POS 203: Introduction to Political Science 11162006

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POS 203 Introduction to Political Science
11/16/2006

• Course status.
• Paper assignment 2.
• Returned via e-mail.
• Paper assignment 3.
• Distributed today, due 11/30 not 11/28.
• Expand description, outline, annotated
  bibliography.
• Collect 10 quantitative data points, place in
  Excel spreadsheet.
• Course Agenda
• Presentation.
• Third World democratization, economic inequality
  and state failure.
• Iran Transitions, development, and
  nuclearization.
• Iran Reaction to US election, nuclear research,
  and involvement in new US/allied Iraq strategy.
• Iraq
• Video Cases
• US Iraq Senate hearings (11/15/2006).
• Islamic Army of Iraq.

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• WMD 203 India Pakistan Iran - Iraq Nuclear
  Weapons.
• Nuclear Information Project. 2006. Status .

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• India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and Nuclear Weapons.
• Detonation of first nuclear weapon.
• India 1974 (FAS)
• Pakistan ability to test 1987 tests 1998
  (FAS).
• Iran in midst of research development nuke
  test likely near (five years) future (FAS).
• Iraq research and development program destroyed
  (FAS).
• Detonation of first thermonuclear weapon.
• Not yet, India and Pakistan, decade (at least)
  away for Iran.
• Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization
  (CTBTO).
• IAEA
• World Map of Nuclear Research Reactors.
• International Nuclear Safety Center (US. ANL.)
• World Map of Nuclear Reactors.

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• Human Development Index.
• UNDP Website animations re HDI and other
  indicators.
• Poverty and State Failure.
• State Failure Project now Political Instability
  Tast Force.
• Large n many country research project.
• 1300 variables on every country 1955 1998,
  Phase V 1955-2005.
• Definition of State Failure
• Revolutionary wars.
• Ethnic wars.
• Adverse regime changes. Major, abrupt shifts in
  patterns of governance.
• Genocides and politicides.

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• State Failure Project (continued).

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• State Failure Project (continued).

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• State Failure Project (continued).

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• State Failure Project (continued).

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• Political Instability Task Force/State Failure
  Project Phase V.

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State Failure Project Iran/Muslim States
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• Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
  Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
  Country Reports 2003.

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• Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
  Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
  Country Reports 2003.

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• Global Patterns of Democratization and Regime
  Transition Marshall/Jaggers 2005 - Polity IV
  Country Reports 2003.

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Iran in Context.

• Islam/Middle East and Central Asia
• Maps.
• Countries where Al Qaeda was/is active.
• Sunni/Shiite.
• Doctrinal difference stem from disagreement over
  succession to Muhammad, after death 632 AD.
• Merit or Bloodline.
• Majority decision merit, Abu Bakr (close
  associate of Muhammad) appointed first Caliph.
• Bloodline supporters for (cousin and son-in-law
  of Muhammad) Ali ibn Abi Talib.
• Shiite shiat Ali supporters of Ali.
• Violent interaction 656 - 680 AD, Ali and sons
  killed by Sunni faction.
• Shiite (Shiite, Shia, Shia) 10-15.

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Islam - Global Pattern of Diffusion.
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Middle East/Sunni/Shiite
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Iraq - Sunni/Shiite.
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Ibrahim al-Jaafari
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Ibrahim al-Jaafari
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Ibrahim al-Jaafari
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Ibrahim al-Jaafari
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Ibrahim al-Jaafari
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Ibrahim al-Jaafari
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Thinking About Iraq

• The politics of fear
• Economic potential
• Diversity
• Key Questions
• How did Baathists create and sustain such a
  powerful regime?
• What are the likely outcomes of the war that
  began in 2003?

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Iraq - Sunni/Shiite.
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• Iraq-Terrorism.
• NCTC now primary US government entity responsible
  for reporting terrorist events.
• NCTC reports to Office of the Director of
  National Intelligence, overall coordinating body
  for all US intelligence agencies.
• Counting methodology substantially different than
  State Department.
• Now includes all successful act of terror,
  domestic or international.
• Most recent report released April 2006.
• Figures for 2005.
• 11,000 terrorist attacks.
• 14,500 deaths.
• 56 Americans killed.
• Data transparent and available for research.
• World Incidents Tracking System.

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• Next Class 11/21/2006.
• Come to class having done assigned readings.
• Discuss Paper Assignment 3.
• Answer questions about assignment.
• No other specific announcements