Title: INVESTOR WARNING
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2INVESTOR WARNING
- IF YOU
- ARE NEGATIVE ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN HEDGE FUND
INDUSTRY - THINK THE PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT SPACE IS TOO
COMPETETIVE - DO NOT LIKE A GROUP RETAINING CAPITAL FOR
PROPRIETARY INVESTMENT - THEN
- STAY CLEAR AWAY FROM PEREGRINE !
330 MINUTE PROGRAM
-
-
- GROUP SNAPSH0T
- A QUICK (BUT IMPORTANT) HISTORY
- BACK TO THE INVESTOR WARNING AND REVISITING
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES - GROUP EARNINGS PROFILE AT A GLANCE
- BUILDING A BASE CASE FOR PEREGRINES EARNINGS
(WITH SENSITIVITES) - SOME INTERESTING COMPARISONS
-
-
4GROUP SNAPSHOT
- The Peregrine group is a leading provider of
wealth and asset management solutions. The group
also houses one of the countrys leading
derivative, equity and prime-broking operations.
- Assets under management of R 30 billion.
- Quant R 14 billion
- Citadel R 12 billion
- Hedge funds R 4,5 billion
- Prime broking platform R 5 billion
- Oct 06 - 8th biggest broker by value, 5th by
volume and 2nd by deals settled. - Market capitalisation (net of treasury shares) _at_
R11.25 of R2.2 billion. -
- Trailing 12 month PE ratio of 8.5 times earnings
5GROUP HISTORY
Founded in 1996 Derivative structuring and
broking house Listed 10 June 1998 Staff
compliment of 40 Historic profit R7,7 m
Issued shares 200m, Historic EPS 4,3
cents Date Price Market Cap Historic
PE Forward PE 10 June 98 R2.50 R 500 m 58 X 11
X First trade R13.05 R 2 600 m 303 X 59 X Aug
98 (ATCH) R28.00 R 5 600 m 650 X 127 X July
03 (ATCL) R1.30 R 280 m 4.7 X ATCH all
time closing high ALTC all time closing low
6NEW VISION
- Building Peregrine to lastBut how ?
- Lots of the wrong businesses
- Lots of the wrong shareholders
- Lots of the wrong people
- with
- completely the wrong mentality
7DUAL STRATEGY
- BUSINESS LEVEL
- Exit businesses and people with the wrong
mentality - Entrench a long-term focus on wealth and
alternative investment management - SHAREHOLDER LEVEL
- Exit shareholders with the wrong mentality
- Entrench long-term wealth creation for those
willing to buy into vision
8ON AND OFF THE PEREGRINE BUS
- Treasury solutions 2001
- Asset finance 2002
- Treasury partners 2002
- Riscura 2003
- Agio 2003
- Prosperity 2003
- Peregrine Finance 2003
- Peresys 2003
- Mercury (now Peregrine Securities) 2001
- Citadel 2002
- PINC (now PIM) 2002
9Peregrines 2003 results
- Strong rand, subdued markets and effects of group
re-positioning - All 4 divisions down from previous year
- Profit from operations down 47
- Headline EPS down 51
- Operational cashflow down to only R90 million
- Cashflow of only R 90 million ?????????????
10Our share price
11Strategic Objectives (2003)
- Entrench a clear future strategy for the group as
a South African based specialised wealth and
asset management business. - Achieve brand recognition as leaders in
private-client wealth management and in
alternative investments, particularly hedge-fund
investment. - Ensure that every business within the group is
able to break-even on a monthly basis as a worst
case scenario and - Meaningfully augment ownership by the management
of the businesses.
1230 MINUTE PROGRAM
-
-
- GROUP SNAPSH0T
- A QUICK (BUT IMPORTANT) HISTORY
- BACK TO THE INVESTOR WARNING AND REVISITING
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES -
-
13Back to the INVESTOR WARNING
- Dominant player in the SA hedge fund industry
- Single strategy funds Capital and PIM R3,4bn
- Fund of Hedge Funds Caveo R1,0bn
- Prime broking Peregrine Prime R5,0bn
- Predominant focus on High Net Worth Individuals
(HNWI) - Citadel R12,0bn
-
- Proprietary investments on balance sheet R 500
m to R 700 m
1430 MINUTE PROGRAM
-
-
- GROUP SNAPSH0T
- A QUICK (BUT IMPORTANT) HISTORY
- BACK TO THE INVESTOR WARNING AND REVISITING
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES - GROUP EARNINGS PROFILE AT A GLANCE
-
-
15GROUP PROFILE Contribution to March 06
- WEALTH MANAGEMENT R 73,4 m 23
- Citadel
- ASSET MANAGEMENT R 109,4 m 34
- Hedge Funds
- Peregrine Capital
- Peregrine Investment Managers (PIM)
- Caveo FOHF (JV with IS)
- PeregrineQuant
- TRANSACTIONAL R 82,3 m 26
- Broking Structuring
- PROPRIETARY CAPITAL R 54,9 m 17
- Investment returns (net of group costs)
R320,0 m 100
16GROUP PROFILE Contribution to Sept 06
- WEALTH MANAGEMENT R 62,9 m 32
- Citadel
- ASSET MANAGEMENT R 26,0 m 13
- Hedge Funds
- Peregrine Capital
- Peregrine Investment Managers (PIM)
