Using Fire Data to Measure Effectiveness of FireSafe Cigarettes

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Using Fire Data to Measure Effectiveness of
Fire-Safe Cigarettes

• Marty Ahrens

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The Question

• What effect do the requirements for fire-safe
  cigarettes have on the rate of
• Fires started by smoking materials?
• Deaths from fires started by smoking materials?

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From the Data

• Fires started by smoking materials cause roughly
  one-quarter of home fire deaths

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From the Data

• Fires and deaths from smoking materials have been
  on a long-term downward trend
• Rates per million population fell more sharply
• Deaths have gone up slightly recently

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From the Data

• Fires and deaths per billion cigarettes consumed
  have gone up in recent years

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Potential Measures - National

• Estimates of reported fires and deaths started by
  smoking materials before and after implementation
• Rates per million population
• Rates per billion cigarettes consumed

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Potential Measures - State

• Clear when regulation took effect
• State investigations of cigarette fire deaths
• Compliant vs. non-compliant cigarettes
• Resources and data not always available
• State statistics based on NFIRS
• More uniform reporting requirements

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Data Sources for National Fire Statistics

• National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS)
• NFPA Annual Survey

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NFIRS

• USFA runs the National Fire Incident Reporting
  System
• Participating states use standard coding
• Local NFIRS data is submitted through or released
  by states
• More than half of reported fires make it into
  NFIRS
• Not designed as a statistical sample

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Reporting Requirements Vary

• States participate voluntarily
• Different states have different reporting policies

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National Estimates

• NFIRS provides the details, but not the whole
  universe of reported fires
• NFPA survey is sample-based, so projections can
  be made about total
• Lacks detail
• Percentages of known data from NFIRS applied to
  totals from NFPA survey

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NFIRS 5.0 Smoking Materials

• Identified by Heat Source codes
• 61 Cigarette
• 62 Pipe or cigar
• 63 Heat from undetermined smoking material
• And a proportional share of
• 60 Heat from open flame or smoking material,
  other

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Summary

• Fires and deaths from smoking materials have been
  declining over the past decades
• We expect a sharper decline
• States can analyze their own progress more
  quickly
• Better understanding of own data
• Delay in getting national data
• Different implementation schedules and reporting
  practices