IA Case Study: Zhangye Prefecture, Heihe River Basin

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IA Case Study Zhangye Prefecture, Heihe River
Basin

• Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering
  Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Science

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Content

• Introduction Study Region and GFG
• Methodology
• Findings and Discussion
• Demographic Variables
• Social Assessment
• Economic Assessment
• Ecological Assessment
• Conclusions and Recommendations

3
Introduction

• Figure1 Sketch of the Heihe River Basin (Map by
  Ran You-hua,
• from Http//heihe.westgis.ac.cn)

4
Introduction
Figure2 Sketch of the Heihe River Basin (Map by
Ran You-hua, from Http//heihe.westgis.ac.cn)
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Introduction The Grain to Green (GTG) as CS Land
Use Scenarios

• In 1998, after the devastating floods along the
  Yangtze River, the crisis clearly prompted the
  action to the natural conservation and
  environmental protection in China. The central
  government announced the establishment of the
  Nature Forest Protection Project (NFPP) in an
  effort to halt the destruction of natural
  forests.
• The Grain for Green Project was initiated to
  return cultivated land on the slopes of 25or
  more to forestland in the upper Yangtze River
  Basin and the middle and upper Yellow River
  Basin. Grain for Green Project has been applied
  to inland rivers basin from 2002.
• Government subsidy 1,500 kg grain , a fee of 300
  Yuan for education and health care and 750 Yuan
  as a seedling fee per hectare.

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Introduction
Table1 Brief information of Grain for Green
Project of Zhangye Prefecture (104ha)
Year Farmland forestation Bare mountain forestation Grass area Total area
2002 1.20 0.00 0.00 1.20
2003 1.56 1.30 0.07 2.93
2004 0.10 0.75 0.00 0.85
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Methodology
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Methodology

• Table 2 The distribution of householder surveyed
  in Zhangye Prefecture

County/District Area of Grain for Green Project (104ha) Number of householders
Ganzhou District 0.37 30
Minle County 1.79 97
Linze County 0.39 21
Gaotai County 0.28 12
Sunan County 0.12 14
Shandan County 2.04 139
Total area of Grain for Green Project from
2002 to 2004
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Findings and Discussion

• Demographic Variables

Table 3 The age and education level of
respondents
Age segment Person Percentage () Education level Person Percentage ()
18-24 year 53 16.93  Illiterate 3 0.96
25-35 year 127 40.58 Elementary school  61 19.49
36-50 year 114 36.42   Junior high school 180 57.51
51-61 year 16 5.11  Senior high school  61 19.49
62-72 year 2 0.64 Junior college or university 8 2.56
73 year 1 0.32 Junior college or university  
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Social Assessment

• The theory of fundamental orientation (IISD,
  1999) is used to evaluate the social
  sustainability of Grain for Green Project in
  Zhangye Prefecture.
• The theory of fundamental orientation was applied
  by (Xu and Cheng 2001) in Heihe region, which
  produced a train of thought to solve complex
  problems with complicated system structure.

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Social Assessment-cont.

• The social sustainability indicators
  contribution of alternative social system
  attributes are expressed by equal intervals from
  0 to 4 (1 is the interval).
• It is assumed that
• 0 1 the social system attribute is absolute
  dissatisfactory
• 1 2 the attribute is at dangerous level
• 2 - 3 is good and
• 3 - 4 is excellent.

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Social Assessment-cont.

• Table 4 The assessment results of social
  sustainability of Grain for Green Project in
  Zhangye Prefecture

Basal attributes Indicator Assessment results
Existence Food stock 1.76
Effectiveness The probability of insisting on the Grain for Green Project 3.60
Freedom of action cash stock 2.26
Security Strained or relax time 2.98
Adaptability Desire of providing children with more educational chance 3.68
Coexistence The womens proportion of a family income 2.32
Psychological needs The accomplishment feeling 3.09
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Economic Assessment

• Respondents write 6 kinds of information about
  income and payout of Grain for Green Project
• The income and payout of the cultivated land
  before converted into forest or grass
• The payout and subsidies of the cultivated land
  after converted into forest or grass
• The payout of bare mountain forestation land
• The net income of working out migration
• The net income of other jobs such as machining
  primary products using spare time for
  cultivated land decrease
• The net income and payout of planting grass and
  breeding livestock

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Economical Assessment

• I02G02A02(B02-C02-D02E02)
• I02G02 the net income of 2002 by converting
  cultivated land into forest or grass in
  2002
• A02 the area of farmland forestation
• B02 the subsidies of unit area in 2002
• C02 the payout of farmland forestation unit area
  in 2002
• D02 the net income of the cultivated land before
  converted into forest or grass
• E02 the net income of unit area of working out
  migration and other jobs in 2002.

