Empirical Analysis of Parole Violations: California

1
Empirical Analysis of Parole Violations
California

• Conference on Back-end Sentencing and Technical
  Parole Violations
• Stanford University
• November 4, 2006

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How are parolees returned to prison?
Parole violations
Prison returns
Local Court Convictions
Board Returns
Criminal
Noncriminal
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Research Questions

• What factors predict parole violations and
  revocations?
• How are cases sorted to the courts and the
  parole board?
• Where does the discretion lie in decision-making
  about violations and revocations?

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NIJ California Parole Violation Study

• 261,883 Parolees Observed Weekly for 2003-2004
• 344,183 Violations
• 155,562 Returns to Prison
• Individual, Contextual, and Institutional Factors

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Violation Risks

• 75 of parolees who have been released 6 or more
  times violate within 200 days of freedom
• Churners make up about 10 of the California
  parolee population
• 45 of first releases have violated within the
  first 800 days

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How do parole returns impact prisons?
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Board Returns do not Comprise a Large Share of
the Prison Population
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Consequences

• Back-end sentences are not the major contributor
  to the current population crisis
• They do produce other negative consequences
• Transaction Costs
• Increase criminogenic propensities

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Discretion lies mostly with the Parole Board
76
74
86
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Criminal Returns Increased Through the 1990s
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Different Offenses are Routed Through the Board
and Courts
12
Most Criminal Returns are for the Least Serious
Violations
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Many Serious Offenses go through the Board
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Return Times are Much Shorter for Board Returns
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Summary

• Churning
• Population Crisis
• Increased Transaction Costs and Enhanced
  Criminogenic Propensities
• Seriousness
• Board Discretion
• Tripartite Focus Agents, Board, and DAs

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Contact information

• Ryken Grattet, Ph.D.
• Department of Sociology
• University of California
• Davis, California 95616
• Tel [phone]
• E-mail jenness_at_uci.edu

Joan Petersilia, Ph.D. Department of
Criminology, Law Society University of
California Irvine, California 92697-7080 Tel
[phone] E-mail petersilia_at_stevet.edu