Flying South: Baby Boomers, Retirement, and Changing Religiosity

1
Flying South Baby Boomers, Retirement, and
Changing Religiosity
Society for the Scientific Study of
Religion Louisville, KY 2008

• Christopher Born
• The Catholic University of America
• Washington, DC
• 29born_at_cua.edu

2
Cohort on the Move

• Baby Boomers
• 77 million strong
• Born between 1946 and 1964
• Broken down into two segments (older and younger)
• Following current trendtheyll be on the move
• Over 2 million residents over the age of sixty
  had moved in the 5 years preceding the 2000 U. S.
  Census.
• This is a 9 percent increase over the 1990
  estimate.
• Number is expected to continue to rise when the
  massive number of baby boomers retire

3
Will the Boomers be flying South?

• Ten States Sending the Most Outmigrants
• Table shows only those outmigrants who are 60
  years of age or older who moved in the 5-year
  migration period prior to the censuses from 1990
  and 2000 (Longino and Bradley, 2003).
• 1990 2000

Rank State State
1 NY 222,781 11.7 NY 208,335 10.0
2 CA 187,240 9.8 CA 192,590 9.3
3 FL 128,561 6.8 FL 172,476 8.3
4 IL 107,136 5.6 IL 99,772 4.8
5 NJ 106,556 5.6 NJ 91,955 4.4
6 PA 78,903 4.2 OH 77,854 3.8
7 MI 74,661 3.9 PA 77,587 3.7
8 OH 74,271 3.9 TX 75,929 3.7
9 TX 69,856 3.7 MI 70,441 3.4
10 MA 56,737 3.0 MA 57,488 2.8
Total Interstate Migrants 1,901,105 2,074,857
of tot in top 10 58.2 54.2
in highlighted 34.9 30.1

4
Will the Boomers be flying South?

• States Ranked by Net Number of Migrants
• Table shows only those migrants who are 60 years
  of age or older (Longino and Bradley, 2003).
• 1985 1990 1995-2000

Rank State of Immigrants of Outmigrants Net of Migrants State of Immigrants of Outmigrants Net of Migrants
1 FL 451,709 128,561 323,148 FL 394,254 172,476 221,778
2 AZ 98,756 38,280 60,476 AZ 134,583 53,912 80,671
3 NC 64,530 26,436 38,094 NC 74,937 40,647 34,290
4 NV 43,131 16,193 26,938 NV 61,627 27,734 33,893
5 OR 43,996 22,777 21,219 SC 47,972 20,384 27,588
6 SC 34,251 16,015 18,236 TX 100,700 75,929 24,771
7 WA 47,484 29,345 18,139 TN 50,273 32,491 17,782
8 GA 44,475 28,475 16,000 GA 57,992 42,975 15,017
9 AR 29,848 18,454 11,394 VA 59,976 49,716 10,260
10 TN 36,306 26,133 10,173 MO 40,946 32,563 8,383


5
Why all the fuss?

• Data shows that millions of Boomers will be (and
  have been) following the trend of heading south
  after retirement
• U.S. Census data on new housing construction
• Retirement plantations developing
• St. James, The Villages, etc.
• Baby Boomers are the lead cohort when it comes
  to setting trends politically, career oriented,
  morally, or religiously (Roof and Johnson 1993).
• What impact will this southern flight have on the
  religious landscape, denominations, and on
  congregational life itself?

6
Is Southern Flight Unique?

• Why is the migration of millions of Boomers to
  southern states different than local or other
  regional migration?
• North IL, MI, NJ, NY, OH, and PA
• South GA, NC, SC, and TN
• Regional differences in the United States in
  religious makeup in very significant
• This is especially the case when considering the
  highest outmigrant states in the North and the
  highest inmigrant states in the South.
• What will the Baby Boomers in the North face when
  heading south?

7
Southern Distinctiveness Religious Landscape
(2000)States measured in the North IL, MI, NJ,
NY, OH, and PA
Social Explorer - Religion Report Social Explorer - Religion Report Social Explorer - Religion Report
Religious Bodies (2000)  IL MI NJ NY OH PA "North" Total US
Population (year 2000)  12,419,293 9,938,444 8,414,350 18,976,457 11,353,140 12,281,054 73,382,738 281,421,839
All Religions                 
All Religions (unadjusted)                 
    Ad Rate -  of Population  55.29 41.83 57.74 60.39 44.94 57.95 53.91 50.23
Major Religions                 
Catholic Congregations                 
    Congregations  1,125 888 774 1,784 1,000 1,624 7,195 21,791
    Adherents  3,874,933 2,019,926 3,403,020 7,550,491 2,231,832 3,802,524 22,882,726 62,035,042
    Ad Rate -  of Population  31.2 20.32 40.44 39.79 19.66 30.96 31.18 22.04
Evangelical Protestant                 
    Congregations  4,783 3,803 1,118 2,872 5,038 4,074 21,688 139,872
    Adherents  1,277,038 1,073,256 203,910 559,060 1,129,641 704,204 4,947,109 39,935,307
    Ad Rate -  of Population  10.28 10.8 2.42 2.95 9.95 5.73 6.74 14.19
Mainline Protestant                 
    Congregations  3,593 2,432 1,952 4,479 4,628 6,686 23,770 83,229
    Adherents  1,179,199 789,402 577,490 1,290,577 1,460,625 2,134,172 7,431,465 26,150,866
    Ad Rate -  of Population  9.49 7.94 6.86 6.8 12.87 17.38 10.13 44,467.46
8
Southern Distinctiveness Religious Landscape
(2000)States measured in the South TN, GA, NC,
and SC
Social Explorer - Religion Report Social Explorer - Religion Report Social Explorer - Religion Report
Religious Bodies (2000)  Tennessee Georgia North Carolina South Carolina South Tot United States
Population (year 2000)  5,689,283 8,186,453 8,049,313 4,012,012 25,937,061 281,421,839
All Religions             
All Religions (unadjusted)             
    Adherence Rate -  of Population  51.07 44.78 45.36 47.57 46.77 50.23
Major Religions             
Catholic Congregations             
    Congregations  152 179 180 118 629 21,791
    Adherents  183,161 374,185 315,606 136,719 1,009,671 62,035,042
    Ad Rate -  of Population  3.22 4.57 3.92 3.41 3.89 22.04
Evangelical Protestant             
    Congregations  7,156 6,144 6,866 3,526 23,692 139,872
    Adherents  2,102,490 2,273,901 2,058,831 1,179,544 7,614,766 39,935,307
    Ad Rate -  of Population  36.96 27.78 25.58 29.4 29.36 14.19
Mainline Protestant             
    Congregations  2,147 2,297 3,780 1,730 9,954 83,229
    Adherents  551,186 824,493 1,170,758 531,743 3,078,180 26,150,866
    Ad Rate -  of Population  9.69 10.07 14.54 13.25 11.87 44,467.46
9

