Operational Effects Modeling for Defense Against ChemBio Warfare

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Operational Effects Modeling for Defense Against
Chem-Bio Warfare

• Presented by
• Eric Lowenstein
• Paper 04S-SIW-154
• Track/Forum MED
• April 20, 2004
• Lincoln, 1100 - 1130

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Operational Effects Modeling for Defense Against
Chem-Bio Warfare
Tom Sterle Simulation Technologies, Inc. 4027
Executive Drive Beavercreek, OH
45431 937-431-8986 sterlet_at_stiusa.com
Roland Barratt Defense Science and Technology
Lab Porton Down, Salisbury Wiltshire, SP4 0JQ,
UK 01980 614691 rbarratt_at_dstl.gov.uk

• Eric Lowenstein, Tom Stark
• Cubic Applications, Inc.
• 5695 King Center Drive
• Alexandria, VA 22315
• 703-924-3050
• eric.lowenstein_at_cubic.com tom.stark_at_cubic.com

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Discussion Topics

• What Is Operational Effects Modeling?
• Why Is It Necessary?
• Current Development Efforts
• STAFFS
• REASON
• The JOEF Program

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What Is Operational Effects Modeling?
Operational Effects Modeling is the simulation of
a set of mechanical processes and human
activities pertaining to a complex mission.
These processes and activities are modeled
individually within the simulation to provide the
most accurate depiction of reality. This allows
examination of the sensitivities of the mission
to the characteristics of individual components,
including the quantity, design, configuration,
and operation of resources and equipment, as well
as the quantity and performance of personnel.
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Why Is It Necessary?

• Ideal methodology for defense against chemical
  and biological warfare
• Determine requirements for and operational
  sensitivities to
• Quantities of resources, personnel and equipment
• Performance of personnel and equipment
• ConOps
• Predict operational sensitivity to the
  characteristics of an attack
• Contrive methodologies to defend against an
  attack
• Be prepared
• Inexpensive alternative to live simulation

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Vulnerability Assessment Tool Results
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Current Development Efforts

• STAFFS
• Simulation, Training, and Analysis For Fixed
  Sites model
• Developed by Air Force Research Laboratory to
  model sortie generation at an air base, but
  capable of modeling operations at any fixed site,
  such as seaports, army bases, cities, hospitals,
  etc.
• Planned development for mobile force modeling as
  well
• REASON
• Response and Effects Analysis System for
  Operational Needs tool
• Developed by Defence Science and Technology
  Laboratory for the United Kingdoms Ministry of
  Defence
• The JOEF Program
• Joint Operational Effects Federation Program
• Includes capabilities from STAFFS, NBC CREST, and
  IMPACT

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STAFFS

• Monte Carlo simulation of fixed site operations
• STAFFS is capable of simulating attacks involving
  CBW and the effects of such attacks
• Focused on the human aspect of base operations,
  STAFFS considers the health of personnel and
  their ability to perform their duties given
• Dosage received
• MOPP level
• Changes to the operating environment due to an
  attack
• Some of the data STAFFS produces
• Locations and availability of personnel,
  resources, aircraft
• Area hazard concentrations
• Personnel health and resource contamination
• Detector history and current reading
• Status of tasks, activities, flights and missions

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STAFFS Display
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REASON

• Monte Carlo simulation of fixed site operations
• Developed by the Defence Science and Technology
  Laboratory for the Defense Threat Reduction
  Agency
• REASON estimates the movement of a hazard cloud
  over complex terrain on a site populated by
  personnel, buildings, vehicles, and a number of
  resources
• 5 modules
• GEDIS (Geographical and Environmental Database
  Information System)
• MAUI (Modeling Applications User Interface)
• Resample
• Resample Controller
• IMPACT (Integrated Modeling Platform with Agent
  Controlled Tasking)
• Output similar to STAFFS

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REASON Display
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The JOEF Program

• Model-based decision support information system
  to estimate the hazardous effects of CBW on
  personnel and operations
• JOEF will support advance and operational
  planning, integrate with other Chemical/Biological
  Defense Program models, and deploy on command
  and control systems of all services
• Prototype built from three existing tools
• IMPACT model provides advanced hazard modeling
• NBC CREST estimates casualties and medical
  requirements
• STAFFS models the operational effects
• 4 Block Program
• Airbase functionality with medical requirements
• Ports
• Land, mobile, and littoral forces
• Near real-time decision support

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JOEF Prototype Architecture
Standardized APIs
STAFFS model (AFRL)
NBC CREST (OTSG)
IMPACT (DTRA)
Input Time-dependent hazard profile
Output Medical requirements, operational
effects data
Input Hazard source information
Input Time-dependent hazard profile
High-Level Architecture Run-Time Infrastructure
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Key Points

• Operational Effects Modeling is
• The simulation of a set of mechanical processes
  and human activities pertaining to a complex
  mission
• Ideal for defense against chemical and biological
  warfare
• The only way to accurately predict mission
  degradation resulting from an attack
• STAFFS and REASON are two OE models currently in
  development
• The JOEF Program prototype will combine
  capabilities from STAFFS, NBC CREST, and IMPACT