Intuition and analysis

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Intuition and analysis

• Analytical thought a step-by-step, conscious,
  logically defensible process.
• Intuition signifies the opposite a cognitive
  process that somehow produces an answer,
  solution, or idea without the use of a conscious,
  logically defensible, step-by-step process.

Based on Hammond, 1996
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Intuition and analysis

• Analysis is generally identified with logic,
  mathematics, and rigorous, retraceable thought
• Intuition is generally identified with the
  mysteries of creativity, imagination, and the
  pictorial representation of ideas.

Based on Hammond, 1996
More
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Properties of intuition and analysis
Intuition and analysis
Intuition Analysis
Based on Hammond, K. R., Hamm, R. M., Grassia,
J., Pearson, T. (1987). Direct comparison of
the efficacy of intuitive and analytical
cognition in expert judgment. IEEE Transactions
on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-17, 753-770.
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Errors of intuition and analysis
Intuition and analysis
Brunswik demonstrated the difference between the
errors of analytic and intuitive cognition as
follows. He asked subjects to estimate the
height of a bar intuitively (by eye, that is) and
then examined the distribution of errors. The
error distribution followed the normal
(bell-shaped) curve, with the mean judgment at
approximately the right answer. He then asked a
second group to calculate the height of the bar
by means of trigonometry. Most of the calculated
answers were exactly correct, but those that
werent were far off the mark. Intuitive
perception is robust but imprecise analytical
cognition is precise, but subject to large
errorwhen errors are made.
Based on Hammond, 1996
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Distribution of errors in intuitive and analytic
processes
Distribution of errors for intuitive process
Distribution of errors for analytic process
Intuitive judgment
Analytic judgment
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Advantages and disadvantages of analysis
Intuition and analysis

• Advantages
• Coherence with respect to logic, relevant theory
  (e.g., probability) and empirical data can be
  assured
• Precision and reliability
• Control
• Disadvantages
• Not always available
• Catastrophic errors are possible

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Advantages and disadvantages of intuition
Intuition and analysis

• Advantages
• Always available
• Can be rapidly applied
• Robust with respect to missing information and
  unusual circumstances
• Disadvantages
• Poorly controlled process
• Lack of reliability
• Coherence is not assured

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Task properties that favor intuition
Intuition and analysis

• Uncertainty
• Large amounts of information (cues)
• Short time to make judgments
• Absence of a familiar, readily applied, explicit
  principle for organizing information into a
  judgment

Based on Hammond, 1996
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Task properties that favor analysis
Intuition and analysis

• Failure of intuitive judgment
• Availability of quantitative information
• Sufficient time to do the analysis
• Availability of a familiar, readily applied,
  explicit principle for organizing information
  into a judgment

Based on Hammond, 1996
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Reliability of intuitive and analytic processes
Intuitive judgment (r .72)
Analytic judgment (r .72)
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Stewart, (2000)

• It is generally assumed that analytic processes
  are more reliable than intuitive processes. For
  example, a computer-forecasting model is an
  analytic process that will always produce the
  same results given the same inputs. The
  reliability of such models is the primary reason
  that statistical models often outperform human
  judges and that models of judges often
  outperform the judges themselves.
• In practice, however, analytic processes are not
  perfectly reliable. Small errors in inputs can
  produce large output errors. System failure can
  also produce large errors. When errors are
  produced, they can be catastrophic.

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Analytic thought
Ibn Khaldun
(1332-1406) Geometry enlightens the
intellect and sets one's mind right. All of its
proofs are very clear and orderly. It is hardly
possible for errors to enter into geometrical
reasoning, because it is well arranged and
orderly. Thus, the mind that constantly
applies itself to geometry is not likely to fall
into error. In this convenient way, the person
who knows geometry acquires intelligence.
The Muqaddimah. An Introduction to History.
http//www.acton.org/resources/libtrad/khaldun.htm
l
Ibn Khaldun, considered the greatest Arab
historian, is also known as the father of modern
social science and cultural history.
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Analytic and intuitive thought
Pascal, Blaise (1623-1662) There are two
types of mind ... the mathematical, and what
might be called the intuitive. The former arrives
at its views slowly, but they are firm and rigid
the latter is endowed with greater flexibility
and applies itself simultaneously to the diverse
lovable parts of that which it loves.
Discours sur les passions de l'amour. 1653.
http//www.ultranet.com/rsarkiss/PASCAL.HTM
The heart has it's reasons that reason does not
know.
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Oscillation

• Hammond argues that we shift, or oscillate back
  and forth between intuition and analysis.