Alameda Unified School District Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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Alameda Unified School District Demographic
Trends and Forecasts

• Shelley Lapkoff, Ph.D. and Jeanne Gobalet, Ph.D.
• Lapkoff Gobalet Demographic Research, Inc.
• March 13, 2007

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Agenda

• How we categorized students in order to unravel
  the different factors that have affected
  enrollments
• Enrollment trends
• Revised enrollment forecasts
• Changes reflect latest information about Alameda
  Landing
• Capacity compared with enrollments, and comparing
  enrollees to residents
• Conclusions

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Categories of Students

• Former Naval Base
• Marina Village
• North Village
• Alameda Point

IDTs (students who live outside Alameda)
Harbor Island Apts.
Enrollment Patterns, 1999 2006
Charters

• Housing Growth
• Bayport

• Alameda Neighborhoods
• Bay Farm Island (BFI)
• East of Park, Main Island
• Park to Webster
• West of Webster, South of Atlantic

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Enrollment Patterns by Category

• Former Naval Base
• Marina Village
• North Village
• Alameda Point

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Harbor Island Apts.


IDTs (students who live outside Alameda)
Enrollment Patterns, 1999 2006 899 Student Loss
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Charters

• Housing Growth
• Bayport

• Alameda Neighborhoods
• Bay Farm Island (BFI)
• East of Park, Main Island
• Park to Webster
• West of Webster, South of Atlantic

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Enrollment Trend

• 899 Enrollment Decline between 2001-2006
• Elementary 627-student decline
• Middle school 234-student decline
• High school 38-student decline
• All enrollment figures exclude charter students,
  unless otherwise noted

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Inter-district Transfer Students

• AUSD has a large number of IDT students, which
  help buttress enrollments.
• Enrollments have been fairly stable over time.
• In analyzing historical trends it is important to
  separate the effect of IDTs to see true AUSD
  demographic patterns.
• The forecast assumes the average patterns of the
  last three years will equal each grades future
  enrollments (this assumption is easy to change).

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Former Naval Base

• Marina Village Housing newer Coast Guard
  housing
• North Village Housing older Coast Guard
  housing, now abandoned, and the site for future
  development
• Alameda Point low-income housing assistance now
  operated by Alameda Point Collaborative
• New Housing Bayport, other redevelopment areas
  on the former base

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Evictions at Harbor Island Apts. (now Summer
House)

• Occupants left 615 apartments in 2004 and 2005
• About 500 K-12 students lived in units
• About half of the students continued in AUSD
• 35 percent went to other Alameda housing
• 15 percent left Alameda and became inter-district
  transfer students
• Summer House
• 144 units are now occupied
• Remaining units will be occupied by the summer
  (units being released continuously) total will
  be 615 units
• There are now 11K-12 students in Summer House
  forecast assumes 44 total

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Alameda Neighborhoods or Subareas

• Bay Farm Island
• 2,202 students in 2006-07
• East of Park Street, Main Island
• 1,974 students in 2006-07
• Between Park and Webster Street
• 3,818 students in 2006-07
• West of Webster, South of Atlantic
• 1,064 students in 2006-07

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Migration and Housing Turnover (Grade
Progressions)
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1 2 3 4 5 etc.
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Grade Progressions

• Grade progressions are the key assumption used in
  the forecast. We start with the current students
  and age them for each year of the forecast. The
  choice of grade progression determines how their
  numbers will shrink or grow as the cohort moves
  to the next grade.
• The forecast uses an average of the last three
  years grade progressions.

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Kindergarten Enrollment and Birth Trends
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New Housing
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Housing Forecast

• Number of Students
• Number of housing units Student Yield
• Student Yield average number of students per
  housing unit

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Housing Forecast

• Number of future housing units anticipated
• Bayport Under construction, 70 students in
  October, 2006. 145 more students expected
  (including residents of 39 subsidized apartment
  units)
• Alameda Point Comprehensive Plan timing is
  uncertain 1,735 units in latest document
• Alameda Landing expected in 2010-11 up to 300
  housing units
• Northern Waterfront timing uncertain, though 40
  units are approved 500 units total
• Student Yield Average number of students per
  unit
• Varies by type, price, and age of housing
• Assume .50 yield in redevelopment areas
• Adjust assumption after Bayport has been completed

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Long-run Perspective

• Eventually, about 1,200 students expected from
  redevelopment areas
• Timing is uncertain we assume development on the
  former Naval base begins in 2015
• Likely to take many years to complete, so AUSD
  should be able to adjust gradually to steady
  student increase

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Enrollment Forecast by Category

• Former Naval Base
• .Marina Village
• .North Village
• .Alameda Point

Summer House Apts.
IDTs (students who live outside Alameda)
?
Enrollment Forecast, 2006 2011 20 Student Loss
Charters
?

• Housing Growth
• Bayport
• Former Naval Base redevelopment
• Alameda Landing
• Northern Waterfront

• Alameda Neighborhoods
• .Bay Farm Island (BFI)
• .East of Park, Main Island
• .Park to Webster
• .West of Webster, South of Atlantic

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Comparison of Current Residents with Facilities
Capacity
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Comparison of Residents and Enrollees
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Conclusions

• AUSD experienced a severe enrollment decline
  between 1999 and 2006. This resulted from a
  variety of factors.
• The enrollment decline has nearly ended.
• Eventually, about 1,200 students are expected
  from redevelopment areas, but this is in the long
  run.
• Currently, the District has excess capacity at
  each school level. IDTs use some of this
  capacity.
• A few areas have facilities shortages despite the
  district-wide excess capacity
• East of Park elementary attendance areas have
  more residents than seats
• Lincoln and AHS are close to having more
  residents than capacity
• AUSD may want to convene a study group to
  consider options regarding excess capacity and
  the mismatch of facilities and residents in East
  of Park (and perhaps other areas)

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Revised Table 1
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Revised Table 6
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Revised Table 6, cont.