Mr Keith Miller

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ADWEC (Winter 2007 / 2008)Electricity Water
DemandForecasts 2008 - 2030
Mr Keith Miller Director of Planning Studies
Directorate
Abu Dhabi Water and Electricity Company(ADWEC)
MEED Middle East Power Water Conference
200817th - 18th March 2008Beach Rotana Hotel,
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Telephone [phone] Fax 971 (2)
642 5773keithmiller_at_adwec.ae
www.adwec.ae
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Presentation Overview

• Purpose of presentation
• Present ADWECs 2008 - 2030 demand forecasts
  The NEW Demand Forecasts were completed in March
  2008.
• Higher demand creates a need for more new IWPP
  capacity.
• ADWEC must purchase additional IWPP capacity to
  satisfy demand increases.
• Outline ADWECs potential new capacity
  requirements
• to the IWPP developers / EPC contractors /
  lenders at todays conference.
• Urban Planning Councils (UPC) Plan Abu Dhabi
  2030
• UPCs Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 was released in
  September 2007.
• Included in ADWECs Base Demand Forecasts for
  the very first time. Time horizon of ADWECs
  forecast extended to 2030 to be consistent with
  UPC.

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ADWEC and Law Number 2 of 1998

• Within the Emirate of Abu Dhabi ADWEC is the
  Single Buyer and Seller of electricity and water.
  
• ADWEC is responsible inter alia for
• Electricity Water Demand Forecasting.
• Electricity Water Capacity Planning.
• Contracting of new IWPP capacity and BST
  preparation.
• Contracting for gas / fuel supply.
• Financial Settlement
• ADWECs legal Demand Forecasting and Capacity
  Planning
• duties are fulfilled via annual
• Electricity Water Demand Forecasts.
• Statement of Future Capacity Requirements.

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Article 30 of Law Number 2 of 1998

• Also requires ADWEC to
• ensure that, at all times, all reasonable
  demands for water and electricity in the Emirate
  are satisfied.
• To satisfy Law Number 2s requirements ADWEC
  preparesannual forecasts of electricity and
  water demand.
• ADWECs Demand Forecasts are used to prepare
• ADWEC Statement of Future Capacity Requirements
• TRANSCO 5 Year Planning Statement
• Bulk Supply Tariff, ADWEA Budget and Other
  Planning.

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Implementation Schedules
IWPPs require up to 4 years from decision to
proceed to completion
Years
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ADWEC Electricity Map
Ras Al Khaimah
Khowr Khawer
Umm Al Quwain
641 MW
Ajman
4,395 MW
RAK
Fujairah
FEWA Network
EMAL 2,220 MW (2010)
Tawian
Qidfa
2,435 MW
Saja
Dhaid
To Dubai (ENG interconnection)
H Station Al Aweer
Sharjah
1,150 MW
1,150 MW (2010)
Dubai
250 MW (2008) 400 MW (2010)
Taweelah
Samha
Bahia
900 1,150 MW (2010)
Hayer
1,615 MW
ADPS
Delma
Sweihan
Airport
Shahama
186 MW
Al Oha/Al Foa
UAN
E48
520 MW
X
X
Dahma
256 MW
Shamkha
Jebel Dhanna
Dhabiya (ADCO Load)
GIC
To Al Wassit (GCC interconnection)
Wathba
Ramah
Zakher
Khazna
To Salwa (GCC interconnection)
Ruweis
X
Takreer (ADNOC)
X
Mirfa
Al Ain
Sila
Mussaffah
Shuweihat
Central
Salamat
Tarif
Sanaiya
Rumaitha (ADCO Load)
Mazyad
Al Ain SW
9,637 MW
Arad
OGD III (ADCO Load)
Bab (ADCO Load)
(April 2009)
Ghayathi
X
Madinat Zayed
Abu Dhabi
109 MW
Wagan
Bu Hasa (ADCO Load)
Existing 400kV circuits Existing 220kV
circuits Existing 132kV circuits Power
Station Sub-Station ADNOC Oil Gas Plant EMAL
Smelter Under Construction Planned Planned line
cut
Asab (ADCO Load)
Umm El Oush
AGD II (ADCO Load)
Hameem/Hamim (ADCO Load)
Liwa West (Eradah)
Liwa
TOTAL (GROSS MW)
X
Includes planned extensions as of 31/12/2008
along with ADNOC, ENG, GCC EMAL
interconnections.
February 25, 2008
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ADWEC Water Map
Ras Al Khaimah
102 MGD
Dahan As Sur
Fujairah
Qidfa
297 MGD
145 MGD
Sharjah
Jebel Ali
Hill Top
Dubai
S Shoib
Taweelah
Jurf
Samih
Al-Maha
101 MGD
39 MGD
ADPS
Unit III
Ajban
TAP OFF 12
Tanks
UAN
Lulu Island
Sweihan
Airport
Adla
Units I II
Unit IV
Wathba
Abu Al Abyad
Mussaffah
Shoubaisi
Mirfa
Ramah
Shuweihat
Sila
Al-Saad
Al Ain
Tarif
SIPS
Abu Dhabi
683 MGD
PS1
1600 mm 1400 mm 1200 mm 1000 mm 900 mm 800 mm 600
mm 500 mm Pumping Station (PS) Desalination
Plant Proposed PS Under Construction / Proposed
Ghayathi
PS2
Madinat Zayed
Wagan
Liwa
TOTAL
Includes planned extensions as of 31/12/2008,
excluding isolated plants and Al Ain network.
February 21, 2008
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ADWEC Planning Process
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ADWEC Planning Overview
Demand Forecast(including losses auxiliary
consumption)