- Caveo FOHF (JV with IS)
- PeregrineQuant
- TRANSACTIONAL R 75,2 m 38
- Broking Structuring
- PROPRIETARY CAPITAL R 32,5 m 17
- Investment returns (net of group costs)
R196.6 m 100
1730 MINUTE PROGRAM
-
-
- GROUP SNAPSH0T
- A QUICK (BUT IMPORTANT) HISTORY
- BACK TO THE INVESTOR WARNING AND REVISITING
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES - GROUP EARNINGS PROFILE AT A GLANCE
- BUILDING A BASE CASE FOR PEREGRINES EARNINGS
(WITH SENSITIVITIES) -
-
18WEALTH MANAGEMENT
CITADEL
- Focussed on HNWI wealth management
- Clients with R 2 million plus to invest
- Average current top-up client size R 5,0
million - Average new client size R 8,0 million
- Total assets under management of R 12 billion
- New inflows of R 125 million per month
- Client retention of 96
- Annuity outflows of almost R800 million
19WEALTH MANAGEMENT
CITADEL - PROFITABILITY
- Annuity profit of over R60 m per annum
(without performance fees) - PLUS 20 performance fee above lifetime
benchmark per client - Benchmark is inflation after accounting for all
costs and taxes - High watermark catch up from late 2001/ early
2002 - Performances fees currently averaging R 7
million per month - More than 2/3rds of the client base now paying
performance fees - Strong gearing to weaker currency over time
20WEALTH MANAGEMENT
CITADEL PERFORMANCE FEE RUN RATE
- At current level of AUM of R 12 billion
- if all clients at benchmark run-rate of R 24
million per 1 real - 2/3rds of AUM at benchmark run-rate of R16
million per 1 real - 2/3rds of AUM at benchmark 5 real R 80
million fees per annum - 2/3rds of AUM at benchmark 10 real R 160
million fees per annum
21ASSET MANAGEMENT
PeregrineQuant
- Institutional asset manager with quantitative
focus - Over R14 billion in AUM
- Good annuity cashflow contributor R10 m plus
- Exciting new platform for alpha managers
22OUR INTEGRATED HEDGE FUND STRATEGY
-
- FUND OF HEDGE FUNDS / MULTISTRAT
- Caveo R 1,0 bn
- Citadel Multistrat R 1,4 bn
- Aurum JV R 2,3 bn
- SINGLE STRATEGY FUNDS
- Peregrine Capital R 2,5 bn
- Peregrine Investment Managers (PIM) R 0,9 bn
- PRIME BROKER
- Peregrine Prime R 5,0 bn
-
23ASSET MANAGEMENT
CAVEO
- Combining Peregrines hedge fund experience and
reputation - with Investment Solutions distribution, manager
access and systems - R1 billion AUM in under 12 months
- Potential to manage several billion
- Capacity with quality managers is the real issue
- Conflict of interest resolved by non-Peregrine
products
24ASSET MANAGEMENT
PEREGRINE CAPITAL
- Fundamental equity hedge fund management company
- Over R2.5 Billion in AUM
- Comfortable at current AUM , but closed to new
flows - Hedge fund 41 p.a. gross compounding since
July 98 - Performance fund 61 p.a. gross compounding
since July 98 - 50/50 economic deal with management stability
in team - Profit from annual fees of only R 16 million BUT
25ASSET MANAGEMENT
PEREGRINE CAPITAL PERFORMANCE FEES AT AUM of R
2,5 BN
26TRANSACTIONAL
BROKING AND STRUCTURING
- Peregrine Securities
- Equity Broking
- Peregrine Prime R 5 billion on platform
- Peregrine Equities 5th biggest broker by
volume - Derivative Broking top 3 broker each year
- Derivative Quantitative Research rated 1st or
2nd in SA - Structuring
27Base Case Earnings for Peregrine (note
assumptions)
28Balance sheet
- No long term debt
- In excess of R 400 million net in cash / near
cash investments - Approximately R50 million in private equity
- Approximately R 200 million cash in working
capital - Generating cash at a rate of over R 30 million
per month (pre tax) - Active balance sheet investment of R 500 million
increasing to R 700 million. - Predominantly hedge funds with up to 15 - 20
private equity and special opportunities.
29FINALLY, SOME INTERESTING COMPARISONS
- Man Group Plc (www.mangroupplc.com)
- Largest hedge fund manager listed on the LSE.
- Man Group Plc is a
- leading global provider of alternative
investment products and solutions. (and) - One of the worlds largest futures brokers.
- Assets under management _at_ 30 Sep 06 56,8
billion - Market Capitalisation - 17,8 billion
- Market cap AUM 31 !!
- (PGR excl. PQ assets - 13)
- (including PQ assets - 7)
- Historic PE 14,5 times
30ANOTHER INTERESTING COMPARISON
-
- Julius Baer (www.juliusbaer.com)
- Julius Baer is the largest pure-play wealth
manager in Switzerland. - It acquired the specialist hedge fund manager
GAM from UBS in December 2005. - GAMs AUM currently exceed 63 billion.
- Julius Baers historic PE 41 times
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