Problem Solving

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Problem Solving
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Objectives

• Learn how to state and clarify a problem
• Develop a procedure for problem solving
• Learn the traps
• in problem solving

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Whats typical?
Self-Doubt
Over Confidence
Procrastination
Flip-flops
Desperation!
WRONG!
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Six Criteria for Effective Decisions

• Focuses on what is important
• Logical and consistent
• Acknowledges objective and subjective factors,
  blends analytical and intuitive thinking
• Does not gather too much information
• Tries to reach consensus
• Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible

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Problem Solving Model
P OACT
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bjectives
lternatives
onsequences
radeoffs
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Additional Factors

• Risk
• Uncertainty
• Linked decisions

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Problem Solving Steps

• State the problem carefully
• Acknowledge complexities
• Avoid assumptions and prejudices
• Specify the objectives
• Create imaginative alternatives
• Understand the consequences of the alternative
• Grapple with your tradeoffscont

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Problem Solving Steps, cont

• Clarify uncertainties
• Think about your risk tolerance and the risks of
  each alternative
• Consider linked decisions
• Each alternative opens or closes future options

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Whats the best solution?
A good solution to a well-posed problem.
Is a almost always a smarter choice than..
An excellent solution to a poorly posed problem
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Define the Problem

• What triggers the problem?
• State the problem
• Question the constraints of the problem
• statement
• Identify the essential elements
• How does this impact other decisions?
• What is the scope of the problem?
• Gain insights from others
• Restate problem, if necessary

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What Objectives Do

• Help determine what information to seek
• Explain your choices to others
• Determine the importance of, time and effort
  devoted to the problem

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How to identify objectives

• Write down the concerns you hope to address
• Wish list
• Worst possible outcome
• Impact on others
• Insights from others
• Whats a good alternative but unfeasible?
• What is bad about the worst alternatives?

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How to identify objectives

• Convert the concerns into succinct objectives
• Separate the ends from the means
• Clarify what you mean by each objective
• Test your objectives

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Alternatives

• Use your objects and ask HOW?
• Challenge constraints to your alternatives
• Set high aspirations
• Think through your alternatives before consulting
  others
• Learn from past experience
• Then ask others for suggestions

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How to generate alternatives

• Brainstorming
• Just list alternatives, dont evaluate
• Never stop looking for alternatives
• Look for win-win alternatives
• Stop when youve thought through alternatives
• One solution would satisfy you
• But still have a range of alternatives

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Consequences

• List the consequences of each alternative
• Assess the future consequences of each
  alternative
• Create a free-form description of the
  consequences
• Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives
• Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives
  into a table .

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Consequences

• Try to develop a common scale to measure
  consequences
• Use qualitative and quantitative data
• Use experts if necessary
• Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of
  precision

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Tradeoffs

• Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by
  others
• Then swaps between alternatives using measures
• Value incremental improvements
• Make consistent tradeoffs

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Uncertainties

• What are the key uncertainties?
• What are the possible outcomes of these
  uncertainties?
• What are the changes of the outcomes, given
  these uncertainties?
• What are the consequences of each outcome?.

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Uncertainties

• Identify the key uncertainties
• Define the possible outcomes
• Assign chance of occurrence of each outcome
• Clarify consequences using quantitative and
  qualitative measures
• Create a decision tree

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Risk Tolerance

• How much risk do you want to handle?
• How much are others affected by your decision?
• Quantify the risks, if possible
• Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish
  optimism
• Dont avoid making risky decisions just because
  they are complex

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How to lessen risk

• Seek risk reducing information
• Diversify the risk
• Hedge the risk
• Insure against the risk

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Linked decisions

• Choose options that leave future flexibility
  intact
• Get timing right on decision tree
• Describe the consequences at the end points

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Psychological Traps

• Working on the wrong problem
• Failing to identify key objectives
• Failing to develop a range of good, creative
  alternatives
• Overlooking crucial consequences of your
  alternatives
• Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs
• Disregarding uncertainty.

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Traps, cont

• Failing to account for risk intolerance
• Failing to plan ahead when decisions are linked
  over time...

So, tell me some specifics on these traps...
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Common Traps

• Anchoring trap
• Status Quo Trap
• Sunk Cost Trap
• Confirming Evidence Trap
• Framing Trap

• Overconfidence Trap
• Recallability Trap
• Base Rate Trap
• Prudence Trap
• Random Events

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Review

• A model for problem solving
• The actions in each of the steps
• Common Traps in problem solving