Robert Atlas

1

• Robert Atlas
• NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological
  Laboratory
• February 5, 2008

2
Issue

• Hurricanes represent one of the Nations greatest
  environmental threats
• Increasing vulnerability along the Nations coast
  
• NOAA reduced track errors by about 50 over the
  last 20 years, but little progress was made to
  reduce the intensity forecast error.
• Given recent events,
• Katrina and Wilma causing catastrophic damage in
  2005
• Back-to-back Category 5 storms in the Caribbean
  Sea - Dean and Felix in 2007
• Rapid intensifiers just prior to landfall -
  Charlie (2004) and Humberto (2007)
• HIRWG and national reports calling for major
  investments in hurricane research
• The time is now for NOAA to lead an aggressive
  effort with commensurate investments to improve
  its hurricane forecasting capability.

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NOAAs Response

• Established Hurricane Forecast Improvement
  Project (HFIP)
• Develop a balanced and prioritized 10-year
  project plan building on recent reports and
  recommendations
• Define roles and responsibilities for each stage
  of plan
• Rate of progress linked to funding
• Specify stretch goals and metrics
• Develop metric for rapid intensity change and
  linkage to other existing metrics

4
HFIP Leadership (HEOB)

• The membership of the HFIP Executive Oversight
  Board (HEOB) includes
• NWS AA, Dr. John L. Hayes (Co-Chair)
• OAR AA, Dr. Richard Spinrad (Co-Chair)
• NESDIS AA, Ms. Mary Kicza
• NOS AA, Mr. John H. Dunnigan
• NMFS Senior Designee, Ms. Bonnie Ponwith
• PPI AA, Dr. Paul Doremus (Acting)
• NMAO, Director or Designee (TBD)
• Director, NHC/NWS, Dr. Edward Rappaport (Acting)
• Director, AOML/OAR, Dr. Robert Atlas
• Director, NCEP/NWS, Dr. Louis Uccellini
• Director, Office of the Federal Coordinator for
  Meteorology, Mr. Sam Williamson

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HFIP Team

• Dr. Frank Marks and Dr. Ahsha Tribble were
  selected as the Project Lead and Deputy Project
  Lead, respectively. Fred Toepfer is the Project
  Manager. They formed a project team including
• Program Manager, Environmental Modeling Program
  Mr. Fred Toepfer
• Program Designee, Local Forecasts and Warnings
  Mr. Scott Kiser
• Program Manager, Science and Technology Infusion
  or designee Dr. Chris Fairall
• NESDIS Representative Dr. Mark DeMaria
• Hurricane Program Director, Aircraft Operations
  Center Dr. Jim McFadden
• Program Manager, NMAO Aircraft Services RADM
  Phil Kenul
• HWRF Program Manager and EMC Hurricane Lead Dr.
  Naomi Surgi
• OFCM/JAG/TCR representative Mr. Mark Welshinger
• ELDP Candidate (NWS) Mr. Mark McInerney
• Executive Secretariat NWS/Dr. Daniel Meléndez
• OAR/Mr. Roger Pierce

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Significance of Rapid Intensity Change

• Rapid intensity (RI) change (30 kt in 24 hours)
  has a significant impact on preparedness and
  evacuation actions for emergency managers
• Greatest forecast challenge for hurricane
  forecasters
• Not handled well by current operational models
• High priority in HIRWG report and past NOAA
  research solicitations
• 83 of major hurricanes have at least 1 RI event
• Major hurricanes are responsible for 80 of all
  hurricane damage
• Linked to changes in storm structure and storm
  surge
• Research and operational efforts necessary to
  improve forecasts of rapid intensity change will
  also improve intensity and track forecasts.

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HFIP Performance Metrics

• Reduce average track error at Days 1 - 5
• Reduce average intensity error at Days 1 - 5
• Increase probability of detection (POD) for rapid
  intensity change for Days 1 through 5
• Decrease false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid
  intensity change for Days 1 through 5
• Quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the
  forecast guidance

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Primary HFIP Metric Goals
HFIP stretch goals for model guidance for rapid
intensification
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
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Scope of HFIP Plan

NSB
HIRWG
OFCM
Modeling and Data Assimilation Observing
Strategies and Observations T2O Critical mass
Impacts on Engineered Structures
HFIP
Ecosystem Impacts
Storm Surge
Rainfall and Inland Flooding
Socio-Economic Impacts
Predictability/ Uncertainty
Operational Needs
Forecasting
Hurricane Modification
Climate Interactions
Preparedness and Response
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HFIP Portfolio

• IMPROVE Hurricane Forecast System/Global Forecast
  System TO REDUCE ERROR IN INTENSITY AND TRACK
  FORECASTS
• OPTIMIZE observing systems TO ENHANCE research
  and operations CAPABILITIES AND IMPACTS
• EXPAND AND IMPROVE forecaster tools and
  applications TO ADD VALUE TO MODEL GUIDANCE

Addresses most HIRWG Recommendations
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HFIP Portfolio (I)

• Improve Hurricane Forecast System (HFS)/ Global
  Forecast System (GFS) to improve intensity and
  track forecasts
• ACTIVITIES NEEDED
• Develop, test, and implement
• Near (5yrs) and long term (10-15yrs) high
  resolution HFS
• Next-generation high-resolution GFS to improve
  track forecasts
• HFS, GFS and multi-model ensembles to quantify
  and bound uncertainty
• Next-generation storm surge modeling system
• Invest in research on physical processes,
  ensemble modeling, and post-processing for
  developing probabilistic forecast guidance
• Increase high performance computing (HPC)
  capability
• Increase efficiency of transition from research
  to operations

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HFIP Portfolio (II)

• Optimize Observing Systems for Research and
  Operations (modeling and direct use by
  forecasters)
• A capability is needed to evaluate the utility
  of different observing platforms and instruments
  and advise NOAA on its observing investments for
  improvements in tropical cyclone analysis,
  forecasting, and operational modeling.
• Capability is directly relevant to QuikSCAT
  evaluation and to DWL

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HFIP Portfolio (II) cont.