Add Reserve Margin(Electricity GSS LOLE 0.1 /
Water DSS 1 day in 50 years)
Required Capacity Forecast
Versus
Existing / Planned / Under Construction Capacity
New Capacity Requirements
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MEED March 2007 Conference
ADWEC Base Electricity Demand Forecast
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ADWEC Demand Forecasting Process
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Key Recent Demand Developments
1. Release of UPCs Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 in
September 2007. 2. UPCs Plan Abu Dhabi 2030
included in ADWECs BaseDemand Forecasts for the
first time. 3. Releasing of surplus oil
revenues for major infrastructuredevelopments
and industrial expansion (e.g. KPIZ / Zonescorp).
4. Khalifa Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ)
included in forecast for first time. 5. Changes
in land ownership laws during 2005. Resulted in
the creation of residential / commercial Mega
Projects Al Reem Island, Al Raha Beach,
Saadiyat Island, Yas Island etc.
Resulting Development Boom will require
significant quantities of electricity and water
capacity over and above the normal developments
assumed in ADWECs pre-2005 demand forecasts.
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ADWEC Electricity and Water Demand Forecasting
Regions
2006 peak per capita consumptions

• Electricity 3 kW per capita
• Water 86 gallons per capita

Abu Dhabi Region
Al Ain Region
Western Region
The sum of regional peaks is not equal to the
system peak because of timing differences.
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ADWEC Demand Forecasting Process
Inputs
ADWEC Electricity WaterDemand Forecasts
Population Inputs1. Urban Planning Council
(UPC) 2. Mega Projects Population Forecasts 3.
2005 Census 4. Government Organisations 5. ADWEC
Historical Population Forecasts
Residential / Commercial
Industrial Inputs 1. Zonescorp 2. ADBIC 3.
Khalifa Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ) 4. ADNOC /
GASCO / ADCO etc
Industrial Sector
ADWEA Company Demand Forecasts1. AADC 2.
ADDC 3. TRANSCO (e.g. transmission losses)4.
ADWEC Auxiliary Consumption
All Sectors Transmission Code
Other Demand Forecasts / Inputs 1. Mega
Projects Developers Forecasts 2. Mega Projects
Master plans3. Government Organisations 4. Other
Emirates Demand Forecasts 5. ADWEC Assumptions
All SectorsMega Projects / Non-Mega
Projects Other Emirates
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ADWEC Demand Forecast Data Sources
Official Data Sources
ADWECIndependent Research
ADWECPublic Sources Database

• ADWEC Site Visits
• Publications
• MEED magazine
• Gulf News
• Khaleej Times
• Property Weekly
• Arabic Newspapers
• Internet
• gulfnews.com
• khaleejtimes.com
• uaeinteract.com
• ameinfo.com
• gulfconstructionworldwide.com
• aldar.com
• sorouh.com
• other developers websites
• google.co.uk

• Database created using public sources only
• Private developer information is not used in the
  Public Database.
• Public Database is used as
• Project Checklist
• Project Population Check
• Create Comparison Forecast
• ADWEC generic assumptions(e.g. 3 kW per capita)
• Public Sources Database
• Comparison Forecast

• Urban Planning Council
• Transmission Code
• Distribution Companies Transmission
  Company
• 2005 Census
• Developers Plans
• 2001 Census
• Customer Databases
• Abu Dhabi Departments
• UAE Ministries
• Customer Requests

