The Approaches of Benchmarking QGDP to AGDP in China

1
The Approaches of Benchmarking QGDP to
AGDP in China

• Jin Hong

NBS
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Content
NBS

• Condition of Data of QGDP in China
• The Choice of the Approaches of Benchmarking
• The Process of Benchmarking QGDP to AGDP
• Data comparison between primal data and
  benchmarked data
• The Publication of Benchmarked data

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Condition of Data of QGDP in China
NBS

• 1. Accumulative approach is only used to
  quarterly accounting
• Q1
• Q1-2
• Q1-3
• Q1-4

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Condition of Data of QGDP in China
NBS
2. Coverage of accounts only involves eight
industries

• Agriculture
• Industry
• Construction Transport,PostTelecommunication
  Services
• Wholesale retail trade and catering
  services
• Finance insurance
• Real estate
• Other services

the primary industry
the secondary industry
the tertiary industry
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Condition of Data of QGDP in China
NBS

• 3.There is not any adjustment for quarterly data
  after released
• Quarterly data were released in the fifteenth day
  after corresponding quarter.
• Not be verified in the basis of more detailed
  data .
• Not be benchmarked to annual data .
• No seasonal adjustment.

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The Choice of the Approaches of Benchmarking
NBS

• Pro-rata technique breaks in series(the step
  problem)
• Pro-rata Denton method no breaks in series
• Model method intricacy

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The Choice of the Approaches of Benchmarking
NBS

• pro-rata technique NBS
• Accumulative account
• The first time
• Pro-rata Denton method has be selected before the
  pro-rata technique is selected finally

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The Process of Benchmarking
NBS

• The basic thought
• At first, added-value at current prices of
  the above eight industries are benchmarked
  respectively, and the same to added-value at
  constant prices, then GDP and added-value of the
  three industries are the total added-value of
  industries after benchmarked.

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The Process of Benchmarking
NBS

• 1. Transforming accumulative data to discrete
  quarterly data
• Quarterly time series of data of added-value
  at current prices for the eight industries.
• Quarterly time series of data of added-value
  at constant prices for the eight industries.

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The Process of Benchmarking
NBS

• 2. Pre-adjustment
• Eliminating the inconsistency between primal time
  series
• Inconsistency -primal growth rate series
• -series of growth rate over
  the previous year calculated by added-value
• Adjustment fundament To regard quarterly
  added-value of 2001 as the benchmark level, and
  then adjustment for data of discrete quarterly
  added-value of past years is made according to
  growth rate at the condition of keeping time
  series of growth rate in immovability.

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The Process of Benchmarking
NBS

• 2. Pre-adjustment
• Ensuring the reasonability of proportion of
  quarterly added-value

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The Process of Benchmarking
NBS

• 2. Pre-adjustment
• a)Construction (chart 1)

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The Process of Benchmarking
NBS

• 2. Pre-adjustment
• b)Transport, storage, post and
  telecommunication services (see chart 2)

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The Process of Benchmarking
NBS

• 3. Using the pro-rata technique to benchmark QGDP
  to AGDP

is the data of quarter q of year t after
benchmarked
is the benchmark data of t year
is the data of quarter q of year t before
benchmarked.
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The Process of Benchmarking
NBS

• 4. Transforming quarterly benchmarked data into
  accumulative data

• Q1 Q1
• Q1Q2 Q1-2
• Q1Q2Q3 Q1-3
• Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1-4

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The Process of Benchmarking
NBS

• 5. Calculating GDP and added-value of the three
  industries

Transport,PostTelecommunication Wholesale
Retail Trade Catering Finance Insurance
Real estate Other services
Primary Industry

Agriculture

• Industry
• Construction

Secondary Industry
Tertiary Industry
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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• Reasons of resulting in the difference between
  primal data and benchmarked data
• extent of pre-adjustment
• The difference between annual data as the
  benchmark level and accumulative data of
  corresponding quarters

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 1. Comparison for added-value at current prices
• a. Comparison for GDP at current prices (chart 3)

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 1. Comparison for added-value at current prices
• b. Comparison for added-value at current prices
  of agriculture (chart 4)

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 1. Comparison for added-value at current prices
• c.Current prices of industry (chart 5)

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 1. Comparison for added-value at current prices
• d. Current prices of construction (chart 6)

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 1. Comparison for added-value at current prices
• e. Current prices of transport, storage, post and
  telecommunication services (chart 7)

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 1. Comparison for added-value at current prices
• f. Current prices of wholesale and retail trade
  catering services (chart 8)

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 1. Comparison for added-value at current prices
• g. Current prices of finance and insurance (chart
  9)

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 1. Comparison for added-value at current prices
• h. Current prices of real estate (chart 10)

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 1. Comparison for added-value at current prices
• i. Current prices of other services (table 11
  chart 11)

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 2.Comparison for growth rate at constant prices
• GDP

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 2.Comparison for growth rate at constant prices
• Agriculture

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 2.Comparison for growth rate at constant prices
• Industry

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 2.Comparison for growth rate at constant prices
• Construction

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 2.Comparison for growth rate at constant prices
• Transport, storage, post and telecommunication
  services

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 2.Comparison for growth rate at constant prices
• Wholesale retail trade catering services

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 2.Comparison for growth rate at constant prices
• Finance and insurance

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 2.Comparison for growth rate at constant prices
• Real estate

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Comparison between primal data and benchmarked
data
NBS

• 2.Comparison for growth rate at constant prices
• Other services

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The Publication of Benchmarked data
NBS
In 2003, NBS released data of quarterly
accounts after benchmarked according to finally
verified annual data, and published Historical
Data of China Quarterly GDP Accounts from 1992 to
2001. For the future, quarterly data will be
benchmarked successively after annual data are
verified finally, and benchmarked data will be
published in publication.