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Economical Assessment

• I03G02A02(B03-C03E03)
• I03G02 the net income brought from the 2002 GFG
  to 2003
• A02 the area of farmland forestation in 2003
• B03 the subsidies of unit area in 2003
• C03 the payout of farmland forestation unit
  area in 2003
• E03 the net income of unit area of working out
  migration and other jobs in 2003.

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Economical Assessment

• The calculation of net income of 2004 by
  converting cultivated land into forest or grass
  in 2002 is the same as that in 2003.
• All the income and payment are expressed of
  present value
• The interest rate used in calculation is 1.584,
  which is the interest rate all big banks in China
  used as one year fixed deposit from February 2002
  then deduct 20 interest tax
• The calculation of net income of 2003 in 2003 and
  2004, and net income of 2004 in 2004 follow the
  anterior way too

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Economical Assessment

• Table 5 Farmers Net income from Grain for
  Green Project in Zhangye Prefecture (2002-2004)
  
• 
  unit104 Yuan

The year of Grain for Green Project Net income of 2002 Net income of 2003 Net income of 2004
2002 2,565.75 4,736.16 5,134.81
2003 - 230.52 5,539.65
2004 - - -977.27
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Ecological Assessment

• Table 6 Mean values of NPP and NEP of different
  land cover in west China in 2002

Land cover NPP (gC/m2/year) NEP (gC/m2/year)
Land with trees 680 155
Shrub land 473 99
High coverage grassland 231 31
Farm land 492 96
Bare land 58 9
Lu, L. Study on the net primary productivity
and the carbon dynamics of west China (thesis of
doctor's degree).
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Ecological Assessment

• Table 7 The area of Grain for Green Project in
  Zhangye Prefecture (2002-2004) unit ha

Year Farmland forestation Farmland forestation Farmland forestation Bare mountain forestation Bare mountain forestation Bare mountain forestation
Year Arbor Shrub Grass Arbor Shrub Grass
2002 4053.33 7946.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2003 3328.04 12309.68 722.83 1162.49 11810.30 0.00
2004 132.81 867.19 0.00 1000.52 6532.81 0.00
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Ecological Assessment

• Table 8 The increment of NPP and NEP of Grain
  for Green Project in Zhangye Prefecture
• (2002-2004) unit t

The year of Grain for Green Project Increment of NPP Increment of NPP Increment of NPP Increment of NEP Increment of NEP Increment of NEP
The year of Grain for Green Project 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004
2002 6,110.43 6,110.43 6,110.43 2,629.88 2,629.88 2,629.88
2003 - 58,275.04 60582.15 - 14,189.58 14,832.02
2004 - - 33,469.63 - - 7,444.70
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Conclusions and Recommendations

• Using the theory of fundamental orientation, the
  assessment results of social sustainability of
  Grain for Green Project in Zhangye Prefecture
  is ranked as good .
• The Grain for Green Project in Zhangye
  Prefecture from 2002 to 2004 can bring 172.30
  million net incomes to the farmers in the three
  years .
• Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is increased by
  170,658.11 t and the amount of Net Ecosystem
  Productivity (NEP) is increased by 44,355.94 t by
  Grain for Green Project from 2002 to 2004 in
  Zhangye Prefecture .

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Conclusions and Recommendations

• Increase the farmers enthusiasm and help them to
  overcome the difficulties in the implementation
  of the project.
• Increase the area of the Grain for Green
  rationally.
• Increase the proportion of grassland-covered area
  rationally.
• Develop the grass and stock breeding industry
  rationally.

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Thank you!