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Abu Dhabi Metropolitan Area
Population Forecasts
ADWECs Base Demand Forecasts now based on UPCs
Plan Abu Dhabi 2030
Source Urban Planning Council Plan Abu Dhabi
2030
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(No Transcript)
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ADWEC Base Electricity Methodologyfor
Residential / Commercial Mega Projects
Mega Projects Developers Connected Load Forecasts
ADWEC Demand / Diversity Factors
Developers Connected Load x ADWEC Demand /
Diversity Factors Unadjusted Developers Mega
Projects Peak Demand Forecast
Peak Demand Forecast Adjustment Factors for 2013
/ 2020 / 2030 UPCs Total Population
Forecasts versus Mega Projects Developers Total
Population Forecasts
Mega Projects Population Curve Pro-rated to
obtain Intermediate Years
ADWEC Base Electricity Demand Forecast
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Mega Projects Forecasting Uncertainties

• Timing / Size of Mega Projects.
• Implementation needs to be synchronized with the
  development of utility capacity and vice versa.
• Shortage of contractors / labour could result in
  delays.
• Mega Projects Developers timing estimates are
  usually optimistic, actual timing is likely to be
  delayed by at least 1 2 years.
• Population
• Population / Number of new expatriates living in
  Mega Projects.
• Developers Demand Forecasts provided to ADWEC.
• Relationship between Electricity Peak Demand and
  Electricity Connected Load depends on Demand
  Diversity Factors.
• Peak Demand will likely lag Connected Load
  because of lag associated with moving in etc.
• Unannounced Mega Projects - less important now
  that UPC in place.
• District Cooling use in place of Conventional
  Air Conditioning.
• Waste Water Desalinated water use in Irrigation
  / District Cooling etc.
• Industry Zonescorp (Special Economic Zones /
  clusters /worker cities), Khalifa Port Industrial
  Zone (KPIZ), ADBIC and ADNOC etc.

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ADWECElectricity Demand Forecasts2008 - 2030
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Electricity Demand Forecast Highlights

• UPCs Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 now incorporated into
  forecast. (gt lower short-medium term demand
  but higher long-run demand v ADWEC 2007
  forecast).
• Khalifa Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ) now added to
  forecast. (gt higher demand v ADWEC 2007
  forecast).
• New Mega Projects 8 GW (2030) connected load
  since January 2007. (gt higher Residential /
  Commercial Mega Projects demand v ADWEC 2007
  forecast).
• ADNOC Group of Companies higher demand
  forecast. (gt higher demand v ADWEC 2007
  forecast).
• Inclusion of Al Ains Mega Projects (including
  industry) for the first time. (gt higher demand
  v ADWEC 2007 forecast).

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ADWEC Electricity Base Peak Demand Forecasts
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ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Electricity Base Forecast
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ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Electricity Base Forecast
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ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008Base Electricity Peak
Demand Forecast
Forecast 6.7 per annum average growth rate 2007
2030 versus Historic 7.6 per annum average
growth rate 1990 2007
2007 2030 Forecast growth rate lower than
historic growth rate of 1990 2007.
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ADWECWater Demand Forecasts2008 - 2030
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ADWEC Water Peak Demand Forecasts
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ADWEC Water Peak Base Demand Forecasts
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Winter 2007 / 2008 Water Peak Forecast by Sector
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ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Water Base Peak Forecast
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ADWEC Winter 2007 / 2008 Water Peak Forecasts
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ADWECCapacity Forecasts2008 - 2030
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Abu Dhabi Electricity Capacity v Demand
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Abu Dhabi Water Capacity v Demand
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SUMMARY
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Summary

• Mega Projects will significantly increase
  demand (v pre-2005 forecasts).
• UPCs Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 included in ADWECs
  Base Demand Forecast for the first time.
• UPCs Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 implies slower short
  term growth in demand but higher long term
  growth in demand (v ADWEC 2007 forecast).
• Khalifa Port Industrial Zone (KPIZ) included in
  forecast for first time.
• New IWPP capacity will likely be required from
  2012 / 2013.
• Other Emirates demands are not included in
  this presentations forecasts.
• ADWEC will update its forecasts at the end of
  2008.

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THANK YOU
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Peak Generation Capacity (Gross MW)
Existing / Under Construction / Planned Capacity
Note The amount of external consumption to be
met by ADWEC was under discussion at the time
that this presentation was being prepared and so
no quantities are shownin the above table after
2007. ADWEC will provide updated guidance at the
MEED Power Water 2009 conference, once ongoing
discussions have been completed.
39
Peak Desalination Capacity (Gross MGD)
Existing / Under Construction / Planned Capacity
Note The amount of external consumption to be
met by ADWEC was under discussion at the time
that this presentation was being prepared and so
no quantities are shownin the above table after
2007. ADWEC will provide updated guidance at the
MEED Power Water 2009 conference, once ongoing
discussions have been completed.