• ACTIVITIES NEEDED
• Establish evaluation capability to
• Support NOAA in its investment decisions on
  observing systems and platforms
• Define future research development observing
  strategies to improve hurricane prediction
• Prioritize observing systems investments targeted
  to improve forecasts of intensity change
• Demonstrate the utility of observations to
  improve HFS guidance
• Targeted field experiments focused on key
  physical processes
• Optimize transition of observing system advances
  for direct use by forecasters
• Improve access to and utility of new observations
  for the forecasters
• Streamline process to transition new observations
  and platforms into operations ---- Ensure
  life-cycle plan provides sufficient operations
  and maintenance support

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HFIP Portfolio (III)
III. Expand and improve forecaster tools and
applications to add value to NWP output

• Examples
• Observing tools Stepped-Frequency Microwave
  Radiometer (SFMR), airborne Doppler radar,
  QuikSCAT
• Applications such as Wind speed probabilities,
  Rapid Intensity Index (RII), DOD/NOAA Automated
  Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system
• Forecast product enhancements Consensus
  ensembles, model confidence

ATCF
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HFIP Portfolio (III) cont.

• ACTIVITIES NEEDED
• Fund internal and external applied research to
  develop new operational tools
• Enhance Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) to
  transition projects into operations
• Improve model guidance, observing capabilities
  and related data assimilation schemes

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Output
The overarching goal of this project is improved
forecasts and reduced uncertainty of tropical
cyclones forecasts to enhance mitigation and
preparedness by decision makers at all levels of
government and by individuals.

• Outcomes
• Improved hurricane forecast guidance
• Accelerated and streamlined transition of
  research to operations and applications
• Established evaluation capability for observing
  systems to advise NOAA on its investments to
  improve access, impact, and utility of
  observations for operations and research
• Developed strategy to increase high performance
  computing capacity and capability for hurricane
  forecasting (provide business case for
  investment)
• Expanded and developed tropical expertise for
  enhanced interaction with the operational
  modeling and research communities

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Next Steps

• Internal Reviews
• Internal Briefings (for FY09, FY10-14 budgets)
• CFO Council Feb 2008
• CIO Council Feb 2008
• NEP Feb 2008
• Engage the external community
• AGU Meeting
• AMS Annual Meeting
• Hurricane/Tropical Conferences (AMS, OCFM,
  N.H.C.)
• Considering a Request for Information (RFI)
• Congressional Staff Briefings

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Background Material
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Discussion Hurricane Charley 9-14 Aug. 2004

• Charley strengthened from a Category 2 to a
  Category 4 in only 5 hours, less than 3 hours
  prior to landfall.
• Official forecasts called for Charley to
  strengthen from a Cat 2 to Cat 3 by landfall
• In the U.S., Charley was responsible for
• 14 billion in damages
• 10 direct and 25 indirect deaths

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Discussion Hurricane Dean (2007)

• Dean RI event
• 12 UTC 17 August - 03 UTC 18 August
• Peak wind
• 85 kt to 125 kt
• change of 40 kt in 15 h
• Wind field area increase doubling of integrated
  kinetic energy (IKE)

21 UTC 16 August
09 UTC 18 August
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DiscussionFelix Rapid Intensity Change
Felix became Cat 1 at 0300 UTC 2 Sep
and Cat 5 by 0000 UTC 3 Sep
Felix intensified from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in lt 21
hours
Cat 5
Cat 4
Cat 3
Cat 2
Cat 1
WP-3D 0902I
WP-3D 0902H
WP-3D 0903I
WP-3D 0901H
AFRC C-130
Data from NHC (http//www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/20
07/FELIX.shtml?)
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DiscussionRapid Intensification Implications

• Hurricane Felix intensified from Cat 1 to Cat 5
  in lt 21 hours!
• A Felix-like forecast error in the vicinity of
  a heavily populated area would have significant
  and possibly catastrophic consequences (e.g.,
  Katrina storm surge)
• To improve forecast and reduce risks our nation
  should accelerate
• advances in the science and technology of our
  future forecast system,
• rate of adoption of the above results forecast
  operations
• improve communication to concerned decision
  makers in vulnerable areas
• Experts agree that the following areas require
  major improvements
• Scientific understanding rapid hurricane
  intensity change
• Numerical modeling capabilities (faster computers
  and better models)
• Observations of rapid intensity change as well as
  those with research value
• The scientific community as a whole recommended
  in numerous reports the need for a range of
  approaches as opposed to a any particular one

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Discussion POD vs Lead Time
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Discussion FAR vs Lead Time