Effects of El Nino on the South Pacific Islands

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Effects of El Nino on the South Pacific Islands
Virginia Smith CE 394K.3, GIS in Water Resources
Term Project Presentation University of Texas at
Austin
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What is an El Nino?

• An oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in
  the tropical Pacific
• Causes global weather alterations
• Typically occur every 3-7 years
• The Christ Child

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Forming an El Nino

• Easterlies blow water to the western Pacific
• Warm water collects
• Trade winds relax and rainfall patterns begin to
  shift
• Thermocline is depressed in the eastern Pacific
  and elevated in the west
• Rainfall follows the warm water eastward

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Impacts of an El Nino

• Increase in rain in Americas (flooding,
  landslides)
• Decrease in rain in west Pacific (droughts, crop
  failure and fires)
• Fluctuation in Pacific temperature (marine life
  dramatically hurt)

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Cyclones
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Cyclones
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Small Island nationslike Samoa

• Agricultural base
• Fisheries
• Limited Infrastructure
• Destructive cyclones
• Increase in Disease

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Benefits of Prediction

• Social benefits
• Economic opportunities for agriculture,
  fisheries, forestry and energy
• Water harvesting
• Prediction for disease outbreak

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Predicting an El Nino

• Conditions in the tropical Pacific can predict
  climate variations on a short term basis
• Surface sea temperature (SST), sea level
  analysis, and monitoring winds, temperature, and
  air pressure
• Using satellites, moored buoys, drifting buoys
  and island data
• Difficult to predict

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Surface Sea Temp
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Sea Level Variations by Country
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Whats Happening Today

• Groups disagree if we are entering an El Nino or
  feeling the effects of global warming
• More cyclones
• Higher SST
• West sea surface slightly higher

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Any Questions?