Aviation Training Market Outlook

1
The Challenge of Growth

• Aviation Training Market Outlook

Marsha Bell
Vice President, Marketing Alteon Training
2
The Airline Economic Engine

• 4 million direct jobs
• US400 billion industry supporting US3 trillion
  in economic output
• 24 million related jobs and US 1.4 trillion in
  related effect
• 4.5 of global GP

3
Explosive Fleet Growth
Source Boeings 2007 Current Market Outlook
4
New Airplane Deliveries Through 2026
Oceania
China
NE Asia
SE Asia
SW Asia
Mid East
Europe CIS
Africa
Latin America
North America
Percentage of Global Market

• New Single-Aisle Airplane Deliveries for 20 Years
• Asia-Pacific to receive 25
• Americas to receive 43
• Europe-Middle East-Africa-CIS to receive 32

• New Twin-Aisle Airplane Deliveries for 20 Years
• Asia-Pacific to receive 42
• Americas to receive 22
• Europe-Middle East-Africa-CIS to receive 36

Source Boeing CMO 2007
5
The Worlds Fleet Will Double Over the Next 20
Years
2006
2006
18,230 airplanes
18,230 airplanes
6
North America
7
Asia Pacific
8
Europe
9
Africa Middle East
10
Latin America
11
Pilot Demand to Support Fleet Growth Pilot
Retirements (2006-2026)
13,000
Numbers represent the total pilots needed to
support fleet growth pilot retirements between
2006-2026
12
Americas Pilot Demand
2006 Pilot Demand / New Pilot Demand
Numbers on map represent the total pilots needed
to support fleet growth pilot retirements
between 2006-2026

• Pilots needed to support fleet growth pilot
  retirements
• Canada and the USA will need an average of 5,600
  new pilots per year
• Central South America will need an average of
  1,200 new pilots per year

13
Europe-Middle East-Africa-CIS Pilot Demand
2006 Pilot Demand / New Pilot Demand
Numbers on map represent the total pilots needed
to support fleet growth pilot retirements
between 2006-2026

• Pilots needed to support fleet growth pilot
  retirements
• Europe and the CIS will need an average of 4,300
  new pilots per year
• Middle East, and Africa will need an average of
  1,200 new pilots per year

14
Asia-Pacific Pilot Demand
2006 Pilot Demand / New Pilot Demand
Numbers on map represent the total pilots needed
to support fleet growth pilot retirements
between 2006-2026

• Pilots needed to support fleet growth pilot
  retirements
• China will need an average of 2,500 new pilots
  per year
• NE SE Asia will need an average of 2,400 new
  pilots per year
• SW Asia Oceania will need an average of 1,000
  new pilots per year

7,000 4 20,100
15
Industry Impact of Forecast

• Infrastructure Build Up
• Air Traffic Management
• Ground-based systems and support
• Training resources
• Personnel Supply and Demand
• Increased churn yields decreased experience on
  flight deck
• Low cost carrier with higher priced pilots
• Consolidation trend accelerated
• Instructor resources

16
Training Implications of Forecast

• Vertically integrated, Airline specific,
  Type-specific training
• Emphasis on competency metrics, regular screening
  and progressive training to proficiency
• Increased Human Factors (MCC/CRM) and Safety
  Training (TEM, Upset Recovery)
• Increased emphasis on simulation

Train for the work to be done Using tools from
the workplace
17
Maintenance training shortcomings

• Aircraft visits are look but dont touch
• OJT tasks determined by aircraft need, not by
  training need
• OJT not coordinated with theory course
• OJT problematic for 3rd party trainees
  (insurance, liability, security)

18
Future Vision of Maintenance Training

• Reduced focus on systems instruction, increased
  focus on training for competence
• No visible distinction between theoretical and
  practical training
• Training is delivered in class using the same
  tools as used on the line to support the aircraft
• Classroom simulation replaces on-aircraft
  training as it has for flight training

19
Challenges for Industry

• Shift to competency-based culture and training
  standards
• Competency definition and measurement tools
• Global curriculum and exam standards
• Agreement on Crew Concept, TEM CRM instructor
  qualifications / training requirements across all
  licenses
• Logging training time and competencies
  demonstrated
• Instructor shortage vs. instructor career path
• Recurrent training renewal
• Command competencies and training
• English language proficiency

20
Can we sustain the growth?
Will we make the choices necessary?
Infrastructure Pilots and Training Maintainers
and Training