Meteorology Social Science: Putting Together the Pieces

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Meteorology Social Science Putting Together
the Pieces

• Julie Demuth
• NCAR Societal Impacts Program

NCAR Undergraduate Leadership Workshop June 17,
2009
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The forecast high temperature for Boulder
tomorrow is 77?F.
What do you think the actual high temp will be?

• 77?F
• 76-78?F
• 75-79?F
• 72-82?F
• 67-87?F

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Making decisions during a tornado

• Why might someone not take shelter from a
  tornado?
• .
• .
• .

• What is the right decision?
• Is there a right decision?
• How and why do decisions get made?

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Finding your career path
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Demystifying social science

• What is social science?

• Social science is an analytical approach to
  understanding and explaining human behavior
  (including that of meteorologists!)

Communication
Sociology
Anthropology
Economics
Psychology
Human Geography
and more!
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The great spectrum
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But why do this?

• Numerous beneficial forecasts are provided daily!
  Butthe weather community and its partners are
  always looking to provide better information in
  better ways to better serve the range of users of
  forecast and warning information!!

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Thats nice and all but what the heck do you
mean??
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A 24-hr forecast from a forecasters perspective
NWS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION   ...A COLD FRONT
OVR MT AND ND WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS TIED TO A TROF OVR CANADA THAT
IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACRS CANADA
AND DRAG A FRONT SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A 30 DEGREE SPREAD FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. AFTER A MILD NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS STILL THE WILDCARD FOR TUESDAY/S HIGHS.
THE NAM/SREF ARE BOTH SLOWER IN BRINGING THE
FRONT THRU...WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
COLD AIR. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS TIGHTENING AND
THERE IS SOME GOOD BUST POTENTIAL ON THE HIGHS IN
THE NORTH IF THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD EARLIER.
BY NOON...THE FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE FM SE NEB
INTO SW IA. STILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE NORTH.
CURRENTLY HAVE LOWER 60S NORTH WITH 75 TO 80
SOUTH...HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FRONT AS
READINGS COULD BE HELD TO THE 50S NORTH.
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but heres the forecast the average user gets.
Do people want this information? How can we
communicate it effectively? How will people
interpret and use it?
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NWS public forecast page -- icons
??
Is this information confusing? What decisions
are people making based on this? How can we
communicate this more effectively?
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NWS public forecast page
NWS 48-hr text forecast Rain and snow likely
before noon, then snow. High near 30. Chance of
precipitation is 80. New precipitation amounts
between a half and three quarters of an inch
possible.
. . .
Email from a user Your site is saying 1/2 to
3/4 inch on Friday... bummer, not thinking that
will do it (cancel school)!
Should people have to check multiple products to
understand? How does inconsistent information
affect their perception and use?
. . .
NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook Snowfall amounts
in excess of 6-8
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Forecast uncertainty information
How do people perceive interpret the different
probability thresholds?
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Perceptions of warning lead time

• TORNADO WARNING
• NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
• 535 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
• THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED
  A
• TORNADO WARNING FOR... ltcountiesgt
• UNTIL 630 PM CDT

EF2 Tornado Confirmed in Harrison
County ESTIMATED TIME...TOUCHDOWN AROUND 603 PM
CDT EF SCALE RATING...EF2 ESTIMATED WINDS...125
MPH PATH LENGTH...ABOUT 9 MILES PATH WIDTH...1/4
MILE
What was the lead time?
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Perceptions of lead time by users

• It seemed like they were about 10 minutes behind
  on the warning. (paraphrasing)
• Member of the public interviewed

• It seemed like there was only a little bit of a
  warning. (paraphrasing)
• Emergency manager interviewed

So what was the lead time?
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What lead times might a user get in this case?
Estimated lead time
Sources

• 28 minutes (best case)

• Sitting in the WFO, NWSChat

• 27 minutes?

• NWR

• 25-26 minutes?

• WFO webpage

• 23-26 minutes?

• Crawled on TV, radio (EAS)?

• 23-26 minutes?

• Siren (if available)

• 0-26 minutes?

• Relayed by a broadcast meteorologist, a radio DJ

• 0-26 minutes?

• Relayed by another person

• 0-26 minutes?

• Automatic cell phone alert

• 0-2 minutes?

• Spotting the tornado

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Broadcasters dont always go on-air

• From a recent study of focus groups conducted
  with broadcast meteorologists

We have different policies on tornado warnings
here. If its in a metro area or happens to be
close to one of the cities, well go on it. But
it could be an F3 tornado out in the middle of
nowhere on the eastern plains, well just do a
crawl. Were not going to get on the air with
that and interrupt programming.
Participant 10
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Delays in transmission of information
TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER
CO 204 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2009 THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO
WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL LARIMER COUNTY IN
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 230 PM MDT AT
204 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A
TORNADO 3 MILES NORTH OF MASONVILLE...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF FORT COLLINS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TIMNATH...
MASONVILLE...LOVELAND...HARMONY...BELLVUE AND
FORT COLLINS.
Julies text message CSU ALERT Tornado Warning
is in effect for the campus area. Seek shelter
in a lower level or basement away from
windows. Received Mon, June 15 230 pm
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Forecasters decision making
3 elements to decision making
Radar
Reports
Environment
Courtesy of Daniel Nietfeld, SOO, WFO OAX
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But its still a human decision

• Tornado or severe thunderstorm warning?
• For how long?
• For what geographic area?
• Specific messages to emphasize?
• What is known?
• Calls to action?

Courtesy of Daniel Nietfeld, SOO, WFO OAX
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The 4th, 5th, 6th, nth element

• What is at stake?
• Who will be impacted by this?
• Are people awake/sleeping/driving/etc?
• Will my friends/family be hit?
• Will I (we) be hit?
• What has happened up to this point?
• Have there already been fatalities?
• What is the TV Station saying?
• Have I already missed earlier storms?
• Am I making this decision entirely on my own?
• Are there any pre-existing negative (or positive)
  public perceptions of us / me?
• How will this information be received?

Courtesy of Daniel Nietfeld, SOO, WFO OAX
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and dozens and dozens of more examples and
opportunities!
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Moving forward

• Tremendous amount of knowledge concepts,
  methodologies, theories, tools from the social
  sciences that can and should be integrated in
  partnership with meteorology!

Provide effective forecast and warning
information in improved ways for people to use to
make better decisions and to save lives and
property.
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NCAR Societal Impacts Program (SIP)

• Program to infuse social science into weather
  through
• Primary research
• Weather and Society Integrated Studies (WASIS)
• Information resources
• Development and support of societal impacts
  community

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Weather and Society Integrated Studies (WASIS)

• Capacity-building program build an
  interdisciplinary community and learn about
  integrating social science

Annual summer workshop in Boulder!
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Thank you!

• What questions do you have
• about my research or other related research?
• about getting into this type of work?
• about anything else?
• Contact me!
• Julie Demuth (jdemuth_at_ucar.edu)
• Societal Impacts Program (www.sip.ucar.edu)
• WASIS (www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis)

www.sip.ucar.edu