• 31 of the population are Catholic adherents

Northern Catholics
SOUTHERN LANDSCAPE

• 4 of the population are Catholic adherents
• 29 are Evangelicals

10
Differences outside and within

• There are substantial differences between
  northern and southern culture
• There are substantial differences between
  northern and southern religious adherent rates
• BUT there are also differences within
  denominations between the two regions
• Northern Evangelicalism ? Southern Evangelicalism
• Samuel S. Hill (1980)
• Northern Catholicism ? Southern Catholicism
• Anderson and Friend (1995), CARA, Gallup Catholic
  Poll

11
Differences within Catholicism

• Anthropological approach Anderson and Friend,
  The Culture of Bible Belt Catholics (1995)
• Sacralization of society and a spiritual turn
  inward ? leads to good manners and avoiding
  conflict
• Preference for personal relations and reserved
  religious identity to the personal side of life.
• More focus on family and parish and not so much
  on the larger institution
• The church is woven into family traditions
• Family is the fundamental social unit ? families
  are the cores of parishes
• Key question How do northern Catholics adapt to
  this distinct manifestation of their religion?

12
Differences within Catholicism

• Sociological approach CARA data (Center for
  Applied Research of the Apostolate, 2008)

Of Catholics attending mass at least few times a year
South Northeast Midwest
...say hearing the reading of the Gospel is very important to them 76 60 57
...say prayer and reflection is very important 84 67 61
say that "Jesus is really present in the Eucharist" best agrees with their belief 69 48 59
13
Differences within Catholicism

• Sociological approach CARA data (Center for
  Applied Research of the Apostolate, 2008)

Those who strongly agree with the statements
South Northeast Midwest
I am proud to be Catholic 62 53 49
Sacraments are essential to my faith 48 32 36
Answering very important to what it means to be Catholic
South Northeast Midwest
Attending mass 46 31 42
Living life consistent with Church teaching 44 34 34
Having devotion to Mary 46 33 35
14
Differences within Catholicism

• Sociological approach Gallup Catholic Poll, 1999
• Asked of Catholics How important is the spirit
  of community among Catholics?

Not at all Somewhat Very
Southeast 9.4 39.0 51.6
East Central 1.9 32.7 63.8
New England 4.0 34.4 61.7
The correlations are significant at .05 level

• How does the emphasis on personal religious
  identity impact more migrating Catholics who were
  more community oriented?

15
Competing factors in influencing religious
behavior of migrating retired Catholic Baby
Boomers

• Positive impact/enhancing and increasing
  behaviors
• Adaptation
• South is more religious in measures of
  attendance and salience
• Spill-over effect of highly religious areas
  across denominational lines (De Vaus, 1982
  Stump, 1984)
• Life-cycle changes
• As people get older, they engage in their
  religion more
• Will this really be the case with this
  generation?
• Becoming minority religion
• Stark, Finke, Iannaccone and rational choice
  theorists
• More free time
• Desire to socialize and meet people in new
  location

16
Competing factors in influencing religious
behavior of migrating retired Catholic Baby
Boomers

• Negative impact/decreasing behaviors
• Social Dislocation
• Loss of impetus for attending services
• Family/friends are not around to maintain
  behavior
• Loss of location-specific religious capital
• Time needed to rebuild religious capital
• Fewer Catholic churches, less choice
• Churches located primarily around more urban city
  centers
• More distance to travel
• Can high gas prices play into this?

17
How will the competing factors play out?

• Need for a case-study
• Diocese of Raleigh, NC
• Rapid population growth (U.S. Census estimates)
• Rapid increase in Catholic market share
• Percentage of diocese population Catholic (OCD)
• 1980 ? 1990 ? 1995 ? 2000 ? 2007
• 1.6 ? 2.4 ? 3.0 ? 4.2 ? 4.8
• Increase in Catholics is not due to new baptisms
  and conversions, but a result of migration (OCD)
• Less external immigration than FL, NV, AZ
• High rates of older in-migrants in coastal
  counties