Building a Better SmartInit Island Style

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Building a Better SmartInitIsland Style

• Robert Ballard
• WFO Honolulu
• Marine/Tropical IFPS Methodology Workshop April
  2004

2
Identify the Problem

• Default SmartInit not resolving significant
  tropical synoptic features
• Models can resolve synoptic scale features
• Find a way to build forecaster knowledge and
  experience into SmartInit
• Limited MOS data, MOS points and complex terrain

3
Our Goals

• Looking for a SmartInit that will approximate the
  forecasters expectation given a particular model
  solution
• Correctly resolve synoptic scale features as
  forecast by the models
• Give forecaster more time to deal with
  local/island effects.
• Want to minimize inconsistencies between POP, Sky
  and Weather grids
• Needs to work on all models (GFS, UKMET, ECMWF,
  ETA, NOGAPS, RSM)

4
The Scenario
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Default GFS SmartInit POPs
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HFO GFS SmartInit POPs
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Adjustments to POP SmartInit

• Uses low to mid level RH fields to calculate an
  index based upon moisture amounts and depth
• Incorporates significant model vertical motion as
  an adjustment to the index
• POP calculated from index based on empirical
  study and forecaster input from Summer 03 to
  Winter 04

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Default GFS SmartInit Weather
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HFO GFS SmartInit Weather
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Adjustments to Wx SmartInit

• Assigns a coverage based only on POPs
• All precipitation assumed to be convective
  (e.g. RW not R)
• Makes a check for heavy precip (RW) and thunder
  based upon CAPE, K-Index

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Default GFS SmartInit Winds
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HFO GFS SmartInit Winds
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Adjustments to Winds SmartInit

• Uses FHAG10 (10m wind) instead of BL030 field
• Incorporates upper elevation winds at heights
  above 800 mb using model wind fields
• Decreases winds over lower elevations on land to
  account for frictional effects
• Weakness Channeling effects not accounted for
  and must be added by the forecaster

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Future Enhancements Ideas

• More sophisticated checks for
• Heavy precip and/or thunderstorms
• Severe thunderstorms
• Snow and snow level
• Adding in sea/land breeze effects for light winds
• Verification of HFO SmartInits