with Ch. Huibregts
  • GSLIB (1992) with C.. Deutsch
  • Short courses, consulting
  • Links to industry

25
OTHER PEOPLE -III
  • John Davis
  • Formerly head of the Mathematical Geology group
    at the Kansas Geological Survey
  • Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology (1973)
  • One of founders of IAMG
  • First IAMG Distinguished Lecturer
  • Daniel Merriam
  • One of the founders of IAMG
  • Hosted Matheron on several occasions

26
OTHER PEOPLE -IV
  • Krige, Danie G. 1919-
  • "A statistical approach to some basic mine
    valuation problems on the Witwatersrand". J. of
    the Chem., Metal. and Mining Soc. of South Africa
    52 (1951) 119-139. 
  • Tribute to Krige.pdf
  • Richard Webster
  • Rothamstead Research Center (UK)
  • Four seminal articles about applications in soil
    science, 1979-1980
  • Geostatistics for Environmental Scientists (2001)
    with M. Oliver
  • Noel Cressie
  • Statistics for Spatial Data (1993)
  • Brian Ripley
  • Spatial Statistics
  • Contributor to R

27
WHERE IS IT GOING?
  • Multivariate methods
  • Simulation
  • Space-time modeling
  • Multi-point modeling
  • New(er) applications
  • Ecology
  • Image Analysis
  • Connections with other methods

28
CONFERENCES -1
  • Initially geostatistics had many of its own
    conferences (with proceedings)
  • NATO ASI, Rome 1975
  • NATO ASI, Lake Tahoe 1983
  • NATO ASI, Il Ciocco (Italy) 1987
  • Avignon, Fr. 1988
  • Troia , Portugal 1992
  • Wollongong, Australia 1996

29
CONFERENCES -II
  • South Africa 2000
  • Banff, Canada 2004
  • Santiago, Chile 2008
  • Geostatistics for the Next Century Montreal 1993
  • Geostatistics and the Environment conferences
    (with proceedings)
  • GEOENV I 1996
  • GEOENV II Valencia 1998

30
CONFERENCES -III
  • GEOENV III Avignon 1999
  • GEOENV IV Barcelona 2002
  • GEOENV V 2005
  • GEOENV VI 2006 Rhodes, Greece
  • GEOENV VII 2008 Southhampton, UK

31
SOME OTHER BOOKS -I
  • An Intro. To Applied Geostatistics, E.
    Issaks and M. Srivastav
  • Geostatistics Modeling Spatial Uncertainty,
    Jean-Paul Chilès and Pierre Delfiner
  • Geostatistics for Natural Resources Evaluation,
    P. Goovaerts
  • Multivariate Geostatistics, H. Wackernagel
  • Geostatistics and Petroleum Geology, M Hohn
  • Model Based Geostatistics, Peter J. Diggle and
    Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro

32
SOME OTHERBOOKS -II
  • Stochastic Modeling and Geostatistics I
    Principles, Methods and Case Studies, J. Yarus
    and R. Chambers, AAPG
  • Stochastic Modeling and Geostatistics II
    Principles, Methods and Case Studies, T.C.
    Coburn, AAPG
  • Interpolation of Spatial Data Some theory for
    kriging, M. Stein

33
IAMG
http//www.iamg.org
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